1.50 Newbury - John Porter Stakes
Personally, I won't be having a bet in this race, but it will be previewed and a selection will be made nevertheless. I can't see past the top of the market, like in the first at Ayr, and Mutshaded is the 7/2 favourite. He is rapidly improving, and was only rated 88 when he was 3rd in the King Edward behind Hillstar at Royal Ascot last year. He's one to watch this season, and although very unexposed, I'm keen to take him on with preference for a bit more experience.
Second and third in the market both look like possible bets - Astonishing 9/2 takes a step up in class from her last run, a listed win at the end of last season, and looks like she could take it in her stride. Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 6 times in the past and Astonishing could add to that today.
However, slight preference has to go to Noble Mission 11/2. He presents a bit more value, and was a close 3rd in this same race last year, with Quiz Mistress, also a runner today, coming 2nd. He has been a consistent horse throughout last season and although he can be a bit tricky at times, I would expect him to give a good performance today considering that he's a lot more fresh today than he would have been towards the end of last year. You could take the chance with a win bet but I would be more comfortable backing him each-way. As I set, a no-bet race for me.
Noble Mission 11/2 each-way
2.05 Ayr - Future Champion Novices' Chase
Whatever way I look at this race, I can’t see past the top two in the market. Valdez has been coming along well all season over fences, winning Class 4 and 3 handicaps over 2m 1f before winning a Grade 2 at Doncaster and then coming 5th in the Arkle, looking below Grade 1 standard but creditable all the same. He has to concede weight all round and at 5/4, this seems to be all that is keeping him from being an odds on shot. Ayr should suit on his course start and he will handle the going without any trouble.
Eduard is second in the market at 7/4 and we’re not really sure what he’s capable of. Since going chasing, he has won two of his three starts and come second in the other, but we have no idea what exactly he has beaten to date. If he’s up to the step up in class, and his jumping holds up, he could give the favourite a run for his money. His race over course and distance last month was easy for him and it will be interesting to see him tested against some tougher competition.
With two each-way places, I see little point in considering the rest of the field, who are a real step below the top two in the market. It would be risky to back Valdez, however, as we have no idea what Nicky Richards has up his sleeve in Eduard (Richards has been talking about this race for his 6 year old for a while now). The only bet I could have would be a reverse forecast between the top two.
2.40 Ayr - Scottish Champion Hurdle
My Tent Or Yours is the only runner from a fantastic
Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham who will run in the Scottish version of the race
today. His run at the festival wasn’t a fantastic one, and I am beginning to
come to the conclusion that he is a bit of a bridle horse who isn’t suited to
the tough and famous hill at Prestbury Park.
After twice trying unsuccessfully to win a race over hurdles
at Cheltenham, I would think that a chasing campaign could be on the cards next
season, and so there could be a chance that today will be the last time we see
him over these obstacles. Although it would be nice for him to sign off with a
win, and today’s flat track will present better conditions for him, I will be
looking to take him on today at odds of 11/10.
My view on the race would be that it’s going to be a closer
affair than the market suggests, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of
the field gives My Tent Or Yours a run for his money. Who to take My Tent on
with is the real question – although it may not seem like it at first glance,
this Champion Hurdle field could actually be a quality one.
Court Minstrel 8/1 probably makes the most appeal, coming
into the race on the back of a good win just 7 days ago at Aintree in a
handicap hurdle over only half a furlong longer than today. He was given a
lovely ride by Adam Wedge who had him held up patiently for the majority of the
race, making his move up the outside at the last moment to cover good ground
quickly, staying on to win. There may be worries that he won’t be as fresh as
some opponents today, but the record of horses who ran in the last 7 days in
this race is actually very good – 3 wins and a place from 12 runners in the
last 15 or so years.
Also of interest is Clever Cookie 9/1, who also won last
time out, at Kelso in a Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle over 2m 2f. He could easily put
in a big race today but he doesn’t represent much value, unlike 16/1 shot
Cockney Sparrow, last seen coming 5th in the Mares Hurdle (Quevega’s
race) at Cheltenham. She was badly hampered by the fall of Sire D’Ainay in that
race and picked up momentum again very well to finish a decent 5th,
behind more than one very good horse. She should be able to show us more back
on a flat track, and could outrun her odds today.
