Powers Gold Cup Preview & Selections

4.40 – Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1 Novices Chase) – 2m 4f

This four-horse race is an interesting prospect for the punter – Ballycasey, Bright New Dawn, Mozoltov and Rebel Fitz are all in decent form recently and it’s very possible to make a serious case for any one of the four.

Bright New Dawn ran very well over hurdles, including a win at Fairyhouse in his maiden and two places in Grade 1 races, one of which was in the Deloitte, won by Champagne Fever. He began his chasing campaign by winning over 2m 4f at Punchestown, before connections decided to test him over 3m and discovered that he wasn’t ready to face the longer trip. He then went on to come 2^nd over 2m 5f, and followed up by winning over 2m 1f and then 2m 4f at Navan and Naas respectively. He is in with a massive chance today and it’s hard not to think that the bookies may underestimate him, at odds of 6/1, especially considering that he has never failed to place in his three starts at Fairyhouse.

Questions have been asked about his jumping at Naas last time out but I don’t see any clear problems and he got the job done. My only criticism of that race is that Mullaghanoe River looked to have been giving him a good race and definitely would have been competing for the win when he unseated Paul Carberry at the second last. Also, Bright New Dawn has been lucky enough to have Bryan Cooper on board for his last three starts, and Davy Russell prior to that, and will be ridden  Carberry today after Cooper was side lined after a horrible fall at Cheltenham.

We can’t tell much about Mozoltov based on his performance at Cheltenham, when he fell at the 1^st in the JLT Novices Chase. His reappearance, however, was at Navan over just 2m 1f, when he was given a good race and driven out towards the end by Irish Thistle. Mozoltov showed that he was suited to a longer distance, though, finding plenty on the run-in when Irish Thistle began to tire, and winning by a few lengths under Davy Russell. Russell will be on board today, a positive in my opinion, especially at Fairyhouse.  The main worry would be the going, on which Mozoltov has little or no experience, never mind success.

Rebel Fitz is the one many are picking to take on the favourite from the yard of Mick Winters. He will be a fairly fresh horse, having had only one race since October. This reappearance was a 2m 4f hurdle at Cork, a race he won easily despite heavy ground. He simply did nothing wrong and had no trouble pulling away from Tarla in the closing stages at a course he loves. It was nothing more than a warm up for the Powers Gold Cup, though, and the good to yielding ground today should suit more than heavy ground at Cork a few weeks ago. He has no course experience at Fairyhouse, though I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t like it. However, I’m not sure if this is his ideal race as connections suspect, and that, as well of the lack of form in Mick Winter’s stable at the moment, means that I won’t be backing him today.

Ballycasey, on the other hand, is a worthy favourite. His 4^th in the RSA, a good run until the turn for home,  simply showed that he doesn’t quite stay 3m 1f yet and his drop back down to 2m 4f should suit perfectly. That experience should also be of huge advantage going into this race, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get back to winning ways over the shorter trip – he is 2 wins from 2 runs over this distance, (the two wins were over hurdles and in a bumper). He has shown himself as a great chaser this year, with the RSA the last good run, but his seasonal debut is the one that stands out, an impressive win over 2m 1f on good ground in Navan which set him up as a decent chaser. His jumping is perfect and although he won’t have Ruby on-board today (another who suffered a bad fall at Cheltenham), I think that he could keep up his reputation as a promising horse over fences in the next couple of seasons with a win today.

As said, although this is the smallest field we’ve had in the race for five or six years, any one of the four horses could win it. I think that the favourite could well prove too good for the rest, but Bright New Dawn is the one I’m expecting to run a big race despite his odds, and I’ll have a saver on him considering his odds of 6/1

1 – Ballycasey

2 – Bright New Dawn

3 – Mozoltov

4 – Rebel Fitz

2 pts – Ballycasey 11/8

1 pt  – Bright New Dawn 6/1

These are relative stakes – what I’m saying is that you should put twice as much on Ballycasey as Bright New Dawn, only because of the odds.

As always, I advise betting with Bet365, who offer best odds on all Channel 4 races and a £200 or €200 matched first deposit. You can sign up here and begin taking advantage of their offers to make you more money from your betting.