Wednesday, 25 February 2015

Geoff Banks Exclusive Interview

Firstly, what does the festival mean to you as a bookmaker and as a racing fan?
The festival is the principal betting event of the year with its competitive racing and small fields. Even though I’m a bookie – it’s as enjoyable for me to attend as any other racegoer. Form of horses in evidence through the preceding national hunt season is often meaningless at Cheltenham.

As a bookie, could you tell us about your biggest or most memorable wins and losses at the festival?
 I can’t discuss specifics. Suffice to say many wagers involve five figure sums and there’s plenty of lively betting and opinions.

Your father was a very well-known bookmaker said to be years ahead of his time in terms of promotion. What lessons of the trade did you learn from him?
I learned the value of looking after punters as customers and treating them with the respect they deserve. Many modern day bookmakers view punters as ‘fodder’ – poor business plan.

What favourites worry you the most at the festival this year?
Un De Sceaux because the Arkle cuts up so badly and has become meaningless. Some Arkle winners have come out subsequently and been moderate – it shows the lack of enterprise in certain connections.

As a fan, have you got any fancies of your own so far?
I don’t head to the festival fancying horses or studying form. It’s a pure betting experience for me.

Has there been anything to report in the ante post markets with your customers so far? Any general market support or any individual big ante post bets?
Most ante post markets are quiet – Mullins being able to send 20+ horses to one race and multiple targets have reduced most markets to a nonsense. We can’t formulate markets until we have reasonably firm entries.

Obviously the retirement of AP McCoy will dominate the headlines as we approach the end of the season. Could you give a few words on McCoy?
McCoy is most certainly greatest jump jockey of the modern era. It’s nonsense to say others are better. Records speak for themselves. He’s retiring at the peak of his career , it appears knee jerk to me. It’s of course acceptable to retire as you feel your powers on the wane, but not after riding fastest 200 winners in a season – and with Jonjo O’Neill apparently incapable of training horses. The retirement of McCoy is a huge blow to a struggling code.

What other factors do you find tend to affect people’s betting habits more than they should, and what should be focused on more when considering what to back?
Too much focus on betting exchanges from bookmakers and punters alike. Always look for value- even if it’s an exchange negative. With such poor liquidity in evidence and nobody laying horses these days other than BOTS, punters need to get back to old fashion form at the best meetings. The lesser meetings – particularly the all-weather – are rife with crooked activity and should be avoided as a medium. Except if you’ve nothing better to do.

Who in your opinion are the best or most underrated jockeys over jumps and on the flat? Likewise, who are the best or most underrated trainers? As a bookie, are there any yards which you fear runners from more than others?
"Geraghty is outstanding - he made Henderson what he is today,
at least in part."
Geraghty is outstanding – he made Henderson what he is today, at least in part. His talent is still under rated in my view. I fear Nicholls because he works his horses, as he should, and his consistency is admirable.

People hear the bookmakers complaining regularly about having a losing day after a few favourites come in, but most punters are still dubious about how often the bookmakers actually make a loss. How much of the time would you say the bookmaker tends to come out on top?
On track – and if you’re not trading every penny back on exchanges – the bookmaker is 2/1 to win these days, so many adverse factors – betting to exchange odds is patently unprofitable. Off track most firms have turned to other products to make money. Hence the festival will be characterised by amazing offers and deals which guarantee a loss in many races – this never used to be so. But other products such as machines and football have taken over.

You’ve been fairly outspoken in the past about the current state of both bookmaking and racing. Could you outline what the main issues are in the industries?
Racing has to man up to its issues and stop heading the advice of vested interest. Field sizes are decimated, trainers have far too many opportunities particularly at the graded end of the sport, people are no longer racing midweek, Channel 4 struggles for viewers when it’s fed a diet of 5 runner events, most racing is sponsored by betting, TV networks such as ATR and RUK and the Racing Post are totally ruled by reliance on betting as advertisers.

What steps would you take to improve racing for the connections, the punters, the bookmakers?

I would cut the programme by a quarter. I would dissolve the current structure of the BHA which has proved ineffectual and weak in addressing racing’s issues. We need a strong and totally independent governing body to manage the sport, to include the racetracks. Every decision should be based on what’s best for racing and not a racetrack, owner, trainer or bettor.

