Monday, 28 April 2014

Punchestown Festival Day One Preview & Selections

Every year, a few weeks after the curtains close on the fierce rivalry between the British and the Irish at Cheltenham, Ireland challenge Britain to a rematch – one final last hurrah to end the jumps season, crown the Irish Champions and see if English raiders can beat them in their own back yard. Some rise to the challenge, others choose to rest and wait for next year’s National Hunt season, or sidestep the festival to run in alternative races at Aintree, Ayr or Sandown.

Regardless of the scale of England’s contribution, Punchestown is the showpiece of Irish jump racing and shows to the racing public all that is great about the sport which still flourishes in Ireland over 250 years after it was founded there.

The Irish answer to Cheltenham never fails to capture the imagination of the racing public, nor does it fail to produce top-class racing for the punter or neutral spectator. This year will be no different, with undisputed top Irish trainer Willie Mullins bringing an army of some of the world’s best racehorses to what has been his annual stomping ground.

Other Irish trainers will attempt to take Mullins’ thrown at the festival, if not in their overall number of winners then by beating his top horses in some of the feature races. There is some serious competition at Punchestown this year from other Irish yards and it’s great to see other trainers trying to overthrow the mighty Mullins, undoubtedly the King of the Festival over past years.

With Mullins having been the trainer with the most wins at Cheltenham this year also, English trainers will also be eager to have their horses beat him in some of Punchestown’s top races – although the English challenge this year is less exciting than last year (when chasing superstar Sprinter Sacre finished off an incredible season with a win in the Champion Chase), it will be no surprise to see trainers from other countries take a few races.

The festival can be unpredictable at times, but whatever way the results go, there are some things we can be sure of – the inevitable entertainment, excitement and atmosphere brought around by Punchestown is unique and, in its own way, hard to be matched anywhere else in the world. With the festival this year coming after Sandown and the final day being on the same day as the first Classic of the season takes place at  Newmarket, this will be the last bit of quality National Hunt racing we’ll witness for a few months.

Relish every minute of it. Punchestown is Ireland’s chance to show off its racing to the world. No doubt, a fantastic job will be done. Take it all in. It may be unpredictable, but it’s truly brilliant.

Now, though, on to the racing…

4.20 – Champion Novice Hurdle – 2m – Grade 1

Willie Mullins looks to continue his record in the top festival races with a win in the first Grade 1 of the 2014 festival, with the visually impressive winner of the Neptune Novices Hurdle, Faugheen, the 8/11 favourite in the Herald Champion Novices Hurdle. Faugheen’s form from the Neptune hasn’t been franked in the same sense as that of Vautour from the Supreme has, but all evidence to date would suggest that this year’s Neptune was a decent one, and it’s fair to say that Faugheen had no trouble beating his rivals in good fashion.

There have been only a small handful of subsequent runners from the race – 6th in the Neptune, Lieutenant Colonel, won a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, while 7th, Cole Harden, came 2nd in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree. This may not be as big a sample size as we have to compare the Supreme form, but it is promising nonetheless.

It’s unusual that I would bother with a bet at 8/11 without looking for some sort of a value alternative in the race, but I’m actually surprised that Faugheen isn’t shorter than his current price and he looks like one of the bets of the festival to me.

Elsewhere in the field, Wicklow Brave was a horse I was a fan of before the Supreme and he ran a good race on the day but he was comprehensively beaten by Valseur Lido last time out, even if it was on bad ground. Valseur Lido ran a decent race that day, and could be the one chasing home Faugheen today, but that was on bad ground which he would have loved.

An honourable mention goes to Western Boy, who should be happy enough with the conditions tomorrow as he likes a bit of a cut in the ground but should deal with faster going fine. Unlike a lot of this field, he hasn’t had a run between Cheltenham and today.

Also, 20/1 is slightly insulting for Real Steel, who has kept progressing since this time last year and has seemed to run each race better than the last since. He has only been outside of the places once in his career and, if you were looking for an outsider, he’s a long shot each-way bet. He will have Western Boy and Valseur Lido to beat, however, in what should be a race for 2nd behind Faugheen.

