It would be in no way helpful for me to give my opinion on Kingman, who tore up the ground to leave a strong Greenham field in his wake. The performance from John Gosden's colt was spectacular, and he has shown speed that quite simply can win a 2000 Guineas. Comparisons between him and the mighty Frankel might be slightly premature, but to go to such lengths to describe how visually impressive he was is understandable.
His price has predictably collapsed to 6/4 at best (Paddy Power) while other firms have even gone to evens. Judging by the fact that the 6/4 was available all around an hour after the race on Saturday, it would seem that the money is pouring in for Kingman to win the 2000 Guineas, and rightly so. His win caught the eye and he did finish at least 5 lengths ahead of the field.
Although it was felt (by us in our preview, anyway) that Kingman was liable to need the run ("However, he could well need the run today and I won't be backing him at 2/1, even though there is every chance he could bolt up"), he had no cobwebs to shake off and was sharp, primed and ready to attack when the moment came for him to make his move and take the lead from Astaire. He certainly didn't need the run, and it should be mentioned that John Gosden's stable is in fantastic form at the moment.
Compare this fantastic form (of his 14 previous runners before Kingman, 8 were winners), with that of Richard Hannon, trainer of Greenham 2nd Night Of Thunder. When Night Of Thunder ran, it had been six days since Hannon had his last winner, with only one place in that period of time. This is stark contrast to Gosden's currently superb form and you would have to wonder whether Night Of Thunder could have come that bit closer to Kingman on Saturday had his stable been in form.
Obviously, you'll laugh at the idea of Night Of Thunder beating Kingman had his yard been in better form. That's not what I'm saying. Firstly, let's have a look at the Greenham Stakes (unfortunately I couldn't find a good video and this low quality YouTube footage is all we have - if anyone knows of better footage please let us know via Twitter or in the comments).
Night Of Thunder ran from Stall 7 and quickly came inside under Ryan Moore, cutting across in front of Lat Hawill avoiding trouble from Kingman, who, you may have noticed, running from stall 8, decided to run sideways for a second after leaving the stalls. Moore quickly got Night Of Thunder into a good position, fairly prominent, and by 20 seconds in the video you can clearly see him in the red and white cap to the outside of the unsettled Berkshire, while Kingman is slightly behind on the outside Night Of Thunder, in a pink cap. He ran on very quickly to be 3rd, sitting comfortably as they began to settle coming up to the half-way stage (around 44 seconds in the video).
When Astaire drifted out to the rails and Kingman made his move (1.15), Night Of Thunder was quick to follow suit on the inside of Kingman. For the first few seconds, Night Of Thunder travels as well as Kingman before Kingman picks up the pace and seals his reputation as Guineas favourite. The rest, as Kingman is concerned, is history. However, this is where we keep watching Night Of Thunder, who himself draws away from the field, running a fine race to chase Kingman home.
The first question would be whether Night Of Thunder is running on away from tired rivals, or whether he was simply faster and better than the field (excluding Kingman, obviously). At first glance, the other horses seem to slow down, but the late burst of quick pace from Master Carpenter and from another horse up the outside (Golden Town, maybe?) show that there was still pace left in the field and it was no match for that of Night Of Thunder.
You may remember that we chose to ignore Night Of Thunder last Saturday because he had never run on ground that was anything other than soft. After running an absolute stormer on good ground at Newbury last Saturday, this is no longer a worry in the slightest. I think that this horse could be an exciting prospect going forward - the Guineas being the main aim.
Probably the most impressive record from a stallion in the 2000 Guineas over the past 10 years has been that of Dubawi. His offspring have produced 3 Guineas runners in that time period. Of the three, one won the first Classic of the year while the other two placed. There are just two colts by Dubawi entered in this year's renewal - one is Postponed, a 50/1 shot who hasn't been seen since last October and who is trading at up to 400/1 on the exchanges. The other's name is Night Of Thunder. I wouldn't be surprised to see the latter uphold Dubawi's impeccable record in the race.
The old saying goes that the Guineas is the final race of the 2-year-old season, meaning that juvenile form is vital when picking a Guineas horse, and it's fair to say that Night Of Thunder did nothing wrong in his first season on the track. He began his career in what wasn't a bad 6f maiden at Goodwood - 3rd that day went on to run well to come 2nd in a listed race - where he did everything right to come home 1st and earn himself a place in plenty of notebooks.
From there, he went on to run in a listed race over 6f - the opener on Racing Post Trophy day at Doncaster, this time facing slightly tougher opposition, namely Stubbs of Ballydoyle, a listed winner who had run in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot. He travelled perfectly down the outside, again doing everything right, and was asked by Richard Hughes to pick up the pace slightly coming into the last 2f in order to keep with the leader - he did so without any strain whatsoever. Inside the last furlong was when Night Of Thunder began to shine, though. He took off and drew clear from the field, immediately responding to Hughes and looking like an impressive horse who could do damage to a quality field.
Then, after a break, it was on to the Greenham, which is analysed above. The Greenham, in my opinion, showed Night Of Thunder's ability against tough opposition (he was by no means disgraced by Kingman) and also his versatility on both good and soft ground.
So, where to next for Night Of Thunder? If he runs in the Guineas (and I see no reason why he shouldn't) I will be backing him each-way, provided there is value present. I wouldn't mind him as an ante post bet, as there is value present as a result of the betting all being surrounding a select few at the top of the market. 25/1 with Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and Betfair Sportsbook is a good price for an each-way bet and I'll be happy to have one now. Elsewhere, the 65/1 currently on offer with 32Red is ridiculous and there to be taken advantage of.
Even if he doesn't go in the Guineas, Night Of Thunder goes in my notebook as a next time out winner and I'll be keeping a keen eye on this horse over the coming months.
Night Of Thunder each-way 2000 Guineas - 65/1 (32Red) OR 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
UPDATE 15/4/14: Richard Hughes has said today that the French Guineas is the more likely option for Night Of Thunder. The reasons he gives are that Night Of Thunder is slightly better when he can get his toe in (conditions more likely to be present in Paris than Newmarket), and it's an easier mile, which would suit Night Of Thunder. If you haven't had an ante post bet yet on the English 2000 Guineas, I would hold off until we hear whether or not he runs. Meanwhile, if he does run in the French 2000 Guineas, he will be an almost certain bet and I'll be backing him as soon as an ante post market is available. I have added another bet today ahead of the Craven Stakes, which represents a lot of value in the Guineas market. Again, he's not a definite runner, but he is a big price and could keep up Dubawi's fantastic record in the race. See below:
Edit: I'll also have an each-way bet on Postponed, who runs in the Craven tomorrow. He began his juvenile career by coming 5th in what proved to be a red-hot maiden, producing 6 next-time-out winners, including Postponed himself. He went on to run a much better race when winning a maiden over 7f on good to firm ground at Yarmouth, winning easily enough from a field which also went on to produce some decent subsequent form.
Finally, he ran a close 2nd in the £271,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy, showing his ability to beat better horses. 50/1 seems too big to me, as does to 160/1 which is up for the taking on the exchanges. It's just a small bet - he may not even make it to the Guineas - but he runs in the Craven this week and I don't want to wait until his price collapses and it's too late, as it will do if he runs a big race on Thursday.
Posponted each-way 2000 Guineas - 160/1 (exchanges) OR 50/1 (SkyBet, Coral, 888Sport)
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