Aintree Day 3 Preview & Selections

And so here we are. Day 3 of the Aintree meeting and the day of the greatest steeplechase on earth. You truly won’t see a race anywhere else in the world like you’ll see at 4.15 on Merseyside today, and the biggest betting event of the year is the outstanding highlight of today’s card. However, it can be easy in the midst of the Grand National to forget about the top class support card that makes Grand National day the full day of fantastic racing that it is.

So, after great profits on day one, followed by only one winner from three races on day two, we’re in profit going into the final day. Today, though, will be make or break, and fearless punting is the order of the day at Aintree. Grand National day is one where you could win or lose a fair amount of money, and hopefully we’ll come out on the right side of that, thanks to the supporting card and the big race itself.

1.30 – Mersey Novices Hurdle – 2m 4f – Grade 1

We’ve successfully picked the winner in the opening race on both of the first two days of the Grand National meeting and that’s a trend I wouldn’t mind continuing today. However, instead of selecting the favourite, like yesterday, it’s value I’ll be looking for today, as was the case when we selected 7/1 Guitar Pete on Thursday.

Volnay De Thaix at 9/1 had his only defeat in the UK to Irving in a Grade 2 at Ascot, which is of no shame considering that the Supreme Novices (where Irving flopped but was well fancied) form is proving rock solid this week with plenty of winners coming from the race. That defeat was a good run when he was hampered by a faller at the last, and although he wouldn’t have beaten Irving, he stayed on very well to get 2^nd.

Volnay De Thaix doesn’t deserve the long odds he has been handed considering that he is one of onle a couple of horses in the field who have had success at a higher class. The ground will be ideal today and although he will have 4 furlongs to find on previous form, his run behind Iriving would suggest that he will have no trouble for a longer trip, based on how well he stayed on after the last. Although he has had no previous starts at Aintree (the only horse who does is Splash Of Ginge, who Volnay De Thaix beat in that same race) I think that the track will be well suited to him and he’s value today in a tough field.

Plenty of horses should put it up to him – Lac Fontana and Oscar Hoof warrant their shorter prices while Kayf Moss could be hugely overpriced – but I would think that Volnay De Thaix has the edge on these and he’s the bet.

Volnay De Thaix 9/1

2.05 – Maghull Novices Chase – 2m – Grade 1

This is a tough race to pick the winner of, and with only 7 runners and 2 each-way places, an e/w bet isn’t really on the cards. I would think that this realistically be between the top 3 in the market, and all of them should be there or there about – if you’re interested in forecasts etc, a reverse tri-cast would be the way to go if there were eight runners. However, it’s very tough to pick just one of them.

However, slight preference would have to go to favourite Hinterland and 10/3. He was travelling very well and could have put in a big race in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago when he unseated his rider with four to jump. He returns to his novice companions today and after racing against the big players in the division, he could be a real step above the rest. Trifolium could snatch 2^nd from Balder Success, but there is little between the two and I can’t go for a forecast or an each-way bet.

Hinterland 10/3

2.50 – Liverpool Hurdle – 3m 110yds – Grade 1

Again, I’m going to have to admit defeat and say that the market has it right for the Liverpool Hurdle this year rather than hunt out value. In another 7-horse field, there are only two each-way places on offer, and so a win bet is the way to go and the favourite is the one to have on your side.

At Fishers Cross 13/8 was the winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham last year and followed up at Aintree, finishing a spectacular season with a win in the Sefton Hurdle at this same meeting. This season, however, his season hasn’t been as stellar, with form of 4U26. He picked it up from these first two starts, however, and was back to old form when he beat Zarkandar, his main opponent today, to come 3^rd in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Without More Of That here today, we’ll be expecting World Hurdle form to come true, and that would put At Fishers Cross at the very top of the list and the most likely winner today by a good margin. Possibly the bet of the day.

At Fishers Cross 13/8

4.15 - Grand National - 4m 3f 110yds

So, we've been studying the Grand National for weeks now, and we've been on three horses ante post for a few weeks. On top of that, there are new bets today, and all of this can be viewed here. You could either decide to stake 7pts on the race, or decide how much you want to stake and divide from there. Here's the post. 

So, aside from the National, we’re backing these three horses, and I really wouldn’t put you off a Trixie. So, that would be three singles, two doubles and a treble (6 points staked). For those who aren’t interested in a 13/8 shot, that is. 

1.30 – Volnay De Thaix 9/1 (Win or e/w)

2.05 – Hinterland 10/3

2.50 – At Fishers Cross 13/8

(Optional Trixie)

Best of luck and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.

Grand National 2014 - The 7-Horse Shortlist

Pineau De Re
Burton Port
Raz De Maree
Prince De Beauchene
Across The Bay
Monbeg Dude
Balthazar King

Grand National 2014

We're still in slight profit after Day 3 at Aintree and peerless punting is the plan for the final day of the festival to have us finishing in front. Day 3 of the Grand National meeting revolves around the greatest steeplechase on earth - the Crabbies Grand National. With 40 runners, and run over 4 miles and 3 1/2 furlongs, it's a tough race to pick the winner of, but nevertheless is by far the biggest betting event of the year.

