Irish Grand National In-Depth Analysis

Our method of analysis for the Aintree Grand National was fairly successful – of our final 4 bets, two horses managed to make the frame. It was unfortunate in one sense, as the eventual winner was the final horse to be eliminated when forming our final 4 bets, a decision mainly taken based on price (we already had two horses included towards the top of the market). While this may be disappointing, it is in another sense encouraging and gives us more confident in our analysis method.

With this in mind, we’re going to move on to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday and have a look at the Irish Grand National from a similar perspective. In short, we outline a number of key trends for the race, put all of this year’s runners past the trends and form a shortlist of the horses which fit a reasonable number of trends. After this, we eliminate runners based firstly on trends (if applicable) and then based on individual horse profiles, until we come to our bets in the race.

So, the trends:

1. 8 of the last 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8
2. 8 of the last 10 winners were 1^st or 2^nd season chasers
3. 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred. These horses made up 77% of the total field, but made up 90% of the total wins and 84% of the total places (including wins), so we would have to think that they have overachieved. Of the 6 horses to have made the frame, 4 were French-bred 6- or 7-year-olds, so we’re looking for an Irish-bred horse or a French-bred 6yo or 7yo
4. 9 of the last 10 winners have carried 10-6 or less
5. 9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 128 to 137
6. 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 50 days
7. 10 of the last 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8. 9 of the last 10 winners either finished in the top 4 on their last chase start or were unplaced at the Cheltenham festival last time out
9. 9 of the last 10 winners posted a Racing Post Rating of 131+ on their last completed chase start
10. 8 of the last 10 winners had posted a Racing Post Rating of 135+ that season
11. 9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track
12. 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 3m+
13. 9 of the last 10 winners had run in 4-12 chases
14. 10 of the last 10 winners had won 1-4 chases
15. 9 of the last 10 winners had run in 0-7 handicap chases
16. 9 of the last 10 winners had won 0-2 handicap chases
17. 7 of the last 10 winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Punchestown or Clonmel (these were all Irish-trained, the other three were British-trained)

However, having taken a closer look, I reckon that a couple of these are particularly week (or just not very relevant this year) due to the competitive nature of this year’s race. If we take a closer look at trend number 5 (regarding official ratings), we find that in the last 10 years, an average of 65% of runners fit this trend. There has never been a race in the last 10 years in which less than half of the runners fit the trend. However, barely any of this year’s runners fit the trend, and this looks like a trend just waiting to be broken.

The trend regarding weight (number 4) is a similar case – on average 68% of runners have fit the trend in the past, whereas less than a third of this year’s runners do – again, it looks like a trend waiting to be broken this year.

For that reason, I’m leaving both of those trends out of the table – we will have to consider how the horses are handicapped ourselves later on.

So, let’s see how this year’s runners fit the trends (in the table below “Y” means Yes, ie, the runner does fit the trend, while “N” is No, ie, the runner doesn’t fit the trend. The total is the total number of trends fit).

Horse

1

2

3

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Total

Lord Scoundrel

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

N

10

Noble Endeavor

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

14

Clarcam

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

9

Our Duke

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

11

Foxrock

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

11

Roi Des Francs

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

13

The Game Changer

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

11

Tell Us More

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

13

Alpha Des Obeaux

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

14

Wounded Warrior

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

10

Minella Foru

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

10

Thunder And Roses

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

10

Baie Des Iles

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

13

Fletchers Flyer

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

13

Tiger Roll

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

14

Shutthefrontdoor

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

10

Measureofmydreams

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

13

Raz De Maree

N

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

N

7

Haymount

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

14

Stellar Notion

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

8

Rogue Angel

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

9

Arbre De Vie

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

11

Dedigout

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

12

General Principle

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

14

Bonny Kate

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

13

First Lieutenant

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

9

Sambremont

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

13

Abolitionist

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

10

Bless The Wings

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

N

Y

9

Another Hero

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

14

Mystical Knight

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

11

Oscar Knight

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

13

So, here’s how the long-list looks based on trends:

1. Another Hero (Reserve), General Principle, Haymount, Tiger Roll, Alpha Des Obeaux, Noble Endeavor – 14
2. Oscar Knight, Sambremont, Bonny Kate, Measureofmydreams, Fletchers Flyer, Baie Des Iles (Non-Runner), Tell Us More (Non-Runner), Roi Des Francs – 13
3. Dedigout – 12

There are 15 horses here – half the field – which we are going to look at in closer detail. First, however, I want to take a quick look at the horses which narrowly missed out (those which scored 11 on trends), check which trends they missed out on and decide whether they deserve to be looked at in closer detail.

Excluded 11’s

Our Duke fails based on the fact that he hasn’t been seen in 64 days, he has only run in 3 chases, hasn’t yet won a chase at a right-handed track and therefore has never won a chase at Fairyhouse, Punchestown or Clonmel. I’m also happy to exclude this horse based on his short price.

Foxrock fails primarily due to his age – he’s 9 years old, a fourth season chaser, and has run in and won too many chases based on trends. The majority of the reasons to exclude the horse, therefore, are based on one simple factor – his age. For this reason, I’m going to keep him in contention for now.

The Game Changer fails based on his bad run last time out, the fact that he has never run over this sort of trip and the fact that he has run in and won too many chases. I’m happy to exclude him based on trends, particularly considering the fact that his staying ability is questionable.

Arbre De Vie fails based on a lack of chasing success at right-handed tracks, a lack of success over a longer trip and a lack of chase wins. Realistically, most of this comes down to the fact that he has never won a chase and for that reason we could argue against his exclusion, but he has also finished outside the places on both starts over 3m or further so I’m going to exclude him.

Mystical Knight is a reserve and probably doesn’t run. So, we’re left with the original long list, plus Foxrock.

Profiles

Another Hero

• Reserve

General Principle

• 13 starts – 4 wins – 4 places
• Unplaced on sole start at Fairyhouse – 6^th in a grade 2 2m novice hurdle at this meeting in 2016
• Seems to prefer soft ground – 9-4-2 on soft or worse, 4-0-2 on yielding to soft or better
• Furthest he has run over is 3m (1-1-0), which is encouraging in terms of staying
• Bryan Cooper rides today and has a decent record on him (9-3-2), D J Mullins the other one to note (2-1-1)
• Possibly prefers smaller fields, in which all of his wins have come (8-4-1 in fields of 11 or less) but a decent place record in bigger fields (5-0-3 in fields of 12 or more)
• All of his success has come at the end of the season (9-4-1 in February and March compared to 4-0-3 earlier on)
• Probably has a preference for right-handed tracks (8-3-3 compared to 5-1-1 going left-handed)
• Seems to prefer more undulating courses (9-3-3 on more undulating tracks compared to 4-1-1 on flat tracks and those described as having slight undulations)

There are a couple of worries in the profile – a preference for softer ground, smaller fields and undulating courses – and it’s the first of these which could be the main worry today. In terms of trends, he does very well.

Haymount

• 13 starts – 3 wins – 7 places
• Unplaced on sole start at Fairyhouse – 4^th in a grade 2 2m 4f novice hurdle in 2016
• Seems to prefer softer ground – 8-2-6 on soft or worse compared to 5-1-1 on better ground
• Hasn’t won over further than 2m 4f but a place over 4m on his last start suggests that staying shouldn’t be much of an issue
• Ruby Walsh (6-2-4) and Patrick Mullins (3-1-2) have the best records on him. Walsh rides today
• No real preferences to be seen in terms of field size, but big fields shouldn’t be an issue (4-0-3 in fields of 16 or more runners)
• No real preference to be seen in terms of his break before running
• Finishes the season well (5-2-1 in March and April) but also runs well earlier in the year
• No preferences to be seen in terms of the track

A consistent enough performer, it’s hard to see too many patterns in his profile, but a preference for softer ground would be a worry. However, everything looks fairly good.