To see the rest of our Cheltenham interviews, features and guides, follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing

Exclusive Harry Fry Interview

Firstly, your success considering your age is just incredible. Could you tell us a bit about how you started out training and what you feel has brought about such massive and immediate success?
"We were extremely lucky to start out with a horse of [Rock On
Ruby's] calibre"
From a young age I had my heart set on being a jockey but Richard Barber whom I used to ride out for as a schoolboy used to tell me that my hands and feet were too big – he was right! I rode point to points for a few seasons but suffered a number of injuries that made it very hard for me to control my weight. After a very short spell at Circencester university (4 days), Richard encouraged me to join Paul Nicholls as pupil assistant. I was very lucky to be part of a great team at Ditcheat for four years during the Denman/Kauto era. Paul and Clifford were very good to me and I learned a lot there. During the summer of 2010 I moved back down to Seaborough to assist Richard with the running of the satellite yard where in 2012 we prepared Rock On Ruby for the Champion Hurdle. After this Ciara and I had a chat and decided it was now or never, bit the bullet and went out on our own. We were extremely lucky to start out with a horse of Ruby’s calibre, not many people are as fortunate as us and we will forever be indebted to Richard Barber for giving us the chance to train from his yard.  Our very loyal owners stuck with us during this transition and  therefore we were not technically starting from scratch as we knew our horses and had a routine in place.

What does the Cheltenham festival mean to you and what does it take to win there? From a more technical perspective, what’s different about the track and what does a horse need to do to win there?
The festival is the Olympics as far as I'm concerned, it’s the cup final and where every owner wants  to go. I think in every sport there has to be a final, and in racing it’s Cheltenham. Winning at the festival is better than winning 50 mid-week races - for that week in March each year, the eyes of the racing public are firmly fixed on Cheltenham and there is no better way to market your yard. It takes a very good horse to win there, they need speed & balance for the blistering gallop around a sharp undulating track and stamina to get up the hill.

Jollys Cracked It, Thomas Brown and Bitofapuzzle are all entered in multiple races at this stage. Could you give us any idea as to which races you might be leaning towards for them?
"Thomas Brown in the Albert Bartlett unless the ground turns
soft in which case he will run in the Neptune"
At the moment the plan would be to run Jolly's Cracked It in the Martin Pipe, Thomas Brown in the Albert Bartlett unless the ground turns up soft in which case he will run in the Neptune and Bitofapuzzle runs this weekend at Doncaster in the 3m listed mares novice hurdle.

Rock On Ruby was very impressive at Aintree at the end of last season, what would the plan be for him if he doesn’t get the World Hurdle trip? Could this be his last festival?
There is one thing for sure and that is that Ruby will try his heart out, he stayed in the Neptune and the Relkeel on soft ground so if the ground on the day is good I think he will stay; he is a class horse. He still thinks he is a 4 year old so we will let him tell us when he has had enough.

Jollyallan seems to have a serious engine, is he still a bit green? How would you rate his chances in the Supreme, hopefully on better ground? Could you comment on his opposition?
Jollyallan: "it's a long way from his brain to his legs"
JollyAllan is a very good horse but unfortunately it’s a long way from his brain to his legs and he hasn't been the sharpest hurdler thus far, we have done a phenomenal amount of schooling and grid work but we are hoping that on better ground and with a faster pace he should be seen to better effect. It is a very competitive race but certainly Douvan has looked very impressive and sets the standard.

That was a very nice run from the front from Thomas Brown on New Year’s Day – how much of an advantage will the course form be to him, would he be ridden with similar tactics in a race of a higher class at the festival?
We were very pleased with his run that day, he had to battle all the way to the line, it is always a bonus to have course form as it’s another box ticked before the big day. Whatever he does over hurdles will be a bonus before he goes chasing next year. We don't have to make it as I'm sure there will be plenty of pace, but we will leave that up to Noel.

Finally, what did you make of Fletchers Flyer’s performance last time out and what do you think of his chances at the festival?
Fletchers Flyer "may by-pass [Cheltenham] and go to either
Aintree or Punchestown
He is not a certainty to go to the festival just yet, if the ground turns up good, we may by-pass and go to either Aintree or Punchestown. I was happy with his run at Haydock, he did miss 2 or 3 hurdles but I think it was he was just a bit lonely having had to do all the donkey work in front. He has come out of that race very well and if he goes to the festival he will run a solid race.

Any plans or thoughts yet as to which of your horses will be going chasing next season and which will stay over hurdles?
Fletchers Flyer, JollyAllan and Thomas Brown will, touch wood, all go chasing.

Could you give one tip for the festival and one horse to watch for next season?

Faugheen! As for a horse to follow, we have a couple of nice youngsters that may have one run in bumpers this season and will then be put away until next year, but so far there are 2 or 3 nice ones that will hopefully live up to our expectations.