Firstly, we have three ante-post bets in the back pocket - Pineau De Re at 20/1, Raz De Maree at 50/1 and Burton Port at 28/1. The first of these is actually now available at 30/1, so that's the price we're advising you back at, and if needs be, top up at this price in addition to the ante post bet (assuming you didn't manage to get best odds guaranteed). Raz De Maree is still 50/1 generally but can be gotten at 66/1 with Coral, so again, that's the suggestion. Burton Port, on the other hand, is down to 14/1, so the ante post bet at 28/1 is looking very valuable.

Tonight, though, it's time to strengthen our position going into the big race. You may remember, these ante post bets were a quick analysis of the horses at the top of our initial ratings. Since then, much more analysis has been done and we've come up with a few more bets for the big race.

Firstly, a note on points. You don't want to be staking, say 15 points all day, and for 10 of them to be in the same race (or maybe you do?). The best way to do this is to decide how many points you wish to stake on the race, and divide the bets from there. So, for example, you may want to bet 6pts. You would just divide that 6pts out between the selections.

Across The Bay
Across The Bay ran a decent race last year to finish 14th, running out of steam before the end and fading away. He has improved a huge amount since moving from Noel Meade to England and the yard of Donald McCain, who is of course a trainer to be respected in the Grand National more than any other race. He has easily beaten Cappa Bleu over fences and has plenty of good form over hurdles, including a Grade 2 win over 3m. At 66/1, he has to be a bet.

Prince De Beauchene
Trained by Willie Mullins, Prince De Beauchene has been the ante post Grand National favourite in 2011 and 2012 only to be ruled out with injury. Mullins, who got his first win at the Grand National meeting since Hedgehunter won the National in 2005 yesterday with Boston Bob in the Melling Chase, could improve his Aintree form with Prince De Beauchene who has received huge market support over the past few days. 25/1 Coral.

Monbeg Dude
Monbeg Dude 14/1 has had a lot of market support recently, mainly because he's the story horse - partly owned by Mike Tindall and schooled by Zara Phillips, his jumping has improved massively over the past while to see him turn into a serious Grand National contender. As long as his improvements have been as vast as it appeared from his last run at Cheltenham, he could be the leading contender come 4.15 tomorrow.

Balthazar King
Form may not count for as much in the Grand National as it does in other races, but Balthazar King's fantastic form still has to be duly noted, having won on all of his four starts this season. Last year, he jumped fantastically but tired towards the end, but I wouldn't have any questions about him staying the trip this time around. 20/1 seems well worth a bet.

Add those four to the three ante post bets and we're in a very strong position, having staked no more than 7pts on the race, I would think, unless you wish to put an extra point on a horse, eg, Monbeg Dude. If I was backing them at anything other than level stakes, I would be having more on Monbeg Dude and maybe  slightly smaller bet on Across The Bay. The ante post horses are still bets - if we hadn't backed them ante post, we would still be advising them now.

7 horses is a lot to be backing in a race. However, if we were to only pick up one win from all of these horses and no places, we would in 7pt profit at worst on level stakes. Most of them would almost cover our stakes on the race just by placing if we backed them each-way, so I'm not worried about the amount of horses.

Lion na Bearnai narrowly missed out on being put on the list, so if you're looking for one more bet, he's a longshot but an attractive one.

Summary:

1. Pineau De Re 30/1 OR 20/1 (ante post. Now 30/1) 
2. Burton Port 28/1 (ante post. Now 16/1)
3. Raz De Maree 50/1 OR 66/1 (ante post. Now 66/1) 
4. Across The Bay 66/1
5. Prince De Beauchene 25/1 
6. Monbeg Dude 16/1 
7. Balthazar King 20/1 

If you wanted to go for relative staking, the suggestion might be 1)3pts 2)3pts 3)3pts 4)1pt 5)2pts 6)5pts 7)3pts. That adds up to 20pts staked. But anyway, it's the National - do it your own way. Whether to back them win or e/w has been left up to you, but at massive prices for most of them, e/w would be no harm.

On a final note, enjoy the Grand National. The changes in the race have been good and bad. Tomorrow, we will probably see more class in the Grand National than there has been in previous renewals, but at what cost? Does the compression of the weights really help to create a fair race or does it try to create a system whereby the more popular horses win?

My hope for tomorrow will be that the horse who wins will be a good stayer and a good jumper. I would hope that tomorrow's race will test those two things - stamina, and, to put some worries from the back of our minds, jumping. It should be said, though, that most importantly, I hope that all horses and jockeys get through the race safely.

Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose and the very best of luck. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the world's greatest steeplechase.

Grand National 2014 Runner-By-Runner Guide

The day has arrived and the wait is over for what is truly the world's greatest steeplechase. At 4.15pm, 40 horses will go to post in Liverpool to face the toughest, most grueling challenge of their career, testing their speed, their jumping, their stamina to the very maximum, as no other race can. Around the world, millions will turn towards their television screens, many of them not having had a bet since last year.

