A proper review of Aintree is yet to come, and I will attempt to add up the profits to level stakes - obviously this will be hard as we don't advise with a definite points system but there is no doubt that you should be in profit following the 20/1 win yesterday. Day one got us off to a good start, we had only one winner from four bets on day two, and the support card at Aintree didn't give us any returns yesterday - it was about to look like we would end the meeting in a loss until Pineau De Re came along and saved the day!
Today is a decent enough card at Fairyhouse, and I have made a couple of selections in what are fairly trappy races on bad ground - small stakes, bet with caution.
3.15 - Mares Novice Hurdle - 2m 4f - Grade 1
What is in theory the feature race of the day is actually quite a hard one to figure out. 2/1 is a ridiculous price for Adriana Des Mottes, even if she did run very well here on her 2nd last outing, when she didn't have quite enough to beat stablemate Abbyssial to the line. Both went on to be unlucky in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham - Abbyssial fell while running prominently at the 2nd, bringing down Adriana Des Mottes in the process. However, the market can often over-compensate for such a hard-luck story (Calipto on Thursday is a good example) and 2/1 is still not a backing price for me.
More of interest towards the top of the market is Urticaire 4/1, 2nd on both of her last two outings, most recently running a fine 2nd behind Katie T in Limerick over 2 miles, finding a lot but possibly too early to be passed out before the line. The story was the same on her previous outing of 2m 4f, when she made her move and hit the front before coming over the last only to be passed out on the run in by stable companion Upsie. I would think that with a more patient ride from Davy Russell today, she could well come out on top and get the win she has been waiting for.
At longer odds, I'm a huge fan of Beluckyagain who likes the course and could be overpriced at 22/1 in what is far from a top quality race, as Grade 1's go. With a win on his sole start on this ground, and past success on heavy ground as well, he should have no trouble in the conditions, and could be a decent each-way bet today.
However, the value may lie in a long shot each-way bet on rank outsider Cookie Jar at 50/1, who failed to impress on his first outing of the season, but is sure to have improved for the run. I can't say that he will love the testing ground but should handle it and I wouldn't mind a small saver on him.
Urticaire 40/1
Beluckyagain 22/1 E/W
Longshot Of The Day: Cookie Jar 50/1 E/W
2.40 - Novice Hurdle - 2m - Grade 2
If there's one thing that Aintree taught us, it's that the form from this year's Supreme is rock solid. Although the real test will come when we see how this year's novice hurdlers shape up against the older horses, runners from the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham performed fantastically at the Grand National meeting. Here's a summary of Supreme runners at Aintree:
15th, Splash Of Ginge, came 2nd in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices Hurdle behind Cheltenham winner Lac Fontana
8th, Un Ace, was pulled up in the same race
5th, Wilde Blue Yonder, came 4th in the same race
2nd, Josses Hill, won the Grade 2 Top Novices Hurdle
4th, Sgt Reckless, came 2nd in the same race behind Josses Hill
Aside from suggesting that Vautour, the impressive Supreme winner, is an absolute beast and not just visually impressive, this tells us that a horse who ran very well in the Supreme only to die out in the closing stages and finish 6th should be massively respected. This horse is Wicklow Brave, who runs in this Grade 2. I noted after the festival that ideally I would back Wicklow Brave on a flat track rather than a very undulating one such as Cheltenham but the slight undulations at Fairyhouse are almost irrelevant in this regard. With some firms still holding on to evens, he is a bet today. However, a word of warning that I wouldn't be lumping on considering the fact that the testing ground could throw up some strange results and there are other horses in the field who will by no means sit back and watch Wicklow Brave storm to victory.
Picking just one of these for an each-way bet is tough. Second in the marker, Valseur Lido, demands respect and should be watched - also, he could be the one to put into the forecast. The ground will actually probably suit him more than it will Wicklow Brave, and he's not one to overlook here. Of the others, City Slicker 28/1 and Waxies Dargle 16/1 are of interest, the ground not much of an issue for either of them. Slight preference goes to Waxies Dargle, with AP on board, who has a fantastic record at Fairyhouse.
Wicklow Brave evens
Waxies Dargle 16/1 E/W
(Optional Rev. Forecast: Wicklow Brave + Valseur Lido)
As I said, small stakes - it's a trappy card that could throw up some surprises, especially on soft-heavy ground. Best of luck and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.
I would suggest betting with Bet365 who have a range of special offers for us to take advantage of, beginning with the €200 or £200 matched bet when you sign up for an account. You can sign up by clicking this link.
I would suggest betting with Bet365 who have a range of special offers for us to take advantage of, beginning with the €200 or £200 matched bet when you sign up for an account. You can sign up by clicking this link.
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