To see the rest of our Cheltenham interviews, features & guides, follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing

Monday, 23 February 2015

Barry Geraghty - Cheltenham's 2 Mile King

Across racing, certain jockeys perform better at some tracks or in some conditions – like horses, they have experience, they have preferences, they have different styles suited to different surroundings. During the warm summer months on the flat, punters follow Richard Hughes around the sharp turns and severe undulations of Goodwood – he’s considered an expert at guiding horses through the many unexpected obstacles the Sussex track has to offer.

Jumps racing is no different, and although many jockeys have got good records at Cheltenham, one statistic stands out above the rest. 7 of the Cheltenham festival’s 27 races are run over approximately 2 miles, including some of the most prestigious Grade 1 events the racing calendar has to offer in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase and the Arkle Chase.
Geraghty won the 2014 Champion Hurdle on Jezki (2m 1/2f)

In the last 10 years, Barry Geraghty has ridden in all of these races, and won most of them at some stage – Champion Chase winner in 2005 and 2010, Arkle winner in 2009 – but it’s in the last 5 festivals that Geraghty has shone over 2m. His form over this trip at the festival since winning with Big Zeb in the 2010 Champion Chase reads 2211116P. His unprecedented success over 2 miles at the festival (16 runners, 7 wins and 3 places – 44% wins and 63% win/place) stands out like a sore thumb when we look through the stats, yet is it a solid record?

At the 2012 and 2013 festivals, all four of his mounts over this trip won, making a massive contribution towards his good record. However, these horses were Sprinter Sacre (twice), Simonsig and Finians Rainbow – 3 of the 4 were odds-on. You could argue on this basis that any jockey worth his salt would have a strong record over this trip at the festival had they been riding such horses.
For this reason, I want to delve deeper into this to see whether or not Geraghty really is worth following over 2 miles at this year’s festival.

Geraghty's first festival winner was
Moscow Flyer over 2m.
Firstly, the man himself: The County Meath-man rode his first winner in 1997 and had his first festival success on-board Moscow Flyer (over 2 miles) in the 2002 Arkle. His win strike rates for the calendar year ranged from 9%-19% for the first 11 years of his career before hitting 21% in 2009, and  since then they’ve only dropped below the 20 mark once, when 19% of his horses won in the 2012 calendar year. 2014 was his best season yet in this regard, with 24% of his 496 rides winning, so he really seems to be at his best. Since his first Cheltenham victory back in 2002, he’s had at least one winner at the festival each year.

In his career, he has enjoyed successes at Cheltenham but it hasn’t been among his top tracks – 22 wins from 51 rides at Huntingdon since the beginning of 2005 must be the most notable – yet he is one of the most respected jockeys at this track, having ridden 31 festival winners in his career.

As for the trip, he certainly loves riding over 2 miles. If we include races run over 2m ½f just for the purposes of this particular section, we’ll see 1,817 rides, and 378 wins giving him a 21% win strike rate. Furthermore, a total of 822 made the frame, giving him a win/place strike rate of 45%.

This is impressive in itself, but just wait until we get to Cheltenham! Looking back over just 5 years at the  track (since the beginning of the 2010 calendar year) his record over exactly 2 miles here is 9 wins and 3 places from 19 runners (47% wins, 63% win/places). Sure enough, this record holds strong when we extend it back to the start of the 2005 calendar year, with 12 wins and a further 4 places from 26 runners (46% wins, 62% win/place).

So, it would seem that when we extend the data to look at not just the festival but all races at the track, the stats stay just as strong, if not stronger, and confirm to us that Barry Geraghty is the man to have your money on over 2 miles at Cheltenham.

Saturday, 21 February 2015

Gordon Elliott Exclusive Interview

We’ll begin with Clarcam – entered in both the Arkle and the Queen Mother, has a final decision been made? Was there temptation to stay away from the Arkle because of Un De Sceaux and can you see Clarcam reversing that Irish Arkle form?
He’s going for the Arkle – there was no temptation to stay away, that’s racing, but it would be very hard to see Clarcam reverse the Irish Arkle form if Un De Sceaux stands up.

Clarcam finished behind Un De Sceaux in the Irish Arkle
Don Cossack’s entered in the Ryanair,  Queen Mother & Gold Cup – will it be the Ryanair and how do you view his chances in the race?
He’s going for the Ryanair he has a great chance, he’s in the form of his life. The only comment on the opposition is that it looks very competitive.

Would you rate No More Heroes most highly among your novice hurdlers this year? How disappointed were you with his run at Leopardstown last time out? Is he heading for the Albert Bartlett?
Yes, I rate him most highly. We were disappointed but also relieved when he scoped badly after Leopardstown as it gave an explanation for the poor performance. He’s going for the Albert Bartlett.