Arguments over whether the race is what it used to be are for another time. For now, we shouldn't try to ruin what is still a fantastic occasion and incredible with pessimism and rose-tinted glasses. Millions around the world will turn towards their television screens, turn towards Merseyside, oblivious to the cynicism which surrounds the race. To these people, the Grand National will be a race as brilliant and as exciting as it always has been. And, of course, these people will be looking for a bet.

Here, without going into too much detail, is our Grand National runner-by-runner guide, for all 40 horses taking part in the big race.

Tidal Bay - 16/1 Bet365
Represents real class in the race, but faces a huge task as 13 years of age with the top weight to carry. He is below his years based on his recent runs (2nd in a decent Hennessy last time out) and trainer Paul Nicholls has been very positive about his preparation. His jumping has improved a huge amount since falling at the 10th in this same race in 2011, but surely the burden of top weight is too much for him, despite a very lenient handicapper.

Long Run - 12/1 Bet365
Another classy contender - a Gold Cup winner, no less - but he's not the force he used to be. Until this season, Long Run had never finished outside of the places, but failed to do so on his first three starts this year, before showing hints of class when winning a less than average race at Kelso. Jockey Sam Waley Cohen is probably, along with Ruby Walsh, the best around these fences and will guide him well. His jumping could be an issue (but this isn't the test of jumping it once was) and for stamina he should be well up to this trip.

Hunt Ball - 66/1 Bet365
Hunt Ball had a shaky period after leaving Kieran Burke's yard, going on an unsuccessful trip to the USA before returning with Nicky Henderson to have two good runs since. However, his jumping will be a big worry and he has shown no signs of being up for this trip. It's a strange decision by Henderson to have him here, and he can't be backed.

Triolo D'Alene - 20/1 Bet365
Last year's Topham Chase and Hennessy winner will have Barry Geraghty on board tomorrow, and has been aimed at this race for a while now. He was outclassed in the Gold Cup but it was realistically only a prep run for this and he's back over these fences, where he has been successful last year, hoping for a better result. However, he's 7 years old and not experiences enough to win the National.

Rocky Creek - 16/1 Bet365
Never unplaced over fences, Rocky Creek has been aimed at this race for a while, and after missing the Gold Cup due to ringworm, he will primed and ready to attack. However, the handicapper hasn't done him any favours and his mark is very high today.

Quito De La Roque - 33/1 Bet365
This is quite simply a different horse to the force to be reckoned with back in 2011, not having won since January 2013 at Thurles. He hasn't run terribly but has not been up to National standard and there are no clues to suggest he'll return to the form of two years ago.

Colbert Station - 40/1 Bet365
He got no further than the Chair last year when he unseated AP, who has picked Double Seven over him today. Since then, there has been some good form and he is certainly not one to be discounted today, provided his jumping holds up as stamina will not be an issue. 40/1 could be big.

Walkon - 40/1 Bet365
Sure to be popular with the grey backers, Walkon has never won over further than two miles which is a massive negative in this marathon of a race. His jumping is fine, but if his form this season is anything to go by, he's not going to win the Grand National. A change of jockey and the fact that he finished last season a lot stronger than he started it could be worth noting, but not to the point of backing.

Balthazar King - 18/1 Bet365
He ran well last year and a similar prominent run this year could see him go a bit better by the end. He has been in fine form this season and is well suited to this race, with neither jumping or stamina an issue. It's not often that this is said but this is a potential Grand National winner.

Wayward Prince - 66/1 Bet365
He's not of much interest today considering his inconsistency and the fact that he's never raced over more than 3m 2f, so he has over a mile to find. He's yet another horse in this field who is good, you might say great, at his best, but based on recent form, he's hard to back. Ignore him at your peril though, as he has class on his day.

Mr Moonshine - 28/1 Bet365
Has last year's winning jockey Ryan Mania on board in bid to do a double. He also can be good on his day and was pulled up in last year's race. Jumping and stamina both suited to the races but there a re plenty of better competitors.

Teaforthree - 9/1 Bet365
Last year's 3rd returns to the great race in a bid to recover what might have been in the moments after jumping the last in the lead twelve months ago. He had his final prep race in the Gold Cup where he finished 8th but Rebecca Curtis isn't worried about him not being fresh. He jumps for fun and stays longer than the mother-in-law, so is a really solid each-way bet if the prices are for you, but I would think that if there's a faster finisher on the run-in, as there was last year, a place could be all he gets.

Across The Bay - 50/1 Bet365
Another one who ran a decent race in this last year before not having anything left towards the end and finishing a still respectable 14th, in a race in which finishing at all is an achievement in itself. He could be very underrated in this year's renewal - his jumping is normally fairly good and the few mistakes he showed last year can be discounted. Stamina will be very well suited and 50/1 is a big price for an each-way bet.

