Tuesday, 29 April 2014

Punchestown Gold Cup Preview & Selections

Well , day one of the Punchestown Festival didn’t fail to excite and although the opening day of the meeting lived up to its reputed unpredictability at times, the top quality racing and fantastic stories which yesterday brought with it are unrivalled.

In the first Grade 1 of the meeting, Faugheen went off 1/2 favourite and was a popular choice to get Mullins off to a winning start after a visually impressive performance in the Neptune at Cheltenham. The race began with Wicklow Brave shying away from the tape, running backwards and brining our longshot of the day, Real Steel, with him, thus leaving them both with considerable ground to make up. Ruby Walsh set a quick pace on Faugheen who travelled beautifully and jumped fluently throughout.

It was on the turn for home that Ruby asked him to pick up the pace a bit and Faugheen quickened, making his rivals look less than ordinary, tearing away and finishing incredibly while barely breaking a sweat and looking like he had loads left in the tank. If anyone doubted Faugheen’s abilities over 2 miles, they were silenced by the unbeaten 6-year-old today, who produced a simply breath-taking display.

The racing world were quick to react and it would have to be argued that the suggestions that Faugheen could well be the best horse currently in training over jumps were not completely unfounded. Yet again, the Punchestown Festival has left a racing public dreaming of what is to come next year, from a horse who, if he stays over hurdles, will have Jezki, The New One, and My Tent Or Yours quaking in their boots at the thoughts of a clash at Cheltenham next year in the Champion Hurdle.

There wasn’t much time to sit and marvel at the wonder that was Faugheen  - the feature race of the day was the Champion Chase, an open affair involving several decent horses but no Sire De Grugy, and no contenders to the class of last year’s winner, Sprinter Sacre.

A fantastic Punchestown story – described as heart-warming more than once today – was the victory of twelve-year-old Sizing Europe, an old, reliable, consistent course specialist who never failed to bring his best when he contested a race at Punchestown over his long and decorated career. He was written off by us and many others in favour of other horses, and although you might say that he got a bit lucky with plenty of other contenders being hampered, nobody could begrudge Sizing Europe, Henry De Bromhead or other connections one last win before it was announced that Sizing Europe would be retired.

As for our two selections in the race, Module was pulled up after being badly hampered by the fall of Shark Hanlon’s Hidden Cyclone, when there was no way he could get back into the race. I was disappointed to see him out as I had him down as the most likely winner and I would have liked to see how he would have done against Sizing Europe, but that’s racing and we can’t complain. Twinlight, on the other hand, is beginning to look like a bit of a dodgepot – he ran well for the first half of the race, making the running for a short period of time from the start but fading away later on and finding nothing in the end.

Today’s feature race, though, is, on paper anyway, an even better one – the Punchestown Gold Cup will feature Boston Bob and On His Own as well as big names of the sport such as First Lieutenant and Long Run. Here it goes…

5.30 – Punchestown Gold Cup – 3m 1f – Grade 1

Very strangely, there was actually no Grade 1 “Gold Cup” race at Punchestown until 1999, but now the Gold Cup attracts some top quality horses from all over Ireland and further afield, normally including some who have run both in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National. This year is no different, with On His Own having been touched off by Lord Windermere in what can only be called a strange Cheltenham Gold Cup. Interestingly enough, last year’s winner, Sir Des Champs, also came 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, albeit in a different style to On His Own. There’s no doubt that he’ll be a major player today, with everything supposedly in his favour.

Willie Mullins isn’t placing all of his eggs in one basket, however, with Boston Bob also an interesting runner, coming into the race off the back of a decent win in what admittedly a weak Melling Chase at Aintree. He again disappointed at Cheltenham this year, but it was over a smaller trip and he more than made up for it at Aintree. Ruby has interestingly chosen to ride him instead of On His Own, which could suggest that Boston Bob, always held in high regard by Mullins and connections, might begin to reach his full potential now.

Lyreen Legend travelled very well in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and entered the tracker that day as one to watch on the next outing. I was very disappointed to see that he was entered in this, though, as I’m not sure that the race is suited to him and he will have a lot to do to win today. If he does end up being the winner, we will simply keep watching him in the future but I can’t back him today as he should have a lot to do.

After his run at Aintree where he was a firm second-best to Silviniaco Conti, it’s no surprise to see that First Lieutenant has been given relatively long odds today of 6/1. He’s a highly unpredictable horse and not one that it’s really a good idea to back regularly. He wears blinkers for the first time today which could well have him running to his best but I’ll have to give it a miss. As for Long Run, who until this year had never failed to place, he seems to be nothing like his former self this season and can’t really be a bet today.

It would seem that On His Own is definitely the pick of the top of the market but the one that excites me most is a value option available at 10/1. The champion jockey AP McCoy is a bonus always, but he seems to be in decent form at the moment with a 35% win rate in the last 7 days. He placed at Punchestown once in his last two runs there and I would hope that he might go one better tomorrow against higher-rated opponents.

On trends, Argocat ticks more or less all the boxes – a recent run, a certain level of consistency over his last two starts, proven over the distance (or slightly shorter), enough chasing experience… It’s a big statement but I really think that he could give these higher-rated and supposedly superior horses a decent run today. That may sound like a stupid statement come six o’clock tomorrow evening, yet courage is the name of the game and we’ll get nowhere simply backing favourites in every race.

On His Own 7/2
Argocat E/W 10/1
(Same stakes. An alternative to backing Argocat each-way, you could back him with Paddy Power who offer money back if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd in the race).

It should be noted that there are no Punchestown bets today (ie, the bets we keep track of separately as our best Punchestown tips of the festival - Faugheen won easily yesterday, we're waiting - biding our time until a big one comes around again!

UPDATE: If/when Black Hercules is a non-runner, we're going to back Shaneshill win and Patsio each-way. Get the 4/1 and 33/1 if you can. Both will be to level stakes. If Black Hercules stays in the race, our shortlist of three is too big and we won't have a bet. 

As always, best of luck and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I would suggest that you back On His Own with Paddy Power and avail of their money back offer. Good luck.

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