Tiger Roll

• 25 starts – 7 wins – 4 places
• Never ran at Fairyhouse before
• Versatile in terms of ground and it’s hard to find any preference
• A win over 4m at last month’s Cheltenham festival confirms that staying won’t be a problem
• The main record to note in terms of jockeys is Jack Kennedy (3-2-1). Donagh Meyler rides today (2-1-0)
• 8-2-1 in grade 1’s means that he’s up to this class
• 8-4-0 in fields of 12 or more is a positive (although 17-3-4 in fields of 11 or less is also a decent record). However, 4-1-0 in fields of 16 or more isn’t overly encouraging, so it’s hard to know what to make of this particular variable.
• Seems to run particularly well after a break (4-2-2 after over 90 days off the track). He has been unplaced on all 4 starts when back out within 2 weeks of his last run, but 16-4-2 when back out after a break of between 16 and 60 days isn’t too bad.
• He has a strong record in March (4-2-1) but this goes downhill in April and May (5-1-0)
• Possible preference for more undulating tracks, but it’s hard to tell

The fact that he doesn’t run too well at the end of the season is a slight worry but other than that his profile is full of positives.

Alpha Des Obeaux

• 17 starts – 4 wins – 8 places
• 2-1-0 at Fairyhouse – 2^nd in a the Hattons Grace Hurdle in 2015, 3^rd in the Drinmore Novice Chase in 2016
• Possible preference for better ground (6-2-3 on good to yielding or better, 8-1-4 on good to soft or worse). However, he actually has a very strong record of 3-1-2 on heavy ground
• He has never run over further than 3m½f, but is 6-1-4 over 3m (2-0-0 over 3m ½f) and that place record probably does suggest that we shouldn’t worry too much in terms of stamina
• David Mullins has the best record on him (2-2-0) and rides today
• Possibly prefers smaller fields (13-4-6 in fields of 11 or less, 4-0-2 in fields of 12 or more)
• Needs a recent run. Running after a break of 30 days or less is ideal (9-4-3), but 31-60 days is okay – 3-0-3. 4-0-1 after a longer break.
• He does tend to run better towards the beginning of the season (6-3-2 in October and November, 6-1-3 in December and January, 5-0-3 from March to May).
• Definite preference for right-handed tracks (11-4-6 compared to 6-0-2 at left-handed tracks)
• 1-1-0 with cheekpieces and 1-0-1 with a hood (he wears a hood today)

A possible preference for smaller fields and a better record earlier on in the season are the main issues here.

Noble Endeavor

• 20 starts – 5 wins – 7 places
• Unplaced on both starts at Fairyhouse – 4^th in a maiden hurdle in 2014, 5^th in a grade 2 2m 4f hurdle in 2015
• Definitely seems to prefer softer ground – 10-4-4 on soft or worse, 10-1-3 on yielding to soft or better
• 1-1-0 over 3m½f, 2-0-1 over 3m 1f and 4-0-0 over 4m
• Davy Russell rides him today and has a very good place record on him (5-1-4).
• Doesn’t seem to like very small fields (3-0-1 in fields of 1-7), 17-5-6 in bigger fields than that.
• Needs a relatively recent run – 14-5-4 when back out within 60 days, 5-0-3 after a longer break
• Seems to peak around half-way through the season (5-3-1 in December, 4-2-1 in January and February) and tails off later on (4-0-2 in March, 2-0-0 in April)

The preference for softer ground is a worry, as has been a case for a lot of these, and he also seems to peak early in the season.

Oscar Knight

• 22 starts – 3 wins – 6 places
• 4-0-2 at Fairyhouse – 2^nd in a maiden hurdle in 2015, 4^th in a novices handicap hurdle in 2015, 6^th in a beginners chase in 2016, 5^th in a handicap chase in 2016
• Hard to see strong preferences in terms of going but he is 3-0-0 with on good to yielding and has never run on better ground
• The furthest he has won over is 2m 4f and he’s 9-0-4 over further.
• 1-1-0 with Mark Enright, who rides him today
• He seems to like big fields (14-2-5 in fields of 12 or more, 8-1-1 in fields of 11 or less)
• Runs well after a short break (13-2-4 when back out within 30 days, 8-1-2 after a longer break)

His profile isn’t bad but it’s hard to make any excuses when looking at his lack of success over longer trips and for that reason he has to be excluded.

