Well, the morning has come and there’s nothing left to wait
for – we’ve done our 21-page comprehensive guide, and it’s time to reach a
final conclusion. What wins the King George?
Firstly, it’s important to say that the point of
the guide
is to present you with all of the information to pick your own winner. There’s
an awful lot of info and stats in there and everyone will inevitably take their
own meaning and, ultimately, bet from it. However, we wouldn’t quite be doing
our job if we didn’t give our final opinion in the race too.
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| Champagne Fever - a striking grey front runner |
Based on our guide, we have to eliminate Champagne Fever
first. Okay, he has fantastic form over hurdle and he’s stepping up to the
distance he was bred to run over for the first time. When you add to this the
fact that he was impressive when winning last time out and the fact that he’s
second in the market when the King George winner normally comes from the top
two, then he looks like a serious prospect. However, he just doesn’t fit the
usual profile for the race, nor does his own profile see any significant
positives for today, and it’s hard to see him win. He has been disappointing
over fences compared to his hurdle form as can often be the case with a Mullins
runner and we’re not going to be backing him today. He could be something
special, or could take an easy lead, but we’ll just have to hope he doesn’t
today because he does not look the most likely winner.
Strangely enough, Johns Spirit’s profile isn’t exactly
against the race, but we have to remember that he has never run in higher than
a Grade 3, and although he’s shown a bit of class and deserves his chance to
prove himself at the top level today, he will have a lot to prove. He’s also
probably better over a shorter trip. It’s tough to see him do it in such a
competitive King George field.
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| Cue Card - has he missed his chance? |
Cue Card it seems may have missed out on his chance last
year. Daryl Jacob has replaced Joe Tizzard and has been unplaced on Cue Card in
his two starts so far this season. He may have come on for the run last time
out but he didn’t manage to finish out this race last year, with Silviniaco
Conti grinding him down, and there’s no particular reason to see that form
reversed based on what has happened so far this term. The big question now is
whether he’s better over less than 3 miles – this may seem hypocritical coming
from me who claimed loudly last year after the King George that Cue Card would
have stayed had he run in the Gold Cup. However, I feel that at the time Cue
Card was at the very top of his form, whereas this year, he’s not the same
machine we saw, and the Ryanair should probably be the festival target rather
than the Gold Cup - of course, that will
change if he performs well today, but at the moment, that’s my opinion, and we
won’t be backing him today.
Wonderful Charm’s profile also doesn’t ooze positives,
unplaced in 2 starts over 3 miles or further, unplaced in 3 Grade 1 starts, and
a preference for left-handed tracks. He finished behind Wishfull Thinking 19
days ago in the Peteborourgh Chase – 1.7 lengths and two places behind him in fact,
while his only other form with other horses in this field are beating Double
Ross when the latter was brought down at Newton Abbott in October, and losing
to the same horse in last year’s JLT – Wonderful Cham was 5th, 7
lengths behind Double Ross in 3rd. In a competitive race, he doesn’t
look the most likely winner.
Double Ross is the rank outsider today and realistically has
a lot to find based on what we’ve seen of him. He managed 3rd in an
unusual Charlie Hall, behind Menorah and Taquin Du Seuil but ahead of what was
at the time an off-form Silviniaco Conti. After this, he unseated Sam
Twiston-Davies in the Betfair Chase. It’s doubtful that he’s going to reverse
all that form today and come out on top in a more competitive race.
So, after eliminating Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Wonderful
Charm, Double Ross and Johns spirit, we’ve halved the King George field and are
left with Al Ferof, Dynaste, Menorah, Silviniaco Conti and Wishfull Thinking –
and so the headache begins.
Al Ferof is a French-bred horse from the yard of Paul
Nicholls – a great start for any King George contender. The trends claim that
he’s the wrong age, should have course and distance form, and should have won
over 3 miles if he wants to win today. He has, however, placed in both of his
runs over 3 miles. We outlined that we want good to soft or softer, one of the
jockeys who have proven themselves on him, the month to be between November and
February, a right-handed track, and slight undulations for him. We’ve gotten
some of these and not others – it’s good to soft, good in places, so we’ve just
about gotten the ground we wanted. Sam Twiston-Davies has never ridden him in
the past. The month is December and the track is right-handed but flat – 3 of
the 5 things we mentioned.
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| Dynaste looks to redeem himself after a poor show in 2013 |
Dynaste showed nothing in this race last year. Also,
French-bred, and ridden by Tom Scudamore, one of our shortlist of King George
jockeys, he only misses out in the trends by supposedly being the wrong age (the
weakest of the included trends). We outlined in his profile that we wanted good
or good to soft, C O’Farrell or Tom Scudamore on board, a field of 1-7 runners,
between 0 and 30 or 121+ days off before the race, and a left-handed track. We
also mentioned that 2 of the 3 times he finished outside of the places were in
December. The going today seems perfect for him, and Tom Scudamore is on board.
However, there are 10 runners in the field, it has been 34 days since his last
run, and the track is right-handed. Furthermore, the month is December, so the
conditions don’t seem perfect for Dynaste, with only 2 of the 6 things we
mentioned suiting. He finished 3rd, 10 lengths behind Silviniaco
Conti and 8 behind Menorah when last seen in the Betfair Chase – most of the
runners that day had already had a start this season, while Dynaste ran for the
first time since April. The ground was soft, so Dynaste probably would have
wanted it to be slightly better, while the winner would have loved the ground.
