The Gold Cup is also a strong race, with a few decent staying chasers running including Godsmejudge, a horse who has suffered from his setbacks this season and had to miss the Grand National at Aintree only to run a massive race in the Scottish National at Ayr, a race he won in 2013. We've done a full preview and selections for the race on a separate post which you can view here.
The flat racing is truly underway and although the jumps take center stage for today, the Guineas are still only a week ago, with Kingman backers praying for some rain so that John Gosden will run his impressive colt. Meanwhile, Rizeena remains the overwhelming favourite for the 1000 Guineas with more market support coming in.
I would suggest that you bet on any of today's selections with Bet365, who are offering best odds guaranteed on all races, are guaranteed to beat the odds of other major bookmakers including Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in all Channel 4 races, and offer 5 places in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. You can sign up and take advantage of their free matched first deposit to a maximum of €200 or £200 by clicking this link and signing up in the top left hand corner. More details at the end of this post.
For now, though, let's get to the racing:
2.05 Sandown –
Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
The opening television race of the day is a tough one to
make sense of from a betting perspective, but the soft ground at Sandown today
makes a lot of the races easier to narrow down, and there are two at nice odds
who are of interest at nicer prices.
Ravens Tower 11/1 ran on well to win at Ascot last time out
over 2m, and although the competition will be slightly tougher today, 11/1
still looks a decent price. Hardly any of the horses in this race have course
form, but I would expect Sandown to suit, and the conditions will also be
perfect. Saint Jerome 14/1 takes an even bigger step up in class today but is
in flying form and could run his race today, on his bid to get four in a row.
He has been hugely consistent and could well do it again today, even if he is
in better company.
Ravens Tower 11/1 E/W
Saint Jerome 14/1 E/W
Sir Reginald has been backed into favouritism this morning
and it comes as no surprise considering he has very little weight to carry,
despite finishing very strongly over 6f at Doncaster last time out. He looked
like he needed the extra furlong which he will get today and could be dangerous
over this trip. His recent run will also do him good – there are still a few
horses in the field without a run yet this season who will have cobwebs to
shake off. He looks a very solid each-way bet.
For more value, though, Bertiewhittle is a horse I’ve liked
for a while and his consistency is summed up by the fact that he has placed on
all of his last five outings (without managing to pick up a win). In fact, he
hasn’t managed a win since 2011, but his second last start was probably his
best ever, and he followed up with another very strong run in better company a
couple of weeks later. I’m surprised that he can be gotten at 14/1 today and an
each-way bet looks to be on the cards.
Sir Reginald 13/2 E/W
Bertiewhittle 14/1
E/W
2.40 Sandown –
Oaksey Chase
Menorah ran well at Aintree, but was a good bit behind
Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste. Although this is an easier race, Menorah is known
to come alive at Aintree and I’m not sure if he will be able to repeat his
Aintree run today, even if this is over a shorter distance.
Rolling Aces is weak in the market this morning but is a progressive
sort who ran fantastically in what was admittedly abelow-par Melling Chase
behind Boston Bob. This will be another tough task but he is a Grade 2 winner
and he could well run a big race today. With only two each-way places, it’s
best to stick with just the win bet here and that will be Rolling Aces, who
wears a tongue-tie today, thought to bring about more improvement.
Rolling Aces 3/1
3.00 Limerick - Notebook
Runner
Dash ran in her maiden over 7f at Limerick a few weeks ago
on soft to heavy ground, coming 3rd in a race won by an odds-on
favourite. He ran fantastically to finish 3rd, was the most eye
catching horse in the field, and should have improved no end for the run.
Today, he wears cheek pieces for the first time which could bring about further
improvement and I would be surprised if he doesn’t put in a big race today. The
policy of not betting in maidens with unraced horses has been proven over the
last few weeks with Ruby Tuesday and a few others, but I’m amazed at 10/1 about
this horse today. If betting, it would be each-way.
Notebook Runner: Dash
10/1
3.15 Sandown – Celebration Chase
As the name of the race would suggest, today’s renewal may
be more of a celebration than a competition – Sire De Grugy is set to top off a
fantastic season here today, with current odds of 1/3 and everything set to
suit. People still had their doubts coming into the Champion Chase at
Cheltenham about this horse, but he proved them wrong and greatly increased his
rapidly growing set of devoted fans. He is, it would have to be said, a likely
winner today, with the soft ground only narrowing down the field more. 1/3,
though, isn’t a working man’s price and there is value to be found in the race
if we look further.
Second in the market is Special Tiara at 10/1, who has been
written off by many based on the fact that he “won’t like the ground”. I’m not
quite as sure that he won’t handle the soft ground at Sandown today, with one
place from one run on soft ground and a win from two runs on yielding. I would
expect and hope that this may be a closer race today than the market would
suggest and rather than backing Special Tiara without the favourite, with tiny
odds of 11/4, I’ll have an each-way bet at 10/1. Alternatively, you could bet
the reverse forecast.
Claret Cloak being a non-runner simplifies things a bit as
he could have been a contender to pick up the place spot, and Kauto Stone looks
underrated in this field – if one last run this season proves to be too much
for Sire De Grugy, the lightly raced Kauto Stone could take advantage. The
selections stand, though, as Sire De Grugy and Special Tiara.
Sire De Grugy 1/3
Special Tiara E/W
10/1
(Optional: Reverse Forecast Sire De Grugy & Special Tiara)
3.30 Ripon – 2m
Handicap
Bayan is a fantastic hurdler, who, despite only picking up
one flat win in the past, runs off a tiny mark today and it’s more than
understandable that he’s the favourite. He ran a great race last time at
Cheltenham in the Coral Cup to come 3rd. If flat wasn’t his thing
you could be sure that Gordon Elliott wouldn’t keep running him, but his
current rating of 81 in tiny compared to the mark of 142 he runs from over
hurdles. He carries a full stone less than top weight today and if he runs to
his hurdling form he could run a big race – this looks like one who may have
been very underestimated by the handicapper.
Bayan 11/4
3.40 Leicester –
Leicestershire Stakes
Unfortunately not on terrestrial television, this year’s renewal
of the listed Leicestershire Stakes looks to be an intriguing encounter between
the top few in the market. The favourite is Professor, which is understandable
considering how well he finished last year (running a decent race in a Group 3
at Goodwood) and how well he is known to begin seasons in the past. However, I
prefer to back him on faster ground than today and attention turns to another
horse.
Breton Rock got the season off to a good start on his
reappearance at Thirsk last time out and will be sharper than some of his
rivals today, an advantage which he can make full use of. This last win was
probably his best run ever and he should be able to manage the stiffer
competition today. He looks to be in the form of his life and could be one to
follow this season, beginning today. The other two at the top of the market
(favourite Professor and second-favourite Eton Forever) are the main threats,
but Breton Rock has a decent chance and represents the best value of the three.
Breton Rock 7/2
3.50 Sandown –
Bet365 Gold Cup
Trialing System
Selections
A soon-to-be trialling system (anyone who followed the blog
last year will remember we trialled systems for a while before actually keeping
a record of them – that way we can tweak and change them to see how the results
go). This one is brand new and fairly unpredictable, it would have to be said.
3.30 Ripon – Mubaraza 8/1
4.05 Ripon – Suegioo 14/1
4.35 Haydock – Well Shake Hands 12/1
8.50 Wolverhampton – Just Five 9/4
Scoop6
The Scoop6 pool is set to go above £4 million today. Here's out attempt at it:
Race 1: Saint Jerome
Race 2: Sir Reginald
Race 3: Doc Hay
Race 4: Dont Call Me
Race 5: Bayan
Race 6: Godsmejudge
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