Sambremont

• 15 starts – 3 wins – 5 places
• 1-1-0 at Fairyhouse – won a beginners’ chase here in January 2016
• Seems to prefer soft ground (9-3-4 on soft or worse, 6-0-1 on yielding to soft or better)
• The furthest he has won over is 2m 5½f (7-0-2 over 3m or further)
• 7-3-2 with Ruby Walsh on board,  2-0-2 with Danny Mullins, who rides today
• Definite preference for smaller fields (7-3-3 in fields of 11 or less, 8-0-2 in fields of 12 or more)
• Particularly strong record when back out within 30 days of his last start (4-2-1). 8-1-2 after a break of 31-60 days, 2-0-1 after longer
• Runs well for the first half of the season (9-3-3 from November to February) but the season tends to tail off (6-0-2 from March to May)
• Preference for right-handed tracks seems likely (9-2-4 compared to 6-1-1 going left-handed)

According to Sambremont’s profile, he has a lot of negatives to overcome – a preference for softer ground, a question mark over his staying ability and a bad record in the second half of the season.

Bonny Kate

• 18 starts – 6 wins – 5 places
• 3-1-0 at Fairyhouse – pulled up in a mares novice hurdle in 2015, won a beginners’ chase in 2015, pulled up in this race last year
• Looks to have a preference for softer ground (12-5-3 on soft or worse, 6-1-2 on yielding to soft or better). 2-0-1 on yielding and good.
• The longest trip she has run over is 3m 5f when pulled up in this race last year, but 2-1-1 over 3m 4f is encouraging.
• No strong records in terms of jockeys – Sean Flanagan rides today and has a decent record of 10-3-4 on her.
• Seems to particularly like small fields (6-4-1 in fields of 11 or less, 12-2-4 in fields of 12 or more)
• No real preferences in terms of how long her break has been before running – strong record of 9-3-3 when back out within 15 days, similarly strong 4-2-1 after over 60 days off the track
• A strong record of 5-3-0 in March but a less encouraging 2-0-0 in April
• Definite preference for right-handed tracks (12-6-2 compared to 6-0-3 going left-handed)
• Prefers more undulating tracks (11-5-3 compared to 7-1-2 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations)

The preference for soft ground and small fields of two issues here which look like fairly strong statistics to overcome.

Measureofmydreams

• 17 starts – 5 wins – 3 places
• 1-0-1 at Fairyhouse – 2^nd in a bumper at this meeting in 2014
• Excels on very testing ground – 7-5-1 on ground with “heavy” in the going description, 6-0-1 on better ground
• 3-1-0 over 3m but 6-0-1 over further
• Ruby Walsh (3-2-0) and Patrick Mullins (3-1-2) have strong records on him. D Robinson rides him for the first time today
• Poor record in large fields (8-0-1 in fields of 16 runners or more). 9-5-2 in fields of 15 or less
• Unplaced on sole start when back out within 2 weeks of his last run (he ran just 9 days ago) but a strong record of 5-2-1 when back out after a break of between 16 and 30 days.
• Stronger record slightly earlier in the season, deteriorates as the season continues (4-2-1 in January, 2-1-0 in February, 4-1-1 in March, 4-0-1 in April)

There are plenty of doubts here, including a preference for soft ground and a very poor record in big fields. He also hasn’t got a good record at this time of year.

