Craven Stakes Trends Analysis

Last year, the trends analysis brought some very good results and was comfortably in profit by the end of the season. This year, we're not starting until the top-class flat racing really gets underway. Here is the trends analysis of the Craven Stakes. Today's analysis in the first three sections is based on the last 17 years - from here onwards, it will only be based on the last 15, to keep all of the data relevant and easy to understand.

Stall

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	5	29%	8	47%
2	16	3	19%	3	19%	6	38%
3	15	1	7%	2	13%	3	20%
4	15	3	20%	3	20%	6	40%
5	15	1	7%	2	13%	3	20%
6	15	3	20%	1	7%	4	27%

We're interested in horses who run from stalls 1, 2, 4 and 6

1 - Toormore

2 - Patentar

4 - The Grey Gatsby

6 - Be Ready

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	51	5	10%	10	20%	15	29%
Second	21	3	14%	3	14%	6	29%
Fourth	8	2	25%	2	25%	4	50%
Seventh	6	1	17%	0	0%	1	17%

First, second and fourth last time out get points

(The only horse missing out here is The Grey Gatsby, who was 7th on his last appearance.)

Market Position

Market Position	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	18	8	44%	3	17%	11	61%
2	19	3	16%	10	53%	13	68%
3	18	2	11%	2	11%	4	22%
4	18	2	11%	2	11%	4	22%
5	14	1	7%	2	14%	3	21%
6	16	1	6%	2	13%	3	19%

The favourite and second favourite will pick up points here.

Form

4. 10 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season

5. 10 of the last 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo

6. 8 of the last 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo

7. 7 of the last 10 winners made their 2yo debut at Newmarket

8. 9 of the last 10 winners earned an RPR of 108+ on their last start

9. 8 of the last 10 winners had won at Newmarket (July or Rowley course)

10. 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f+

11. 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a group race as a 2yo

12. 9 of the last 10 winners ran at Newmarket or Doncaster on their last start

There are actually a lot of strong trends for the Craven which makes it a race fairly suited to our trends analysis. However, when we add up the scores, despite the amount of criteria, it's a fairly tight finish:

Horse

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Total

Anjaal

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

8

Toormore

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

9

Be Ready

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

7

Patentar

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

6

Postponed

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

6

The Grey Gatsby

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

6

So, we have our shortlist, and therefore, our winner:

1. Toormore - 9
2. Anjaal - 8
3. Be Ready - 7

The bet would be "1pt win on Toormore at 6/5 - 4.05 Newmarket, Craven Stakes"

However, I'm not really planning on beginning to keep a record of our profit and loss until the Classics themselves start, and then we will follow it throughout the summer.

Best of luck as always and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.