Double Seven - 14/1 Bet365
The money has been pouring in for Double Seven since AP McCoy confirmed that he will ride him instead of Colbert Station. He hasn't been proven over the trip, but the signs are good in that regard. However, this season's sole run didn't live up to the promising form of last year, and with this his first start outside of Ireland, 14/1 doesn't look to represent much value. He could be a contender, but not for backing at those odds.

Battle Group - 40/1 Bet365
Battle Group should love the ground but will have to bounce back to form (Grade 3 winner over hurdles) if he's going to be up among the main contenders in this race. On his last 3 starts he was pulled up twice and refused to run on another occasion, so it hasn't been an ideal preparation for him and he's very difficult to fancy.

Buckers Bridge - 66/1 Bet365
Unusually unexposed for a National contender with only eight starts to his name. He won five of the first six of these, but has been unexciting since then. The main worry is that he's unlikely to be able for this mammoth trip, but we don't really know what Buckers Bridge is capable of, and 66/1 could be a big price for a horse of this nature. Could be value.

Lion Na Bearnai - 33/1 Bet365
The Irish National winner would prefer ground which is slightly on the fast side, which we are unlikely to ever see again in a Grand National due to a strange obsession with watering. However, the ground shouldn't throw up any problems to a horse with proven stamina and who is of huge interest here considering an attractive price.

Prince De Beauchene - 18/1 Bet365
A horse not with massive value following plenty of market support, but one which I would be happy enough to back nevertheless. Willie Mullins has hoped to have him here on more than one occasion in the past when he has been sidelined due to injury so it would be great to see him win, with neither stamina nor jumping presenting any worries. A contender today.

Monbeg Dude - 12/1 Bet365
Monbeg Dude could go off the favourite ahead of Teaforthree if the money keeps coming in for him as it has been. This is probably due to the fact that he is partly owned by Mike Tindall and schooled by Zara Phillips, so the media would have a field day if this one emerged triumphant. He has been given a fair mark by the handicapper and with the valuable form of a Welsh National win, plus huge jumping improvements, he should be a real contender.

Big Shu - 20/1 Bet365
He will have no problem running off an easy weight today, with proven stamina and jumping talent, but would rather heavy ground which will not be present. He's still one to keep an eye on.

Burton Port - 16/1 Bet365
A fantastic novice sidelined by injury for a while and then following up with some bad runs. Bad runs, you may call them, or, slipping down in the weights. He has been hugely underrated by the handicapper in my opinion, and he is one of three horses running today who we backed ante post a few weeks ago. Sit tight on that ante post bet if you're on, and if you're not, he could be a real contender - worth a bet.

Our Father - 66/1 Bet365
Another horse who was very promising early on in his career but didn't manage to live up to expectations. This has always been the aim but there are better horses in the race and it's doubtful that Our Father is a Grand National winner.

Mountainous - 40/1 Bet365
Mountainous has a massive price today and will stay for as long as he is asked to. He's this year's Welsh National winner, but one of the many reasons that the Scottish National is better form for Aintree than the Welsh version is the ground, and Mountainous' best form comes on worse ground than will be present for the Grand National. He could still represent value, but probably not the winner.

The Rainbow Hunter - 28/1 Bet365
The Grimthorpe Chase winner and one who can throw up a great performance seemingly out of nowhere. He didn't get too far in last year's race and it's hard to tell whether he will do better this year and  emulate the Grimpthorpe form, or whether he will run closer to his average form over the past while, which is far from good enough to come close to winning a Grand National.

Vintage Star - 66/1 Bet365
Jumping may not mean as much as it used to in this race, but it's still vital that you don't make mistakes around these troublesome fences, and Vintage Star is unlikely to avoid mistakes today. From the same yard as last year's winner, Auroras Encore, Vintage Star was overlooked by jockey Ryan Mania in favour of stablemate Mr Moonshine.

Chance Du Roy - 33/1 Bet365
Chance Du Roy won this year's Becher Chase in a field of 23 which included 6 of today's contenders and also Gold Cup runner-up On His Own, who admittedly probably doesn't like the Aintree fences. The future form from that race looks very solid and Chance Du Roy could be worth taking notice of today at a big price.

Hawkes Point - 40/1 Bet365
This race is a much tougher one than the Welsh National, and, like many of the others coming from that race, Hawkes Point would want worse ground than he will get today. He will face tougher rivals here than he has in the past and it could be a big ask.

Kruzhlinin - 100/1 Bet365
Other than the fact that he's from the McCain yard, there's not much going for Kruzhlinin and he doesn't show much appeal today.

Pineau De Re - 22/1 Bet365
The 2nd of the 3 horses we have an ante post bet on, Pineau De Re had a very good run last time out at Cheltenham, coming 3rd by a small margin in the Pertemps, and I can't help but think that if he had won the race, his price would be much shorter today. His form is good and his improvement rapid to date, and if this continues, he holds serious claims.

Golan Way - 100/1 Bet365
It's close to impossible to know how Golan Way will do today considering the fact that he's only had 2 runs since 2012, and although the last was impressive, we don't have much to compare the form with and the National will be a far tougher task.

