Arguments over whether the race is what it used to be are for another time. For now, we shouldn't try to ruin what is still a fantastic occasion and incredible with pessimism and rose-tinted glasses. Millions around the world will turn towards their television screens, turn towards Merseyside, oblivious to the cynicism which surrounds the race. To these people, the Grand National will be a race as brilliant and as exciting as it always has been. And, of course, these people will be looking for a bet.
Here, without going into too much detail, is our Grand National runner-by-runner guide, for all 40 horses taking part in the big race.
Tidal Bay - 16/1 Bet365
Represents real class in the race, but faces a huge task as 13 years of age with the top weight to carry. He is below his years based on his recent runs (2nd in a decent Hennessy last time out) and trainer Paul Nicholls has been very positive about his preparation. His jumping has improved a huge amount since falling at the 10th in this same race in 2011, but surely the burden of top weight is too much for him, despite a very lenient handicapper.
Long Run - 12/1 Bet365
Another classy contender - a Gold Cup winner, no less - but he's not the force he used to be. Until this season, Long Run had never finished outside of the places, but failed to do so on his first three starts this year, before showing hints of class when winning a less than average race at Kelso. Jockey Sam Waley Cohen is probably, along with Ruby Walsh, the best around these fences and will guide him well. His jumping could be an issue (but this isn't the test of jumping it once was) and for stamina he should be well up to this trip.
Hunt Ball - 66/1 Bet365
Hunt Ball had a shaky period after leaving Kieran Burke's yard, going on an unsuccessful trip to the USA before returning with Nicky Henderson to have two good runs since. However, his jumping will be a big worry and he has shown no signs of being up for this trip. It's a strange decision by Henderson to have him here, and he can't be backed.
Triolo D'Alene - 20/1 Bet365
Last year's Topham Chase and Hennessy winner will have Barry Geraghty on board tomorrow, and has been aimed at this race for a while now. He was outclassed in the Gold Cup but it was realistically only a prep run for this and he's back over these fences, where he has been successful last year, hoping for a better result. However, he's 7 years old and not experiences enough to win the National.
Rocky Creek - 16/1 Bet365
Never unplaced over fences, Rocky Creek has been aimed at this race for a while, and after missing the Gold Cup due to ringworm, he will primed and ready to attack. However, the handicapper hasn't done him any favours and his mark is very high today.
Quito De La Roque - 33/1 Bet365
This is quite simply a different horse to the force to be reckoned with back in 2011, not having won since January 2013 at Thurles. He hasn't run terribly but has not been up to National standard and there are no clues to suggest he'll return to the form of two years ago.
Colbert Station - 40/1 Bet365
He got no further than the Chair last year when he unseated AP, who has picked Double Seven over him today. Since then, there has been some good form and he is certainly not one to be discounted today, provided his jumping holds up as stamina will not be an issue. 40/1 could be big.
Walkon - 40/1 Bet365
Sure to be popular with the grey backers, Walkon has never won over further than two miles which is a massive negative in this marathon of a race. His jumping is fine, but if his form this season is anything to go by, he's not going to win the Grand National. A change of jockey and the fact that he finished last season a lot stronger than he started it could be worth noting, but not to the point of backing.
Balthazar King - 18/1 Bet365
He ran well last year and a similar prominent run this year could see him go a bit better by the end. He has been in fine form this season and is well suited to this race, with neither jumping or stamina an issue. It's not often that this is said but this is a potential Grand National winner.
Wayward Prince - 66/1 Bet365
He's not of much interest today considering his inconsistency and the fact that he's never raced over more than 3m 2f, so he has over a mile to find. He's yet another horse in this field who is good, you might say great, at his best, but based on recent form, he's hard to back. Ignore him at your peril though, as he has class on his day.
Mr Moonshine - 28/1 Bet365
Has last year's winning jockey Ryan Mania on board in bid to do a double. He also can be good on his day and was pulled up in last year's race. Jumping and stamina both suited to the races but there a re plenty of better competitors.