Fletchers Flyer

• 13 starts – 4 wins – 5 places
• Never ran at Fairyhouse before
• Versatile in terms of ground – 2-1-1 on heavy, 3-2-0 on good to yielding
• Definite stayer (won over 3m 6f)
• No strong records in terms of jockeys – Noel Fehily has ridden him on 10 of his 13 starts, with a record of 10-1-5
• He does seem to like big fields (2-2-0 in fields of 16 or more) but also has strong records in smaller fields
• A recent run seems fairly essential (6-3-2 when back out within 60 days of his last start, 6-1-2 after a longer break)
• Finishes the season well (3-2-0 in April)
• Preference for right-handed tracks (9-4-2, compared to 4-0-3 going left-handed)

There are no negatives here, and he seems almost perfectly suited to the race

Roi Des Francs

• 21 starts – 6 wins – 5 places
• 2-1-0 at Fairyhouse – won a beginners’ chase in 2015, 4^th in  the Bobbyjo Chase this year
• Seems to have a real preference for soft ground (13-5-4 on yielding to soft or worse, 8-1-1 on yielding or better)
• 1-1-0 over 3m 2f, 2-0-0 over further
• Bryan Cooper (6-4-1) and Patrick Mullins (2-1-1) have the best records on him. Brian O’Connell rides him today for the first time
• He doesn’t seem to like big fields (5-0-1 in fields of 16 or more, 16-6-4 in fields of 15 or less)
• He has a very poor record at the end of the season (6-0-1 in April and May compared to 11-5-2 from December to March)
• No preferences to be seen in the length of the break before running or the type of track

There are a couple of negatives here – the preference for softer ground and the bad record in big fields – and no major positives.

Dedigout

• 27 starts – 10 wins – 4 places
• 7-2-3 at Fairyhouse – won a handicap hurdle in 2012, 2^nd in the Drinmore Novice Chase in 2012, 2^nd in the Powers Gold Cup (now the Ryanair Gold Cup) in 2013, 5^th in the Hattons Grace Hurdle in 2015, won a grade 2 hurdle in 2015, 3^rd in the same race in 2016, 5^th in the Hattons Grace Hurdle in 2016
• He seems to prefer softer ground – 3-0-1 on ground with “good” in the going description, 9-3-2 on yielding to soft or better and 18-7-2 on soft or worse.
• 4-1-0 over 3m and 2-0-0 over further. 3m 2f is the furthest he has run over
• Bryan Cooper (6-2-1), Davy Russell (13-7-2) and Paul Carberry (1-1-0) are the records worth noting. C Brassil rides him for the first time today, claiming 5lb.
• 5-0-0 since moving to Gordon Elliott’s yard from Tony Martin
• Doesn’t seem to mind big fields (2-1-1 in fields of 16 or more)
• Runs well at the end of the season (4-3-0 in April, 3 of these starts were at this meeting as described above)
• Definite preference for right-handed tracks (15-6-4 compared to 12-4-0 going left-handed)

There are some positives here but, as seems to be the case with a lot of this year’s runners, soft ground would be preferable. The rest of his profile isn’t awful but his form is questionable.

Foxrock

• 27 starts – 9 wins – 6 places
• 1-1-0 at Fairyhouse – won a beginners chase here in 2013
• Softer ground seems preferable (21-8-4 on yielding to soft or worse compared to 6-1-2 on good to soft or better)
• 2-1-0 over 3m 1f, 1-0-0 over 4m
• Danny Mullins (7-4-2) and Katie Walsh (5-4-0) are the strong records. Denis O’Regan rides today (2-0-0)
• Big fields aren’t an issue (4-2-2 in fields of 15 or more), nor are they a necessity (9-4-0 in fields of 7 or less)
• A more recent run would probably be preferable (18-8-5 when back out within 30 days, 8-1-1 after a longer break)
• Seems to peak just before the end of the season (9-5-3 in January and February, 4-2-0 in March, 2-0-0 in April)
• Probably prefers right-handed tracks (9-4-2 compared to 18-5-4 going left-handed)

Again, he seems to have a preference for softer ground, while a different jockey might be preferable. He also tends to peak slightly earlier in the season. While his profile isn’t terrible, there are some better ones.