Twirling Magnet - 100/1 Bet365
Should love the ground and has run some good races, but jumping could be an issue and it's hard to see him go all the way.

Vesper Bell - 66/1 Bet365
Another whose jumping is a doubt after falling over these fences already this year. If he gets over the jumps and returns to previous form he could be up there, but we have no reason to back him.

The Package - 16/1 Bet365
The Package is one who would have hoped to run in the National a few different years but didn't get there due to injury. He has gotten there this year, possibly for his last chance, and follows up on a good run at Cheltenham, 3rd behind Holywell. He will still have to take it up a step from his current form to win the Grand National but definitely one to watch.

Raz De Maree - 50/1 Bet365
The 3rd horse in our ante-post arsenal, Raz De Maree stayed very well to win two races last year, and stamina is no worry at all. His form on good ground holds up even though heavy is slightly preferable. After being aimed at this race all year, he could be a nice bet. Price hasn't changed since the ante-post bet was had so betting now presents value.

Rose Of The Moon - 33/1 Bet365
If there are no jumping errors he could be of minor interest but I won't be having a bet on Rose Of The Moon who was 10th in the Becher on his only other start here.

Shakalakaboomboom - 33/1 Bet365
Shkalakaboomboom is a great name and off a great price he could run a big race while being written off by many based on past form. He suits the profile of a Grand National winner and is worth noting, possibly worth backing.

Alvarado - 40/1 Bet365
Alvarado runs off a tiny weight today and if he gets back to his past form he could be dangerous, similar to Burton Port. A few bad runs can be discounted due to terrible conditions.

Last Time D'Albain - 66/1 Bet365
Another horse to whom the handicapper has been generous to and based on his 3rd in last year's Topham Chase he could be a real contender. Based on recent form, on the other hand, he doesn't pose much of a threat to some of the leading contenders.

One In A Milan - 100/1 Bet365
One In A Milan is a one in a hundred shot, and not one I can back considering how easy the Welsh National would have been for him with no weight on terrible ground.

Swing Bill - 100/1 Bet365
Last year's 6th is a 100/1 shot this year, and the price could be too long for you considering he has much more experience, and positive experience, over these fences. He's 13 years old and so is unlikely to win, but could pick up a place at massive odds (but it's a longshot...)

The Pick

Long Run

Colbert Station

Balthazar King

Across The Bay

Lion Na Bearnai

Prince De Beauchene

Monbeg Dude

Burton Port

Chance Du Roy

Pineau De Re

Raz De Maree

The very best of luck and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

As always, I would recommend you bet with Bet365. To avail of their special offers and great prices, sign up here.

Aintree Day 2 Preview & Selections

After a profitable Day 1, we’re hoping to keep up the nice returns on the second day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting.

2.00 – Top Novices Hurdle – 2m 110yds – Grade 2

We started off yesterday with a nice-priced win in the opener, the 4yo  hurdle. However, today’s opener isn’t quite as straightforward a task, mainly because the majority of horses in the race look like they could well be the winner. I’m finding it really hard to narrow down to profitable betting options.

Josses Hill is the current favourite and is very strong in the market. Nicky Henderson has run this race the last two years in a row and with Josses Hill ran a very strong race to finish 2^nd  to Vautour in the Supreme, without the benefit of having Barry Geraghty on board. He beat Sgt Reckless that day, and should verify that form today.

As for an each-way bet, Amore Alato may be written off by some based on the fact that Irving, well beaten in the Supreme, didn’t have any trouble in beating him in his last start. However, at 14/1, I wouldn’t mind an e/w bet on him, based on good performances on his last three outings and the fact that I think he’ll love it at Aintree on his first course start.

JOSSES HILL 15/8
AMORE ALATO E/W 14/1

2.30 – Mildmay Novices Chase – 3m 1f – Grade 1

Again, I’m going to have to back the favourite in this field of six. O’Faolains Boy ran a great race to win the RSA at Cheltenham last month when losing a shoe. After the race, Barry Geraghty’s comments were of great interest – he said that the horse was capable of winning much more and that he underperformed on the day. To be that critical immediately after winning a race at the festival is incredible and it shows how highly Geraghty thinks of the O’Faolains Boy. The only problem could be how tough that Cheltenham race was on him, and there might be doubt as to whether or not he will be as fresh as some opponents today.

Wonderful Charm also follows up from a big run at Cheltenham, coming 5^th in the JLT despite being badly hampered. He’s capable of getting a better result, especially on his return to a flat track. However, I think it will be either Holywell or Don Cossack chasing home O’Faolains Boy. After a shaky start to his chasing career, Holywell has found form and has now won three in a row promisingly. He follows up from a festival win today, and could come close to emulating Cheltenham form. Don Cossack, on the other hand, fell in the RSA while travelling well and looks well suited to this race.

The bet, though, is O’Faolains Boy. As a side note, we have an ante-post bet on him in next year’s Gold Cup from a few years ago, and it would be nice to see him complete the first step to getting there in this race.