Teaforthree - 9/1 Bet365
Last year's 3rd returns to the great race in a bid to recover what might have been in the moments after jumping the last in the lead twelve months ago. He had his final prep race in the Gold Cup where he finished 8th but Rebecca Curtis isn't worried about him not being fresh. He jumps for fun and stays longer than the mother-in-law, so is a really solid each-way bet if the prices are for you, but I would think that if there's a faster finisher on the run-in, as there was last year, a place could be all he gets.
Across The Bay - 50/1 Bet365
Another one who ran a decent race in this last year before not having anything left towards the end and finishing a still respectable 14th, in a race in which finishing at all is an achievement in itself. He could be very underrated in this year's renewal - his jumping is normally fairly good and the few mistakes he showed last year can be discounted. Stamina will be very well suited and 50/1 is a big price for an each-way bet.
Double Seven - 14/1 Bet365
The money has been pouring in for Double Seven since AP McCoy confirmed that he will ride him instead of Colbert Station. He hasn't been proven over the trip, but the signs are good in that regard. However, this season's sole run didn't live up to the promising form of last year, and with this his first start outside of Ireland, 14/1 doesn't look to represent much value. He could be a contender, but not for backing at those odds.
Battle Group - 40/1 Bet365
Battle Group should love the ground but will have to bounce back to form (Grade 3 winner over hurdles) if he's going to be up among the main contenders in this race. On his last 3 starts he was pulled up twice and refused to run on another occasion, so it hasn't been an ideal preparation for him and he's very difficult to fancy.
Buckers Bridge - 66/1 Bet365
Unusually unexposed for a National contender with only eight starts to his name. He won five of the first six of these, but has been unexciting since then. The main worry is that he's unlikely to be able for this mammoth trip, but we don't really know what Buckers Bridge is capable of, and 66/1 could be a big price for a horse of this nature. Could be value.
Lion Na Bearnai - 33/1 Bet365
The Irish National winner would prefer ground which is slightly on the fast side, which we are unlikely to ever see again in a Grand National due to a strange obsession with watering. However, the ground shouldn't throw up any problems to a horse with proven stamina and who is of huge interest here considering an attractive price.
Prince De Beauchene - 18/1 Bet365
A horse not with massive value following plenty of market support, but one which I would be happy enough to back nevertheless. Willie Mullins has hoped to have him here on more than one occasion in the past when he has been sidelined due to injury so it would be great to see him win, with neither stamina nor jumping presenting any worries. A contender today.
Monbeg Dude - 12/1 Bet365
Monbeg Dude could go off the favourite ahead of Teaforthree if the money keeps coming in for him as it has been. This is probably due to the fact that he is partly owned by Mike Tindall and schooled by Zara Phillips, so the media would have a field day if this one emerged triumphant. He has been given a fair mark by the handicapper and with the valuable form of a Welsh National win, plus huge jumping improvements, he should be a real contender.
Big Shu - 20/1 Bet365
He will have no problem running off an easy weight today, with proven stamina and jumping talent, but would rather heavy ground which will not be present. He's still one to keep an eye on.
Burton Port - 16/1 Bet365
A fantastic novice sidelined by injury for a while and then following up with some bad runs. Bad runs, you may call them, or, slipping down in the weights. He has been hugely underrated by the handicapper in my opinion, and he is one of three horses running today who we backed ante post a few weeks ago. Sit tight on that ante post bet if you're on, and if you're not, he could be a real contender - worth a bet.
Our Father - 66/1 Bet365
Another horse who was very promising early on in his career but didn't manage to live up to expectations. This has always been the aim but there are better horses in the race and it's doubtful that Our Father is a Grand National winner.
Mountainous - 40/1 Bet365
Mountainous has a massive price today and will stay for as long as he is asked to. He's this year's Welsh National winner, but one of the many reasons that the Scottish National is better form for Aintree than the Welsh version is the ground, and Mountainous' best form comes on worse ground than will be present for the Grand National. He could still represent value, but probably not the winner.
The Rainbow Hunter - 28/1 Bet365
The Grimthorpe Chase winner and one who can throw up a great performance seemingly out of nowhere. He didn't get too far in last year's race and it's hard to tell whether he will do better this year and emulate the Grimpthorpe form, or whether he will run closer to his average form over the past while, which is far from good enough to come close to winning a Grand National.