Court Minstrel 8/1
Cockney Sparrow 16/1
2.55 Newbury - Greenham Stakes
Kingman is a leading contender for this year's 2000 Guineas and he impressed in his two starts as a two year old, beating Emirates Flyer in a Group 3 over 7f at Sandown last time out. All going well today, he will surely be one of the big players in this year's Guineas field and is popular in the ante post already, with many shrewd punters choosing not to believe Aidan O'Brien's hype around Australia. However, he could well need the run today and I won't be backing him at 2/1, even though there is every chance he could bolt up.
These races are always important to watch and not always betting opportunities at the time. This could be the situation here as there is little between the next three in the market, while no outsiders make much appeal. 2nd in the market is Night Of Thunder 3/1, who we have never seen on ground which is anything other than soft, so he will have to be another one to watch today. Behind him are two who represent greater value - Berkshire 9/1 and Astaire 10/1. With 3 each-way places, I would be confident that one of these two would at least grab a place.
Berkshire, like Night Of Thunder, has never run on good ground, but has won good to firm so I don't think that there will be any issues on that front. Astaire, on the other hand, has won on the ground, and is more exposed. I expect the track to suit both (Berkshire placed in a Class 4 Maiden over 6f here on his debut). Astaire has a furlong to find today but should take it in his stride, while Berkshire is a distance winner. I will have an each-way bet on both.
Berkshire 9/1 each-way
Astaire 10/1 each-way
3.50 Ayr - Scottish Grand National
This year’s renewal of the Scottish Grand National promises
to be a good one with some quality horses in a competitive and large field of
30. Our trends analysis which helped us to pick the winner of the Crabbies
Grand National at Aintree last week gave the following shortlist:
Nuts N Bolts
|
91.15
|
Roberto Goldback
|
89.88
|
Midnight Appeal
|
89.88
|
Yes Tom
|
89.88
|
Roalco De Farges
|
89.88
|
Mister Marker
|
89.88
|
Summery Justice
|
89.88
|
We backed Nuts N Bolts on Thursday at 30/1, and the more I
study the race now, the more he seems like a value bet. I reckon that he will
love the ground tomorrow and also loves Ayr, whilst a lot of today’s
competitors could be eliminated on this criteria alone.
After backing him each-way two nights ago at 30/1, I think
we should top up today at 28/1 and back him to double stakes (ie, if all other
bets are taken at level stakes, this one should be 2pts rather than 1pt total
staked).
As for another bet, Pricewise selection Roalco De Farges has
a massive chance, and I’m fairly disappointed to see that Tom Segal selected
him – he has been all the rage both in the markets and on the exchanges. He can
still be gotten at 14/1 this morning and that’s a good win bet in my opinion,
which would probably cover all of our Ayr stakes if it came in.
And thirdly, another outsider I’m interested in is Mister
Marker at 33/1. Again, the concept of value comes into play as I think that
Mister Marker must be overpriced and could run a big race for an each-way bet. He
was last seen coming a strong 2nd at Ayr over just two and a half
miles, but he has run a decent race over this distance, 3rd in the
Scottish National last year behind Godsmejudge and Big Occasion.
Yes Tom and Roberto Goldback were both unlucky to miss out
on bets but three is enough is the Scottish National and I’m fairly confident
on Nuts N Bolts, I’m amazed that he’s not shorter already and I’ll be surprised
if he isn’t a bit of a steamer coming up to 3.50 this afternoon.
Nuts N Bolts each-way
28/1 (In addition to ante-post bet)
Roalco De Farges 14/1
Mister Marker 33/1 each-way
Roalco De Farges 14/1
Mister Marker 33/1 each-way
Bets
- 1.50 Newbury - Noble Mission 11/2 e/w
- 2.05 Ayr - Valdez + Eduard Rev. FC
- 2.40 Ayr - Court Minstrel 9/1
Cockney Sparrow 16/1 - 2.55 Newbury - Berkshire 9/1 e/wAstaire 10/1 e/w
- 3.50 Ayr - Nuts N Bolts 28/1 e/w (in addition to 30/1 e/w ante-post bet)
Roalco De Farges 14/1
Mister Marker 33/1 e/w - Total 10 pts staked
The very best of luck and don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
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