Who in your view are some of the most underrated jockeys on the National Hunt scene?
Davy Condon and Jason Maguire

If you could train any one horse from outside your stable, what horse would it be? Likewise, if your top horses were to be trained by any other trainer in the UK or Ireland, who would you pick? 
The horse I’d most like to train would be Un De Sceaux and if I had to choose another trainer it would be David Pipe

Tiger Roll is entered in both the Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle – how would you rate his chances in each of these races?
It’s doubtful he will run in either at the moment.

Any of your horses which seem to be going unnoticed heading towards the festival? Noble Endeavor


One tip for the festival and one horse to follow for next season? Noble Endevor would be my tip for the festival and Whistle Dixie to follow next season.

Follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to see the rest of our exclusive interviews, features and guides in the build-up to the Cheltenham Festival.

"Tip for the festival" Noble Endeavour is currently 25/1 for the Coral Cup and 16/1 for the Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle with Bet365. If you don't already have an account, open one here to avail of their special offers and free bets in the run-up to and throughout the Cheltenham festival!

Friday, 20 February 2015

BetBright Chase Trends Analysis

The BetBright Chase attracts 16 runners, meaning four each-way places for the eager punters waiting to analyse the race in hunt of value. Our trends analysis has thrown up many nice results in similar race on the flat, and we decided to bring it back before the beginning of the flat season to try it out on a few races over jumps.

The first three sections will focus on place last time out, age and market position – we’ve added in age as an extra section as we analyse the starting stalls on the flat. Also, while we used to look back over 15-16 years, we’re now keeping it down to 12 years to focus on the most relevant data.

1. Place Last Time Out

Place LTO
Runners
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
First
39
7
18%
6
15%
13
33%
Second
23
1
4%
5
22%
6
26%
Third
18
1
6%
3
17%
4
22%
Fourth
15
0
0%
5
33%
5
33%
Fifth
13
2
15%
1
8%
3
23%
Sixth
8
0
0%
1
13%
1
13%
Seventh
13
1
8%
1
8%
2
15%
Eighth
3
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Ninth
3
0
0%
1
33%
1
33%
Tenth
2
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Eleventh
4
0
0%
1
25%
1
25%
Thirteenth
2
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Fourteenth
2
0
0%
1
50%
1
50%
Fell
3
0
0%
1
33%
1
33%
Pulled Up
15
0
0%
1
7%
1
7%
Slipped Up
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Unseated Rider
2
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%

So, based on the data above, we’re looking out for horses which finished in the top 2, 4th, 5th, 9th or 11th or fell last time out.

2. Age

Age
Runners
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
6
8
0
0%
2
25%
2
25%
7
31
2
6%
6
19%
8
26%
8
43
5
12%
9
21%
14
33%
9
36
2
6%
4
11%
6
17%
10
29
1
3%
4
14%
5
17%
11
12
1
8%
0
0%
1
8%
12
5
1
20%
1
20%
2
40%
13
2
0
0%
1
50%
1
50%

Based on this, we’re focusing on 6-8yos and on 12-13yos.

3. Market Position

Mrkt Pos
Runners
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
13
2
15%
3
23%
5
38%
2
13
2
15%
6
46%
8
62%
3
10
1
10%
1
10%
2
20%
4
19
3
16%
6
32%
9
47%
5
10
0
0%
1
10%
1
10%
6
12
2
17%
0
0%
2
17%
7
14
1
7%
3
21%
4
29%
8
12
0
0%
3
25%
3
25%
9
11
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
10
12
0
0%
2
17%
2
17%
11
7
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
12
10
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
13
7
1
14%
1
14%
2
29%
14
5
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
15
5
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
16
2
0
0%
1
50%
1
50%

We’ll keep an eye on the top 2, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 16th in the market.

Recent Form

4. 9 of the last 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases
5. 7 of the last 10 winners had won over 3 miles or further.
6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a class 2 race or higher.
7. 9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track.

The Big Table

Now, which of this year’s runners fit these trends?
Horse
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
Rajdhani Express
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
4
Rocky Creek
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
4
Fox Appeal
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Le Reve
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Godsmejudge
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
4
The Rainbow Hunter
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
3
Easter Day
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
6
What A Warrior
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
4
Lost Legend
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
4
Bally Legend
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
3
Ardkilly Witness
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
3
Renard
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
2
Chartreux
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
4
Tenor Nivernais
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
5
Ballinvarrig
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Tap Night
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
3

So, our shortlist:
1.       Fox Appeal 7/1, Le Reve 9/1 – 7
2.       Easter Day 9/2, Ballinvarrig 14/1 – 6
3.       Tenor Nivernais 14/1 – 5

And our bets:
0.5pts e/w on Fox Appeal @ 7/1
0.5pts e/w on Le Reve @ 9/1