Vintage Star - 66/1 Bet365
Jumping may not mean as much as it used to in this race, but it's still vital that you don't make mistakes around these troublesome fences, and Vintage Star is unlikely to avoid mistakes today. From the same yard as last year's winner, Auroras Encore, Vintage Star was overlooked by jockey Ryan Mania in favour of stablemate Mr Moonshine.
Chance Du Roy - 33/1 Bet365
Chance Du Roy won this year's Becher Chase in a field of 23 which included 6 of today's contenders and also Gold Cup runner-up On His Own, who admittedly probably doesn't like the Aintree fences. The future form from that race looks very solid and Chance Du Roy could be worth taking notice of today at a big price.
Hawkes Point - 40/1 Bet365
This race is a much tougher one than the Welsh National, and, like many of the others coming from that race, Hawkes Point would want worse ground than he will get today. He will face tougher rivals here than he has in the past and it could be a big ask.
Kruzhlinin - 100/1 Bet365
Other than the fact that he's from the McCain yard, there's not much going for Kruzhlinin and he doesn't show much appeal today.
Pineau De Re - 22/1 Bet365
The 2nd of the 3 horses we have an ante post bet on, Pineau De Re had a very good run last time out at Cheltenham, coming 3rd by a small margin in the Pertemps, and I can't help but think that if he had won the race, his price would be much shorter today. His form is good and his improvement rapid to date, and if this continues, he holds serious claims.
Golan Way - 100/1 Bet365
It's close to impossible to know how Golan Way will do today considering the fact that he's only had 2 runs since 2012, and although the last was impressive, we don't have much to compare the form with and the National will be a far tougher task.
Twirling Magnet - 100/1 Bet365
Should love the ground and has run some good races, but jumping could be an issue and it's hard to see him go all the way.
Vesper Bell - 66/1 Bet365
Another whose jumping is a doubt after falling over these fences already this year. If he gets over the jumps and returns to previous form he could be up there, but we have no reason to back him.
The Package - 16/1 Bet365
The Package is one who would have hoped to run in the National a few different years but didn't get there due to injury. He has gotten there this year, possibly for his last chance, and follows up on a good run at Cheltenham, 3rd behind Holywell. He will still have to take it up a step from his current form to win the Grand National but definitely one to watch.
Raz De Maree - 50/1 Bet365
The 3rd horse in our ante-post arsenal, Raz De Maree stayed very well to win two races last year, and stamina is no worry at all. His form on good ground holds up even though heavy is slightly preferable. After being aimed at this race all year, he could be a nice bet. Price hasn't changed since the ante-post bet was had so betting now presents value.
Rose Of The Moon - 33/1 Bet365
If there are no jumping errors he could be of minor interest but I won't be having a bet on Rose Of The Moon who was 10th in the Becher on his only other start here.
Shakalakaboomboom - 33/1 Bet365
Shkalakaboomboom is a great name and off a great price he could run a big race while being written off by many based on past form. He suits the profile of a Grand National winner and is worth noting, possibly worth backing.
Alvarado - 40/1 Bet365
Alvarado runs off a tiny weight today and if he gets back to his past form he could be dangerous, similar to Burton Port. A few bad runs can be discounted due to terrible conditions.
Last Time D'Albain - 66/1 Bet365
Another horse to whom the handicapper has been generous to and based on his 3rd in last year's Topham Chase he could be a real contender. Based on recent form, on the other hand, he doesn't pose much of a threat to some of the leading contenders.
One In A Milan - 100/1 Bet365
One In A Milan is a one in a hundred shot, and not one I can back considering how easy the Welsh National would have been for him with no weight on terrible ground.
Swing Bill - 100/1 Bet365
Last year's 6th is a 100/1 shot this year, and the price could be too long for you considering he has much more experience, and positive experience, over these fences. He's 13 years old and so is unlikely to win, but could pick up a place at massive odds (but it's a longshot...)
The Pick
Long Run
Colbert Station
Balthazar King
Across The Bay
Lion Na Bearnai
Prince De Beauchene
Monbeg Dude
Burton Port
Chance Du Roy
Pineau De Re
Raz De Maree
The very best of luck and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose.
As always, I would recommend you bet with Bet365. To avail of their special offers and great prices, sign up here.
No comments:
Post a Comment