O’FAOLAINS BOY 11/4

3.05 – Melling Chase – 2m 4f – Grade 1

It’s far from a stellar renewal of the BetFred Melling Chase. In fact, it’s an abysmal one. The thoughts of Sprinter Sacre beating Cue Card and Flemenstar last year are a huge contrast to the year’s race, where the favourite is Rajdhani Express.

From a betting perspective, I’m happy enough with the current state of affairs, though, as my selection sits comfortably at third in the market at an attractive price of 11/2. He has a good record at the Grand National meeting, and his run in the Champion Chase is well worth watching – he was making up for lost ground very quickly travelling up the hill. 11/2 is a massive price in my opinion, especially with Paddy Power who are offering money back if he comes 2^nd or 3^rd. At a nice price, he could be the bet of the day at Aintree today, and it would be nice to be in a good position heading into the trappy Topham Chase and Sefton Novices Hurdle.

WISHFULL THINKING 11/2

Summary

·         2.00 – Josses Hill 15/8
Amore Alato e/w 14/1

·         2.30 – O’Faolains Boy 11/4

·         3.05 – Wishfull Thinking 11/2

·         Optional trebles for people wishing to have another bet or a chance to vamp up their winnings: (Treble x2 – JH, OFB, WT – AA, OFB, WT). Staked: 2pts

·         If even stakes, 4pts stakes excluding trebles, or 6 including trebles. Interestingly, we made more than 4pts in profit yesterday, so if you don’t do the trebles, you’re actually playing with yesterday’s winnings, ie, you’re guaranteed to finish in profit even if everything loses – but why would we talk about everything losing?!

The rest of the races are for watching for me but I wouldn’t put you off a  bet considering it is the Grand National Meeting, and the Topham Chase and Sefton Novices Hurdle are both great races which you may wish to have an interest in.

The very best of luck with whatever you back, and remember as always to only bet what you can afford to lose.

During this week, I would advise people more than ever to bet with Bet365. Back a winner at odds of 4/1 or more in a Channel 4 race and get a free bet in the next race to the same stake - Best odds guaranteed - Promise to beat or match prices of Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral, Totesport and Boylesports in all Channel 4 races - These are just some of Bet365's offers. Make sure you sign up here to get the best prices, the best offers and the best service.

Aintree Day 1: How We Did

A very good first day for us at Aintree and we’re hoping to follow up with further profits today. Day 1 started with the Anniversary 4yo hurdle, and got us off to a winning start with Guitar Pete. The 13/2 bet took a drift during the day and reached 8/1 with some firms, but the SP was back at the advised price of 13/2. From the off, Guitar Pete looked like a losing bet, held up at the back of the field just a few out before covering ground at a great pace to win.

Next up was the BetFred Bowl and again, a winner for us, with Silviniaco Conti at 5/2, a horse who really deserved the win after running a bad race to come 3^rd in the same event last year. Conti disputed the lead with First Lieutenant throughout the race and held on to win despite weakening before the line. At this stage (assuming you backed at level stakes) we had had two bets and two wins (2 staked, 11 returned, 9pts profit on the first two races – not a bad start to the meeting!

Following the Bowl was the feature race, the Aintree Hurdle, featuring the horse billed as “Cheltenham’s unluckiest loser”, The New One. He was our selection, but at odds of 2/5, we went looking for another bet, and came up with the option of either a reverse forecast with The New One and Diakali or a bet on Diakali to win w/o The New One. The race ended in a thrilling three-horse photo finish, with The New One winning, to give us profit, but, sickeningly, Diakali came 3^rd in the photo finish, so our other bet brought no return. (4 staked, 12.44 returned, 8.44pts profit after 3 races).

Next, it was on to a big field. Anyone following the blog over the flat season will know that we tend to do better in smaller fields and pattern races than in big-field handicaps, and the Foxhunters Chase can be a tough race to choose the winner of. Warne was a worthy one, though. As for our own three, each-way bets, Brunswick Gold went for a run before the race and so was withdrawn (no bet with most bookies). Pentiffic fell early on in the race and so who knows what might have been? As for Richards Sundance, it was disappointing not to grab a place following a strong early run, but he faded to 7^th by the time the race ended.

Finally, the Red Rum Chase was similarly unsuccessful – we opted for win bets rather than each-way ones even though there were four places on offer. Sound Investment didn’t live up to his name, while Claret Cloak picked up a place in 3^rd, and would have refunded his stake if we backed him each-way, but there’s no point in looking back now. Also, maybe more annoyingly, we made this comment in the preview: “Elsewhere, anyone looking for outsiders at bigger prices may want to note Parsnip Pete 25/1,  and Bullet Street 33/1. Turn Over Sivola is also worth noting at 8/1.” Bullet Street was a non-runner, while Turn Over Sivola was 2^nd and Parsnip Pete was the 25/1 winner!

So, the day finished as follows:
8 staked
12.44 returned
4.44pts profit

(Or, if you took our suggestion to only back the Foxhunters selections to half stakes:
6.5 staked
12.44 returned
5.94pts profit)

Aintree Day 1 Preview & Selections

It seems almost surreal that it’s been a full year since The Parade Ring was set up, and the Grand National meeting took place at Aintree. The opening day of the 3-day feast of top class racing never fails to bring with it some fantastic and memorable moments, and some interesting punting opportunities with the potential to make us some good profits.

