Aintree Day 1 Preview & Selections

It seems almost surreal that it’s been a full year since The Parade Ring was set up, and the Grand National meeting took place at Aintree. The opening day of the 3-day feast of top class racing never fails to bring with it some fantastic and memorable moments, and some interesting punting opportunities with the potential to make us some good profits.

Of course, every day of racing brings with it punting opportunities – finding them is the only difficulty. Hopefully we can do so in what promises to be a hugely entertaining three days in Liverpool, climaxing with the greatest steeplechase the world has to offer.

To the present, though, and day one. Here it goes…

2.00 – Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle – 2m 1f – Grade 1

To start off this year’s festival, the 4yos go head to head over hurdles in a Grade 1 which will see many Cheltenham runners reunited. Indeed, 8 of the 15 runners here ran at Cheltenham, in both the Fred Winter (Baradari, Clarcam, Handiwork, Hawk High, Violet Dancer) and the Triumph Hurdle (Guitar Pete, Calipto, Broughton). Those who ran in the latter seem more of interest based on individual talent alone, and factoring in the fact that it was, it would seem, a much stronger race, they are of interest.

No excuses can be made for Broughton’s run – although he is dangerous if back to his flat form and seemed to be taking brilliantly to his hurdling career, he disappointed at Cheltenham and it’s hard to find a reason why. Guitar Pete came 3^rd in the Triumph, beating Calipto whose stirrups broke in the closing stages (a hard luck story which makes the punters lump on – more on that later), but running a fine race and looking like a solid, reliable horse all season.

With this in mind, along with the fact that the ground is on the soft side of good, which could cause problems for competitors, Guitar Pete looks like a bet. A reliable horse who hasn’t failed to place so far this season, he would be very solid if we backed him each-way. However, this game is about courage, and at 13/2, a win bet would be the more profitable option. As a side note, I’m a big fan of Broughton and would love to see him return to previous form at 16/1, but with no evidence to say he will, other than his return to a flat track which will certainly suit him, he’s not back-able on this occasion.

At massive prices, Handiwork and Violet Dancer could be overpriced but are longshots nevertheless. I would think that most likely to be chasing home Guitar Pete today is Calipto, Hawk High, or of course Broughton.

GUITAR PETE 13/2

2.30 – BetFred Bowl – 3m 1f – Grade 1

This year’s renewal of the BetFred Bowl is not lacking in class, but more so in the size of the field, with 6 runners meaning only 2 e/w places. Therefore, it looks like we need to pick a winner in this one, rather than a big-priced e/w bet. Dynaste heads the betting after a fantastic display in the Ryanair at Cheltenham over 2m 5f, and he looks like he will appreciate the step back up to today’s trip. Fantastic he may be, consistent he is not, and I don’t need to give you examples of past occasions when he ran similarly fantastically only to disappoint when asked to repeat the feat.

First Lieutenant was last year’s winner and has been running similarly this season to last year, putting in valiant performances. He was worrying early on in the year but his 2^nd behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus showed that he still has what it takes to perform at the top level. Withdrawn on the morning of the Gold Cup, he may be fresher than the others here but that won’t count for everything. Honestly, I don’t think that he’ll be strong enough win this race for the second year in a row, and if his competitors run to their best, he’ll have a much tougher task than he did at this time last year.

The selection, though, has to be Silviniaco Conti. He probably hit the front too early in the Gold Cup, but this year’s renewal of the Cheltenham showpiece is hardly form to analyse, with the lowest-rated winner in a long time (based on Timeform ratings) and two of the best staying chasers in training finishing outside of the places. Of course, that’s the nature of racing and I say this with no disrespect to the winners or any others. Conti was travelling very well two years ago when he fell three from home in the Gold Cup, and followed it up by coming here to this same race, when he clearly wasn’t himself.

After that, he came 3^rd in the Betfair Chase (won by Cue Card) before finishing strongly in the King George to reverse the form with the Tizzard’s front-runner. All looked good going into the Gold Cup, when… well, we’re not quite sure what happened. It’s fair to say, though, that Silviniaco Conti was far from disgraced and shouldn’t have to wait for the Betfair to get a win this time around.

Finally, a note on Menorah, who has been priced up at around 12/1. I had been hoping for a bigger price considering the talent of the first three in the market, but it could be worth noting that I would not be surprised to see Menorah in the mix in what has been billed as a three-horse race. Certainly, it would be no surprise to see Menorah pick up 2^nd place. If there were 3 e/w places, I would be having an each-way bet here. Seeing as there are only two, I think I’ll have to sit it out.

SILVINIACO CONTI 5/2

3.05 – Aintree Hurdle – 2m 4f – Grade 1

The Aintree Hurdle is a prime example of how far below its potential a field can be at Aintree, mainly due to the fact that the meeting takes place only three weeks after the Cheltenham festival. Given how strong a race the Champion Hurdle was, and how many questions it left unanswered, it’s a pity that we won’t see a race of a similar calibre today, albeit a Grade 1.

