Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Trends Analysis

Stall

Draw	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	3	30%	1	10%	4	40%
2	6	1	17%	2	33%	3	50%
3	8	3	38%	0	0%	3	38%
4	10	1	10%	2	20%	3	30%
5	9	2	22%	1	11%	3	33%
6	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%
7	4	0	0%	2	50%	2	50%
8	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Stalls 1-3 seem the best places to be drawn. Today, Carbon Dating runs from stall 1, Success Days from stall 2 and Cradle Mountain from stall 3.

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1st	21	8	38%	3	14%	11	52%
2nd	9	0	0%	1	11%	1	11%
3rd	9	1	11%	3	33%	4	44%
4th	5	0	0%	1	20%	1	20%
5th	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
6th	4	1	25%	0	0%	1	25%
7th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
8th	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
10th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
11th	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%

The strongest records are those of horses which finished 1^st or 3^rd last time out (as well as those which finished 6^th and 11^th due to small sample sizes in the latter two cases). Cradle Mountain and Success Days both won last time out, while Summaya was 4^th and Carbon Dating was 5^th.

Other Trends

• All of the last 10 winners made their racecourse debuts over 7f or further
• All of this year’s runners made their racecourse debuts over at least 7f
• All of the last 10 winners had won over 7f-1m 2f
• The only runner not to fit this trend is Carbon Dating who has never won
• All of the last 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
• Sire of Carbon Dating, The Carbon Unit was not a group 1 winner, and neither was Jeremy (sire of Success Days). Mastercraftsman, sire of Cradle Mountain and Azamour, sire of Summaya, both won group 1 races.
• 9 of the last 10 winners had 2-5 previous career starts
• All of this year’s runners have run 2-5 times in their careers.
• 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Carbon Dating is the rank outsider – the other three runners form the top 3 in the betting.
• 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown
• Success Days is the only course winner in the field – none of the others have run here in the past.

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Total
Carbon Dating	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	3
Cradle Mountain	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	7
Success Days	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Summaya	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	5

The big table isn’t so big today with only four runners going to post, but it is intriguing nonetheless. It says very little for the chances of Carbon Dating, who most would agree would be a highly unlikely winner – he has more than 12 lengths to find with Summaya based on his maiden run and although he improved at Epsom last time out, he shouldn’t be up to this standard. The next-worse on trends, however, is a little more surprising. Summaya won a maiden at Cork on very tough ground and the form has worked out well – Hans Holbein was behind him and went on to win the Chester Vase – and then went on to finish 4^th at Navan (the horse in 3^rd went on to win the Cheshire Oaks, however). He misses out here based on the fact that he came 4^th last time out, is drawn in stall 4 and hasn’t won at Leopardstown in the past.

This leaves us with joint winners in Success Days and Cradle Mountain. The former is the current favourite and is currently just odds-on at 10/11. He won here on bad ground a few weeks ago in the Ballysax Stakes, beating one of Ballydoyle’s leading classic hopes in the form of John F Kennedy. This form over course and distance on similar ground will surely stand to him and he’s a worthy favourite. The only trend he misses out on is the fact that he was not sired by a group 1 winner. Sire Jeremy was a winner in group 2 and 3 races but came up short in group 1 company 5 times (once by just a short head).

Cradle Mountain is in theory inferior to these opponents but does very well on trends, only failing on the fact that he has never won at the track. However, I would question the relevance of that particular trend this year, as 78% of the total field in the last 10 years had previously run at Leopardstown, while only 25% of this year’s field has. Cradle Mountain hasn’t and only 12 horses have run in the last 10 years without a previous start here – one of these has won and a further two have placed. With this in mind, I would certainly respect him based on trends even if Success Days seems the most likely winner.