Of course, every day of racing brings with it punting opportunities – finding them is the only difficulty. Hopefully we can do so in what promises to be a hugely entertaining three days in Liverpool, climaxing with the greatest steeplechase the world has to offer.

To the present, though, and day one. Here it goes…

2.00 – Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle – 2m 1f – Grade 1

To start off this year’s festival, the 4yos go head to head over hurdles in a Grade 1 which will see many Cheltenham runners reunited. Indeed, 8 of the 15 runners here ran at Cheltenham, in both the Fred Winter (Baradari, Clarcam, Handiwork, Hawk High, Violet Dancer) and the Triumph Hurdle (Guitar Pete, Calipto, Broughton). Those who ran in the latter seem more of interest based on individual talent alone, and factoring in the fact that it was, it would seem, a much stronger race, they are of interest.

No excuses can be made for Broughton’s run – although he is dangerous if back to his flat form and seemed to be taking brilliantly to his hurdling career, he disappointed at Cheltenham and it’s hard to find a reason why. Guitar Pete came 3^rd in the Triumph, beating Calipto whose stirrups broke in the closing stages (a hard luck story which makes the punters lump on – more on that later), but running a fine race and looking like a solid, reliable horse all season.

With this in mind, along with the fact that the ground is on the soft side of good, which could cause problems for competitors, Guitar Pete looks like a bet. A reliable horse who hasn’t failed to place so far this season, he would be very solid if we backed him each-way. However, this game is about courage, and at 13/2, a win bet would be the more profitable option. As a side note, I’m a big fan of Broughton and would love to see him return to previous form at 16/1, but with no evidence to say he will, other than his return to a flat track which will certainly suit him, he’s not back-able on this occasion.

At massive prices, Handiwork and Violet Dancer could be overpriced but are longshots nevertheless. I would think that most likely to be chasing home Guitar Pete today is Calipto, Hawk High, or of course Broughton.

GUITAR PETE 13/2

2.30 – BetFred Bowl – 3m 1f – Grade 1

This year’s renewal of the BetFred Bowl is not lacking in class, but more so in the size of the field, with 6 runners meaning only 2 e/w places. Therefore, it looks like we need to pick a winner in this one, rather than a big-priced e/w bet. Dynaste heads the betting after a fantastic display in the Ryanair at Cheltenham over 2m 5f, and he looks like he will appreciate the step back up to today’s trip. Fantastic he may be, consistent he is not, and I don’t need to give you examples of past occasions when he ran similarly fantastically only to disappoint when asked to repeat the feat.

First Lieutenant was last year’s winner and has been running similarly this season to last year, putting in valiant performances. He was worrying early on in the year but his 2^nd behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus showed that he still has what it takes to perform at the top level. Withdrawn on the morning of the Gold Cup, he may be fresher than the others here but that won’t count for everything. Honestly, I don’t think that he’ll be strong enough win this race for the second year in a row, and if his competitors run to their best, he’ll have a much tougher task than he did at this time last year.

The selection, though, has to be Silviniaco Conti. He probably hit the front too early in the Gold Cup, but this year’s renewal of the Cheltenham showpiece is hardly form to analyse, with the lowest-rated winner in a long time (based on Timeform ratings) and two of the best staying chasers in training finishing outside of the places. Of course, that’s the nature of racing and I say this with no disrespect to the winners or any others. Conti was travelling very well two years ago when he fell three from home in the Gold Cup, and followed it up by coming here to this same race, when he clearly wasn’t himself.

After that, he came 3^rd in the Betfair Chase (won by Cue Card) before finishing strongly in the King George to reverse the form with the Tizzard’s front-runner. All looked good going into the Gold Cup, when… well, we’re not quite sure what happened. It’s fair to say, though, that Silviniaco Conti was far from disgraced and shouldn’t have to wait for the Betfair to get a win this time around.

Finally, a note on Menorah, who has been priced up at around 12/1. I had been hoping for a bigger price considering the talent of the first three in the market, but it could be worth noting that I would not be surprised to see Menorah in the mix in what has been billed as a three-horse race. Certainly, it would be no surprise to see Menorah pick up 2^nd place. If there were 3 e/w places, I would be having an each-way bet here. Seeing as there are only two, I think I’ll have to sit it out.

SILVINIACO CONTI 5/2

3.05 – Aintree Hurdle – 2m 4f – Grade 1

The Aintree Hurdle is a prime example of how far below its potential a field can be at Aintree, mainly due to the fact that the meeting takes place only three weeks after the Cheltenham festival. Given how strong a race the Champion Hurdle was, and how many questions it left unanswered, it’s a pity that we won’t see a race of a similar calibre today, albeit a Grade 1.