The New One was badly hampered by the fatal and tragic fall of Our Conor in the Champion Hurdle, leaving him with a lot of ground to make up, which he did in style. His incredible ability to get back into the race left him favourite for next year’s renewal at the festival. He showed real class that day and if he can come close to emulating it today, he should win. Punters took notice, of course, which is why his odds today are 2/5 at best. Fair, maybe, but hardly workman’s prices. Nevertheless, he  has to be the selection, whether he represents value or not.

I wouldn’t expect Mullins to sit back and watch The New One’s magic, however, and his Diakali sits comfortably on a lovely each-way price of 10/1. Although there may only be two places on offer, it’s easy to forget when surrounded by the hype that no horse in unbeatable, and I would hope that Diakali might put it up to The New One today, if only to make a race out of it. I would be relatively confident in the reverse forecast, which could be worth a bet. Otherwise, back Diakali “w/o The New One” at 5/2 with Totesport, which is slightly better odds than backing him to place with Bet365.

THE NEW ONE 2/5
THE NEW ONE, DIAKALI REVERSE FORECAST OR DIAKALI W/O TNO 5/2

3.40 – Fox Hunters Chase – 2m 5f 110yds

Firstly, it’s good to see the race being called “Crabbie Supporting The Hillsborough Families Fox Hunters Chase”. If you were unhappy with the small fields earlier, this 22-runner handicap should cheer you up (a word of caution to be absolutely certain you get four places. Plenty of bookies only offering three.)

The Fox Hunter’s Chase is never an easy puzzle to solve but three horses have caught my eye, each of whom I feel may be worth an each-way bet. Firstly, at 12/1, Richards Sundance has shown something good in his starts so far this season, most recently in two Foxhunter Trials, coming 2^nd and 1^st and beating a couple of decent horses along the way, among them National hope Pineau De Re. Connections will be only delighted to see a bit of a cut in the spring ground and Richards Sundance should relish it. Although it’s his first start at Aintree and his record on left-handed tracks is bad (and his record on flat tracks isn’t anything to boast about either) he looks like a decent each-way bet at 12/1 to me.

However, if we’re planning on betting each-way we might as well go looking for a bit more value, and Pentiffic 18/1 might represent that in a confusing yet interesting field.  Venetia Williams’ will probably be heavily backed this weeks if the ground deteriorates, and Pentiffic, like many of his stable mates, would probably rather the ground after a few more showers. How the actual going is is hard to tell at the time of writing, but if it turns out to be closer to soft than good, I’ll be delighted to be backing Pentiffic.

Finally, 20/1 seems a nice price about Brunswick Gold who has 3 winners under his belt already this season, including last time out over 3m in Huntingdon last February on heavy ground. He seems to be a horse who can handle more or less any type of ground and has the ability to put in a big performance.

You could dutch the three of them to a single stake if that’s your kind of betting, but it’s not mine, so all I will suggest is an e/w bet on each of them. If you wanted to you could half the stake so as not to be staking too much on the one race – it’s up to you really.

RICHARDS SUNDANCE 12/1 E/W
PENTIFFIC 18/1 E/W
BRUNSWICK GOLD 20/1 E/W

4.15 - Red Rum Chase – 2m – Grade 3

So, the last of our previewed races (but not the last race of the day, don’t worry) is the Red Rum Chase, a 17-runner handicap over 2m. Strangely enough for a race of this nature, no outsiders really catch the eye at all and it would seem, unfortunately, that the market has this one more or less correct. My two fancies are both in the top 4 in the market.

Claret Cloke is 4/1 favourite, which is fairly justified considering the fact that he beat plenty of other runners here in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, when he ran a big race to come 3^rd. He was travelling very nicely before a bad mistake at the second last which saw him lose momentum and effectively the race. That was just his fourth start over fences so progression is expected even since then, and it would be no surprise to see him run another massive race today, even if he did pay 4lb for his impressive showing at the festival.

Elsewhere, Sound Investment 9/1 could be great value based on his last performance, a very impressive one at Sandown last month over 2m, winning at odds of 4/11 by 13l on the same ground as today.

Elsewhere, anyone looking for outsiders at bigger prices may want to note Parsnip Pete 25/1,  and Bullet Street 33/1. Turn Over Sivola is also worth noting at 8/1.

CLARET CLOKE 4/1
SOUND INVESTMENT 9/1

Summary:

• Guitar Pete 13/2
• Silviniaco Conti 5/2
• The New One 2/5
  Diakali w/o The New One 5/2 OR Diakali + The New One Rev. Forecast
• Richards Sundance 12/1 e/w
  Pentiffic 18/1 e/w
  Brunswick Gold 20/1 e/w
• Claret Cloke 4/1
  Sound Investment 9/1

As always the very best of luck, and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.

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