Faugheen 8/11 (NAP)
Longshot Of The Day: Real Steel 20/1 E/W

5.30 – Champion Chase – 2m – Grade 1


The feature race on day one of the festival is a very open one according to the betting, with current favourite Somersby available at 5/1 while 7th in the market is still 8/1 in places. Over the past few years, it has been preferable in this race to be a top class chaser who has had a good season, who is supposedly currently in form and, interestingly, who is proven over a longer trip over fences than today’s two miles.

Sizing Europe is a course specialist at Punchestown and has been an incredibly consistent horse for trainer Henry De Bromhead over the past eight years. Although connections have said nothing, you would think that this is likely to be a final run for the 12-year-old who has finished in the top 3 on 33 of his 41 career starts. He is a course specialist here, with 7 wins and another 3 places in his last 10 runs at Punchestown. If this is to be his last run, it would be great for connections and fans if he went out with a bang. Although nobody would begrudge him the win, his runs this year haven’t been up to his past standards, and he would be hard to back today.

Younger rivals look more likely to take the title of Irish Champion Chaser today, and while Ballynagour has been popular in the betting at the time of writing, all of his wins have been over longer and there’s no way of knowing whether he will have the speed for a 2-mile chase.

Hidden Cyclone ran a great race in the Ryanair to come 2nd behind Dynaste – as we know, there’s no shame in that. He should run a big race after what I would consider to be a career best effort at Cheltenham, but that was over 5f longer than this, and he’s probably at his best over a longer distance. Factoring in Andrew McNamara’s unimpressive Punchestown record (no wins from 21 runs), I’ll be giving Hidden Cyclone a miss today.

Module unexpectedly also ran a great race at Cheltenham in the Queen Mother, which showed that he is more or less at odds with today’s favourite Somersby, who ran to his usual standard to finish 2nd. Both Barry Geraghty and AP McCoy are in fine form at the moment and there will be no worries as to whether or not these two will be given a good ride today. If Module continues to progress at the rate he currently is, he will be a major player today. I find it hard to think of any reason why Module won’t run a big race and go far today. As regards Somersby, however, Mick Channon’s yard is not currently in top form and it’s hard to think that there’s much value in 4/1.

It’s worth noting that Davy Russell, who rides Savello, has a decent track record, but from what we’ve seen in the past, he’s not as good as some of the other horses in today’s race. When speaking about jockeys who do well at Punchestown, though, Ruby Walsh is the man at the top of anyone’s list, and he rides Twinlight in the Champion Chase.

Twinlight seemed to be progressing quickly at the start of the National Hunt campaign, before running a race slightly below previous form on his first start after Christmas, and following up with a terrible run in February. After this, it was fairly understandable that he didn’t go to Cheltenham, but Mullins ran him at Fairyhouse in a Grade 2 chase to come 2nd in a run which was on a par to how he was doing while at his peak. He didn’t quite have enough in the final furlong and it will be good to see him back over 2m today. Aside from Module, Twinlight is the horse I’m most interested in today, and he runs at a nice price of 7/1.
Module 11/2
Twinlight 7/1
(Same Stakes)

 

The rest of the card is trappy today, and I’ll give it a miss – the other Grade 1 is the Growise Champion Novice Chase, an interesting contest in which Ballycasey and Mozoltov both return after just a week and a half, having run on Easter Sunday in the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse – Mozoltov unseating Davy Russell and Ballycasey falling two out when travelling very well. You may view this as being unlucky, or you may wish to note how it adds to the alarming record of Willie Mullins’ novice chasers in graded company (what is alarming is their bad record in terms of wins – perhaps more worrying is the amount of fallers).

Djakadam also fell last time out in the Jewson and is coming in for market support – maybe it’s because of the popular Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh combination, maybe it’s because he gets 9lb from all the others. Another who fell at Cheltenham is Don Cossack, who couldn’t stay on his feet in the RSA but followed up with a decent run at Aintree. The bottom line is, I can’t recommend a bet in the race.

Faugheen is also the first of our festival bets – Record will be kept of Punchestown “Nap”s and we will see how the profit/loss is at the end of the week. Faugheen’s the only one for today as part of the idea is that we’re only suggesting one horse in the race (the longshot doesn’t really count in that situation).

The very best of luck and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.

4.20 – Faugheen 8/13 (NAP)
4.20 – Real Steel 20/1 (Longshot Bet)
5.30 – Module 11/2

5.30 – Twinlight 7/1

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