Menorah is Irish-bred, so we don’t want soft or heavy ground
(which we don’t have) and we do want 10 or more runners (which we do have). He’s
a resident of Philip Hobbs’ yard, one of the trainers on our shortlist, and the
trends say that the only problems are being the wrong age to win and not having
finished in the top 2 over course and distance (he was pulled up in his only
C&D run but won his 3 other starts at Kempton). In his profile, we said we
wanted good to soft ground, Richard Johnson or P W Mullins, a field of 12 or
more, a break of less than 30 or more than 90 days before the race, the race to
be run in December, January or February, and a flat track or one with slight
undulations. He’s got the ground, TJ O’Brien rides him, there are only 10
horses in the field, he has had 34 days since his last run, the race is in
December and the track is flat. Therefore, we’ve gotten 3 of the 6 things we
mentioned.
Silviniaco Conti is French-bred, from the yard of Paul
Nicholls – like Al Ferof, this is the perfect start. According to the trends,
his age is the only problem. In his profile we outlined that we wanted soft
ground, Noel Fehily, Daryl Jacob or Mr R Mahon, a field of 8-11 runners, 30 or
less days off or more than a year off before the run, the race to be in the
last 3 months in the year, a flat track and cheekpieces. He hasn’t gotten his
preferred ground, Noel Fehily does ride, there are 10 runners, it has been 34
days since his last run, the race is in December on a flat track and he wears
cheekpieces. Therefore, we got 5 of the 7 things we mentioned.
Finally, Wishfull Thinking is British-bred which should in
theory mean that we immediately eliminate him, but Philip Hobbs has a decent
record in the race and 2 of the 3 British-bred horses to make the frame in the
last 10 years were ridden by Barry Geraghty, as Wishfull Thinking is. The
trends suggest problems – the wrong age, a lack of course and distance form, no
wins over 3 miles or further, and too many chase starts. His profile says we
want soft ground, Mr G Hawkins, Richard Johnson or Darren O’Dwyer, a Grade 2
race, the race to be in December and a right-handed track. The ground is better
than he’d want, Geraghty rides, the race is Grade 1 in December on a
right-handed track. So, we’ve gotten 2 of the 5 things we mentioned.
If we were to continue to eliminate runners in the same way
as we were at the start, Wishfull Thinking would be the first one gone, leaving
us with Al Ferof, Dynaste, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti.
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| Silviniaco Conti outstayed Cue Card to win last year's King George |
The only thing stopping us from making Silviniaco Conti our
sole bet is the ground drying. We were praying for rain last night but
unfortunately it would not take a sudden cloudburst and a Christmas miracle to
see the ground the way we want it for Conti. Of course, Silviniaco Conti won’t
have any problems running on the conditions which are present at Kempton today
(currently good to soft, good in places), but more of a cut in the ground would
have both benefited him and troubled his opponents, with the drying ground
bringing a good few of the other 9 horses a bit closer to his standard.
Silviniaco Conti has serious stamina, as he displayed beautifully
last year when outstaying an admittedly slowed Cue Card. Champagne Fever is a
striking front runner, and will certainly be up there today. The pace angle of
the race will be fascinating, but Conti has the ability to outstay any of these
over 3 miles on a flat track such as this one. The others all represent value,
as we feel that the market has gotten it wrong with Champagne Fever at prices
as short as 9/2 and also Cue Card, Pricewised as short as 5/1 with Paddy Power.
Al Ferof is shortening by the minute and could be a big steamer as the day goes
on but he can still be gotten at 13/2 with some firms. Menorah is also
shortening into 7/1, but 15/2 is easy to find still, while Dynaste is 8/1 at
the moment.
With little to find between these three, I wouldn’t put you
off an each-way bet on any of them, but it’s hard to pick any one of them to
select, and so we’re sticking with the current champion, the favourite, the
great Silviniaco Conti to add his name to the roll of honour and win his second
King George VI Chase.
As always, remember not to chase your losses and only bet
what you can comfortably afford to lose. Yet again, I’d encourage everyone to
read our guide, or at this stage even to just flick through the summary
sections and the profiles, as it will give you so much more information than we
possibly could in this post.
You can view or download it by clicking this link and then following the link on that page. And remember that the purpose of the guide is to
allow you to pick your own bet in the King George – let us know who you’ve
selected on Twitter @TheParadeRing (
www.twitter.com/TheParadeRing).
A very merry Christmas to our followers and readers and a happy and prosperous
New Year. Finally, the very best of luck to you on what is the busiest day of
racing in the UK and Ireland – let’s make it a great day for us and a bad one
for the bookies!
1st
Silviniaco Conti 7/2
2nd Menorah 15/2
3rd Dynaste 8/1
SELECTION: SILVINIACO
CONTI 7/2
UPDATE: WITH MENORAH OUT TO 8/1, WE'RE HAVING A SAVER BET - JUST COVER YOUR STAKE ON SILVINIACO CONTI
