For these reasons among others, the Craven is one of the most well-regarded Guineas Trials. However, as the saying goes, "the stats don't lie", and it's the figures that will tell us whether or not we should respect the Craven for all it's hyped up to be in its role as a trial race for the 2000 Guineas, or whether we can take its annual running and resulting media hype with a pinch of salt.
Firstly, a summary of which trainers like to send runners to the Craven (figures based on the last 10 years)
Richard Hannon - 14 runners - 2 wins - 4 places
Barry Hills - 6 runners - 2 wins - 2 places (retired August 2011)
Sir Michael Stoute - 6 runners - 1 win - 1 place
John Gosden - 5 runners - 0 wins - 2 places
Peter Chapple-Hyam - 5 runners - 0 wins - 0 places
Here's the full record of the Craven runners who went on to run in the 2000 Guineas, since 2004:
| Horse | Craven Odds | Craven Place | Guineas Odds |
Guineas Place |
| 2004 | ||||
| Three Valleys | 2/1F | 2nd of 5 | 20/1 | 11th of 14 |
| Haafhd | 100/30 | 1st of 5 | 11/2 | 1st of 14 |
| 2005 | ||||
| Democratic Deficit | 12/1 | 1st of 8 | 20/1 | 6th of 19 |
| Kandidate | 50/1 | 3rd of 8 | 100/1 | 3rd of 19 |
| Rob Roy | 9/2 | 2nd of 8 | 6/1 | 19th of 19 |
| Iceman | 9/2 | 4th of 8 | 7/1 | 13th of 19 |
| Mister Genepi | 50/1 | 5th of 8 | 100/1 | 7th of 19 |
| 2006 | ||||
| Killybegs | 9/2 | 1st of 19 | 16/1 | 11th of 14 |
| 2007 | ||||
| Sonny Red | 16/1 | 2nd of 8 | 66/1 | 15th of 24 |
| Adagio | 5/4F | 1st of 8 | 4/1F | 12th of 24 |
| 2008 | ||||
| Scintillo | 25/1 | 9th of 10 | 100/1 | 11th of 15 |
| Ravens Pass | 11/8F | 2nd of 10 | 4/1 | 4th of 15 |
| 2009 | ||||
| Imperial Guest | 20/1 | 7th of 7 | 150/1 | 15th of 15 |
| Delegator | 4/6F | 1st of 7 | 3/1F | 2nd of 15 |
| Cheerful Delights | 9/1 | 3rd of 7 | 66/1 | 7th of 15 |
| 2010 | ||||
| Elusive Pimpernel | 10/11F | 1st of 19 | 9/2 | 5th of 19 |
| 2011 | ||||
| Native Khan | 8/11F | 1st of 6 | 16/1 | 3rd of 13 |
| 2012 | ||||
| Trumpet Major | 9/2 | 1st of 12 | 8/1 | 4th of 18 |
| Ptolemaic | 50/1 | 4th of 12 | 250/1 | 7th of 18 |
| 2013 | ||||
| Toronado | 8/11F | 1st of 4 | 11/4 | 4th of 13 |
First impressions looking at this would be that the Craven is not a particularly strong trial for the 2000 Guineas. The record of Craven horses in the Guineas is 1 win and 3 places from 20 runners in the last 10 years.
I've tried breaking this down a few different ways, based on trainer, stall, strength of each race, and more, to try to find a profitable angle here, but quite simply, the Craven is a very weak trial for the Guineas based on the form of the Craven runners in the Guineas in recent years.
Even more annoyingly from an analysis perspective, a horse's success before the Craven Stakes seems to have little effect on how they do in the Guineas. Going back over a longer period than is recorded above, here is how the horses did on their race before the Craven, and how they did in the Guineas:
| Finishing Position In Race Before Craven | Runners In Guineas | Wins In Guineas | Places In Guineas |
| 1st | 13 | 0 | 1 |
| 2nd | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 4th | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 5th | 4 | 1 | 1 |
These statistics are admittedly slightly more interesting and maybe we can take something from them - horses who came 3rd, 4th, or 5th in their last start before the Craven (often in their last race as a two-year-old). The reason that this is interesting is that there aren't many runners of this nature. In the last 10 years, 42 runners in the Craven came 1st of 2nd last time out, while 23 came 3rd, 4th or 5th. Another 13 had a worse placing than that, meaning that over half of the runners in the Craven over the last 10 years came 1st or 2nd on their last outing. Based on the above figures, these horses aren't at any advantage. In fact, they have performed very poorly in the Guineas in the past.
This year, there are 15 entries for the Craven, which takes place on Thursday. 8 of the 15 came 1st or 2nd last time out, and so it's the others which we'll be looking at with the Guineas in mind.
So, in summary - the Craven is a fairly weak race for the Guineas, with a relatively weak record for horses going to the 2000 Guineas from the Craven. I leave you with this final statistic:
The form of the Top 3 from the Craven when they go on to run in the 2000 Guineas since 2000:
165089007010360004275344 (27 runners - 2 winners - 3 places)
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