The New One was badly hampered by the fatal and tragic fall of Our Conor in the Champion Hurdle, leaving him with a lot of ground to make up, which he did in style. His incredible ability to get back into the race left him favourite for next year’s renewal at the festival. He showed real class that day and if he can come close to emulating it today, he should win. Punters took notice, of course, which is why his odds today are 2/5 at best. Fair, maybe, but hardly workman’s prices. Nevertheless, he  has to be the selection, whether he represents value or not.

I wouldn’t expect Mullins to sit back and watch The New One’s magic, however, and his Diakali sits comfortably on a lovely each-way price of 10/1. Although there may only be two places on offer, it’s easy to forget when surrounded by the hype that no horse in unbeatable, and I would hope that Diakali might put it up to The New One today, if only to make a race out of it. I would be relatively confident in the reverse forecast, which could be worth a bet. Otherwise, back Diakali “w/o The New One” at 5/2 with Totesport, which is slightly better odds than backing him to place with Bet365.

THE NEW ONE 2/5
THE NEW ONE, DIAKALI REVERSE FORECAST OR DIAKALI W/O TNO 5/2

3.40 – Fox Hunters Chase – 2m 5f 110yds

Firstly, it’s good to see the race being called “Crabbie Supporting The Hillsborough Families Fox Hunters Chase”. If you were unhappy with the small fields earlier, this 22-runner handicap should cheer you up (a word of caution to be absolutely certain you get four places. Plenty of bookies only offering three.)

The Fox Hunter’s Chase is never an easy puzzle to solve but three horses have caught my eye, each of whom I feel may be worth an each-way bet. Firstly, at 12/1, Richards Sundance has shown something good in his starts so far this season, most recently in two Foxhunter Trials, coming 2^nd and 1^st and beating a couple of decent horses along the way, among them National hope Pineau De Re. Connections will be only delighted to see a bit of a cut in the spring ground and Richards Sundance should relish it. Although it’s his first start at Aintree and his record on left-handed tracks is bad (and his record on flat tracks isn’t anything to boast about either) he looks like a decent each-way bet at 12/1 to me.

However, if we’re planning on betting each-way we might as well go looking for a bit more value, and Pentiffic 18/1 might represent that in a confusing yet interesting field.  Venetia Williams’ will probably be heavily backed this weeks if the ground deteriorates, and Pentiffic, like many of his stable mates, would probably rather the ground after a few more showers. How the actual going is is hard to tell at the time of writing, but if it turns out to be closer to soft than good, I’ll be delighted to be backing Pentiffic.

Finally, 20/1 seems a nice price about Brunswick Gold who has 3 winners under his belt already this season, including last time out over 3m in Huntingdon last February on heavy ground. He seems to be a horse who can handle more or less any type of ground and has the ability to put in a big performance.

You could dutch the three of them to a single stake if that’s your kind of betting, but it’s not mine, so all I will suggest is an e/w bet on each of them. If you wanted to you could half the stake so as not to be staking too much on the one race – it’s up to you really.

RICHARDS SUNDANCE 12/1 E/W
PENTIFFIC 18/1 E/W
BRUNSWICK GOLD 20/1 E/W

4.15 - Red Rum Chase – 2m – Grade 3

So, the last of our previewed races (but not the last race of the day, don’t worry) is the Red Rum Chase, a 17-runner handicap over 2m. Strangely enough for a race of this nature, no outsiders really catch the eye at all and it would seem, unfortunately, that the market has this one more or less correct. My two fancies are both in the top 4 in the market.

Claret Cloke is 4/1 favourite, which is fairly justified considering the fact that he beat plenty of other runners here in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, when he ran a big race to come 3^rd. He was travelling very nicely before a bad mistake at the second last which saw him lose momentum and effectively the race. That was just his fourth start over fences so progression is expected even since then, and it would be no surprise to see him run another massive race today, even if he did pay 4lb for his impressive showing at the festival.

Elsewhere, Sound Investment 9/1 could be great value based on his last performance, a very impressive one at Sandown last month over 2m, winning at odds of 4/11 by 13l on the same ground as today.

Elsewhere, anyone looking for outsiders at bigger prices may want to note Parsnip Pete 25/1,  and Bullet Street 33/1. Turn Over Sivola is also worth noting at 8/1.

CLARET CLOKE 4/1
SOUND INVESTMENT 9/1

Summary:

• Guitar Pete 13/2
• Silviniaco Conti 5/2
• The New One 2/5
  Diakali w/o The New One 5/2 OR Diakali + The New One Rev. Forecast
• Richards Sundance 12/1 e/w
  Pentiffic 18/1 e/w
  Brunswick Gold 20/1 e/w
• Claret Cloke 4/1
  Sound Investment 9/1

As always the very best of luck, and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.

During this week, I would advise people more than ever to bet with Bet365. Back a winner at odds of 4/1 or more in a Channel 4 race and get a free bet in the next race to the same stake - Best odds guaranteed - Promise to beat or match prices of Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral, Totesport and Boylesports in all Channel 4 races - These are just some of Bet365's offers. Make sure you sign up here to get the best prices, the best offers and the best service.