Elimination

Firstly, I’m going to get rid of any horses with stamina issues. While this may not be the same test in terms of jumping as the Aintree National, it is a 3m 5f chase and to be a serious contender a horse will need to stay. Sambremont and Measureofmydreams have both failed to excel over longer trips, and won’t be considered for that reason. Slightly more reluctantly, I’m excluding Oscar Knight and Dedigout, even though the latter’s profile is very strong for a 125/1 shot.

Next, there is one obstacle which a large number of runners need to overcome and that is a preference for softer ground. If we were to exclude the horses which have previously failed to show the same form on better ground as they have on a softer surface, that would take a number from the list – General Principle, Haymount, Noble Endeavor, Bonny Kate, Roi Des Francs and Foxrock. In doing this, I'm assuming that the ground is proper good to yielding ground and hasn't been over-watered. The hurdles course yesterday seemed more like yielding to soft than good to yielding, and if the same has been done to the chase course for today, this could be the downfall of the analysis. Therefore, we have to hope that the good ground horses haven't been watered out of contention and that the ground remains reasonably quick (good ground with a slight cut underfoot).

This leaves us with Tiger Roll, Alpha De Obeaux and Fletchers Flyer.

Fletchers Flyer fails on just two trends. He’s a 9yo, and they haven’t got a particularly strong record in the race. 55 have run in the last 10 years and none have won, with 7 making the frame. That’s 18% of the places from 20% of the total field (not a huge underperformance but an underperformance nonetheless). However, the majority of the 9yos to have run in the past had a lot more starts than Fletchers Flyer under their belts (41 of the 55 9yos had had at least 15 career starts, while he has only run 13 times to date). In that sense, his profile is more similar to that of a 7 or 7yo. The other trend he fails is not having run in the last 50 days. He did, however, run just 58 days ago, and has a strong record of 2 wins and a place from 3 starts having been off the track for 30-60 days. His profile is flawless and I think that 12/1 is a very fair price.

Alpha Des Obeaux fails on just one trend – not having won a chase at Fairyhouse, Punchestown or Clonmel. This isn’t one that I’d get too caught up on, and it’s worth remembering that he has strong records at two of these tracks (23 at Fairyhouse, 1223 at Punchestown, never ran at Clonmel). He apparently had an issue at Cheltenham which excuses his 4^th place finish behind good horses. His profile is more suited to today’s  race than it was to the RSA, with the only slight worries being a poorer record in larger fields and at the end of the season. Still, his April starts haven’t been bad (beaten in a grade 1 at Punchestown last year and fell when about to finish 2^nd to Thistlecrack at Aintree in 2015). This was one of his starts in large fields (16 runners) and was arguable quite a strong performance). 25/1 is a nice price for him today.

Finally, Tiger Roll put in a fantastic performance at Cheltenham and only fails on the same trend as Alpha Des Obeaux. He has actually never run in a chase at any of those tracks. His profile is mainly positive, although he has a poor record at the end of the season (he finished the season badly in 2014 and 2015 at Punchestown, although it could be argued that he simply doesn’t like the track, having also run badly there in 2016 before winning a month later at Ballinrobe). While larger fields may also be an issue, his two Cheltenham festival wins came in fields of 15 and 18, and I’m willing to overlook that considering the 22/1 available.

There are a couple of firms paying out on 6 places and they would be obviously be the best places to bet (although you may prefer to get 5 places and one quarter of the odds rather than 6 places and one fifth). Unfortunately, the National is the first chase of the day so we won't get the chance to observe another race on the track to see how much watering has taken place before placing out bets. However, this also means that we won't have another field of horses cutting up the ground before the race takes place.

This will be the last big-race preview from us until the flat season is well underway in June. The very best of luck, enjoy the racing and only bet what you can afford to lose.

BETS:

FLETCHERS FLYER E/W 12/1

ALPHA DES OBEAUX E/W 25/1

TIGER ROLL E/W 22/1