Firstly, we have three ante-post bets in the back pocket - Pineau De Re at 20/1, Raz De Maree at 50/1 and Burton Port at 28/1. The first of these is actually now available at 30/1, so that's the price we're advising you back at, and if needs be, top up at this price in addition to the ante post bet (assuming you didn't manage to get best odds guaranteed). Raz De Maree is still 50/1 generally but can be gotten at 66/1 with Coral, so again, that's the suggestion. Burton Port, on the other hand, is down to 14/1, so the ante post bet at 28/1 is looking very valuable.
Tonight, though, it's time to strengthen our position going into the big race. You may remember, these ante post bets were a quick analysis of the horses at the top of our initial ratings. Since then, much more analysis has been done and we've come up with a few more bets for the big race.
Firstly, a note on points. You don't want to be staking, say 15 points all day, and for 10 of them to be in the same race (or maybe you do?). The best way to do this is to decide how many points you wish to stake on the race, and divide the bets from there. So, for example, you may want to bet 6pts. You would just divide that 6pts out between the selections.
Across The Bay
Across The Bay ran a decent race last year to finish 14th, running out of steam before the end and fading away. He has improved a huge amount since moving from Noel Meade to England and the yard of Donald McCain, who is of course a trainer to be respected in the Grand National more than any other race. He has easily beaten Cappa Bleu over fences and has plenty of good form over hurdles, including a Grade 2 win over 3m. At 66/1, he has to be a bet.
Prince De Beauchene
Trained by Willie Mullins, Prince De Beauchene has been the ante post Grand National favourite in 2011 and 2012 only to be ruled out with injury. Mullins, who got his first win at the Grand National meeting since Hedgehunter won the National in 2005 yesterday with Boston Bob in the Melling Chase, could improve his Aintree form with Prince De Beauchene who has received huge market support over the past few days. 25/1 Coral.
Monbeg Dude
Monbeg Dude 14/1 has had a lot of market support recently, mainly because he's the story horse - partly owned by Mike Tindall and schooled by Zara Phillips, his jumping has improved massively over the past while to see him turn into a serious Grand National contender. As long as his improvements have been as vast as it appeared from his last run at Cheltenham, he could be the leading contender come 4.15 tomorrow.
Balthazar King
Form may not count for as much in the Grand National as it does in other races, but Balthazar King's fantastic form still has to be duly noted, having won on all of his four starts this season. Last year, he jumped fantastically but tired towards the end, but I wouldn't have any questions about him staying the trip this time around. 20/1 seems well worth a bet.
Add those four to the three ante post bets and we're in a very strong position, having staked no more than 7pts on the race, I would think, unless you wish to put an extra point on a horse, eg, Monbeg Dude. If I was backing them at anything other than level stakes, I would be having more on Monbeg Dude and maybe slightly smaller bet on Across The Bay. The ante post horses are still bets - if we hadn't backed them ante post, we would still be advising them now.
7 horses is a lot to be backing in a race. However, if we were to only pick up one win from all of these horses and no places, we would in 7pt profit at worst on level stakes. Most of them would almost cover our stakes on the race just by placing if we backed them each-way, so I'm not worried about the amount of horses.
Lion na Bearnai narrowly missed out on being put on the list, so if you're looking for one more bet, he's a longshot but an attractive one.
Summary:
- Pineau De Re 30/1 OR 20/1 (ante post. Now 30/1)
- Burton Port 28/1 (ante post. Now 16/1)
- Raz De Maree 50/1 OR 66/1 (ante post. Now 66/1)
- Across The Bay 66/1
- Prince De Beauchene 25/1
- Monbeg Dude 16/1
- Balthazar King 20/1
If you wanted to go for relative staking, the suggestion might be 1)3pts 2)3pts 3)3pts 4)1pt 5)2pts 6)5pts 7)3pts. That adds up to 20pts staked. But anyway, it's the National - do it your own way. Whether to back them win or e/w has been left up to you, but at massive prices for most of them, e/w would be no harm.
On a final note, enjoy the Grand National. The changes in the race have been good and bad. Tomorrow, we will probably see more class in the Grand National than there has been in previous renewals, but at what cost? Does the compression of the weights really help to create a fair race or does it try to create a system whereby the more popular horses win?
My hope for tomorrow will be that the horse who wins will be a good stayer and a good jumper. I would hope that tomorrow's race will test those two things - stamina, and, to put some worries from the back of our minds, jumping. It should be said, though, that most importantly, I hope that all horses and jockeys get through the race safely.
Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose and the very best of luck. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the world's greatest steeplechase.
On a final note, enjoy the Grand National. The changes in the race have been good and bad. Tomorrow, we will probably see more class in the Grand National than there has been in previous renewals, but at what cost? Does the compression of the weights really help to create a fair race or does it try to create a system whereby the more popular horses win?
My hope for tomorrow will be that the horse who wins will be a good stayer and a good jumper. I would hope that tomorrow's race will test those two things - stamina, and, to put some worries from the back of our minds, jumping. It should be said, though, that most importantly, I hope that all horses and jockeys get through the race safely.
Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose and the very best of luck. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the world's greatest steeplechase.
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