Aidan O’Brien took yet another 2000 Guineas in the Curragh
yesterday with Gleneagles, who was made to fight for his victory but showed a
bit of heart and looks like he’ll be a serious miler (assuming he stays over
the mile) this season. Today, it’s time for
the fillies and again O’Brien has the hot favourite in Found.
Traditionally our trends analysis has done better in the 2000 Guineas than the
1000, better in the Derby than the Oaks – who knows why, but it doesn’t seem to
work out for us in fillies races. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see
what it has to say about today’s 1000 Guineas.
1) Stall
|
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
|
1
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
5
|
50%
|
|
2
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
4
|
40%
|
|
3
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
|
4
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
|
5
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
6
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
|
7
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
|
8
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
|
9
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
3
|
33%
|
|
10
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
11
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
|
12
|
8
|
1
|
13%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
13%
|
|
13
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
29%
|
2
|
29%
|
|
14
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
1
|
17%
|
2
|
33%
|
|
15
|
5
|
1
|
20%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
|
16
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
17
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
18
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
19
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
The success has been fairly even spread across the stalls
but we’ll focus on stalls 1, 2, 6, 9, 13, 14 and 15. Today these are filled by
Stormfly, Tamadhor, Pastoral Girl, Malabar, Steip Amach, Military Angel and
Pleasach respectively.
2) Place Last Time Out
|
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
|
1st
|
42
|
4
|
10%
|
6
|
14%
|
10
|
24%
|
|
2nd
|
21
|
2
|
10%
|
4
|
19%
|
6
|
29%
|
|
3rd
|
18
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
11%
|
2
|
11%
|
|
4th
|
15
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
7%
|
1
|
7%
|
|
5th
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
6th
|
11
|
2
|
18%
|
1
|
9%
|
3
|
27%
|
|
7th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
|
8th
|
5
|
1
|
20%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
|
9th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
10th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
40%
|
2
|
40%
|
|
11th
|
2
|
1
|
50%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
|
13th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
14th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
16th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
1
|
100%
|
|
17th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
1
|
100%
|
We’ll pay particular attention to horses which finished in
the top 2, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th,
16th and 17th last time out – these are Bocca Batiata (1st),
Devonshire (2nd), Found (2nd), Joailliere (1st),
Kissed By Angels (1st), Mainicin (7th), Pastoral Girl (2nd),
Pleasach (1st), Plus Ca Change (8th), Raydara (1st),
Russian Punch (8th), Tamadhor (2nd).
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f+
Mainicin, Pastoral Girl don’t fit this trend
Devonshire has had 7 previous starts, Joailliere has had
just one, Pastoral Girl has run 8 times, Qualify has 7 starts, and Russian
Punch and Stormfly both have 8.
5) 9 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs so far that season
Jack Naylor hasn’t run yet this season, nor has Raydara,
while Stormfly has run 3 times already this term and Tamadhor is yet to see the
racetrack this season.
6) 7 of the last 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1
Found has placed in a group 1 race, as has Jack Naylor.
The Big Table
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
Total
|
|
|
Bocca
Baciata
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Devonshire
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Found
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
|
Jack
Naylor
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
3
|
|
Joailliere
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Kissed
By Angels
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Mainicin
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Malabar
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Military
Angel
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Pastoral
Girl
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Pleasach
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
5
|
|
Plus
Ca Change
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Qualify
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
2
|
|
Raydara
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
|
Russian
Punch
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Steip
Amach
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Stormfly
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
2
|
|
Tamadhor
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
4
|
So, it’s joint at the top with Found and Pleasach both
fitting 5 of the 6 specified trends. Found misses out on a perfect record based
on the draw, not a huge loss considering the fact that there was no huge bias
to be found in the draw data – however, stall 9 has produced no wins and no
places in the last 10 years which must be worth noting. Pleasach misses out on
not having previously won or placed in group 1 company, which only two of today’s
field have. The Jim Bolger filly has yet to attempt to compete at this level
(as is the case for the vast majority of the field) but her comfortable group 3
win last time out would suggests that she may be capable of putting up a good
fight in a top class race. It’s probably going to be a no-bet race for me but
these are our two selections.
SELECTIONS: FOUND
7/4, PLEASACH E/W 9/1
As ever, the very best of luck and remember never to chase
your losses and only to bet what you can afford to lose.
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