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Magic Florence - 2.10 Musselburgh

One of the most key races in terms of follow-up form was the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes on March 29th at Doncaster, which has a fantastic record coming from its runners in their subsequent runs. On their first appearance after the race, the horses who came 2nd and 3rd that day both won, while the horses who came 5th, 9th and 17th placed on their next start. The record of horses from that race in their next run, then, is 6 runs, 2 winners and 3 places, a fantastic win/place rate.

Magic Florence was 4th that day and it would look at this stage as if there may have been some very good horses in front of and behind him on the day (remember that 2nd and 3rd won next time out and 5th was placed). It was a race that carries plenty of potential going forward and it will be very interesting to see if Magic Florence can add to the race's almost perfect record for horses running on their next appearance.

Although betting in races which include unraced 2yo's will not be a profitable strategy in the long run, these statistics are hard to ignore and so I wouldn't mind a small (and I emphasise small) bet on Magic Florence tomorrow in the 2.10 at Musselburgh. It's worth remembering that 4 of the 6 runners in tomorrow's race are unraced to date and another won on her first start just two weeks ago. It's hard to put your money on a filly at the best of times, never mind when the opposition is completely unexposed.

James Given's 2yos tend to improve with racecourse experience and I would expect Magic Florence to improve from her decent run last time out. With none of the bookmakers having priced up the race yet, she is nevertheless popular on the exchanges, at around 2/1 at the moment. I will not be lumping on at the prices, but a small bet would do no harm if you were interested.