Grand National 2017 - The Analysis

The day has arrived and it’s time for the greatest steeplechase in the world, the Merseyside Marathon, the race that stops a nation (or two). The Grand National.

Earlier on in the week, we tipped up one particular 100/1 shot, and anybody who read that article will be familiar with the method used in terms of trends. For those who haven’t seen it, or for those who’d like a quick refresher…

I use over 20 trends to look at the race, and have sorted them into certain groups. It’s important that we look at the trends in this order as some horses may fail on a couple of trends for a single reason and we need to try to spot these cases – in other words, some trends may overlap, and this can skew a horse’s final score. So, here are the trends we use:

Trends

AGE

 1)     A) 10 of the last 10 winners were aged 8-11. These horses also filled 38 of the 40 places in the last 10 years. All 3 winners aged 8 in the last 10 years had finished in the first 5 in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season, so in theory we should be looking for a 9-11yo or an 8yo which finished in the top 5 in the 2016 Hennessy.

2)     8 of the last 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers. The 4th season chasers which have won the race tend to have had some outstanding form as novices or early in their chasing careers, but this is something we’ll look into at a later stage.

FITNESS

3)     10 of the last 10 winners had run since the National weights were announced, which this year was February 14th.

4)     10 of the last 10 winners had run between 3 and 6 times since September 1st.

RATINGS & WEIGHTS

5)     While 9 of the 10 winners from between 1999 and 2008 didn’t fit this trend, 8 of the last 8 winners were rated 143 or higher. This is a clear change in the race which now attracts classier horses, and these horses (OR 143+) have filled 27 of the 32 places in those 8 years.

6)     8 of the last 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight.

7)     8 of the last 10 winners had previously been rated at least 148 at some stage in their career.

8)     Again, we are looking for a classy type – 8 of the last 10 winners had won a chase worth at least 29k.

RACING POST RATINGS

9)     7 of the last 10 winners had achieved a Racing Post Rating of 146 or higher on their last chase start.

10)     9 of the last 10 winners had posted a Racing Post Rating of 147 or higher at a chase over 3 miles or further at a left-handed track.

11)     8 of the last 10 winners had posted a Racing Post Racing of 134 or higher in a chase over 3m 4f or further.

12)     10 of the last 10 winners posted their career high RPR in a chase over 3 miles or further.

13)     9 of the last 10 winners posted their career high RPR at a left-handed track.

CHASING EXPERIENCE

14)     10 of the last 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases.

15)     8 of the last 10 winners had won between 3 and 5 chases.

16)     8 of the last 10 winners had run in between 1 and 9 handicap chases.

17)     10 of the last 10 winners had won between 0 and 3 handicap chases.

18)     9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase over 3m or further.

MISCELLANEOUS

19)     7 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 on their last completed start.

20)     9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season.

21)     16 of the last 20 winners had fallen or unseated the rider no more than twice in their careers.

22)     Prep: Some ideal notes in terms of prep are:

                Finished in the top 3 in a past Welsh National

                Finished in the top 3 in a past Irish National

                Finished in the top 9 in the 2016 Scottish National

                Finished in the top 5 in a past Hennessy Gold Cup

                Ran in the Totepoolliveinfo.com Premier Chase or the Pertemps at Cheltenham last time out

The Big Table

So, this is the table which explains how every single 2017 Grand National runner performs in terms of each of the 22 trends:

Horse

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

Total

The Last Samuri

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

20

More Of That

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

15

Shantou Flyer

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

16

Perfect Candidate

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

15

Saphir Du Rheu

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

18

Roi Des Francs

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

17

Wounded Warrior

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

13

Wonderful Charm

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

16

Tenor Nivernais

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

16

Blaklion

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

21

Drop Out Joe

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

19

Le Mercurey

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

17

The Young Master

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

16

Cause Of Causes

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

20

Regal Encore

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

15

Vieux Lion Rouge

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

16

Definitly Red

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

17

Ucello Conti

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

15

Double Shuffle

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

15

Houblon Des Obeaux

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

20

Pleasant Company

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

15

One For Arthur

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

17

Ballynagour

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

14

O'Faolains Boy

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

17

Highland Lodge

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

14

Bishops Road

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

15

Lord Windermere

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

17

Saint Are

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

19

Vicente

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

19

Just A Par

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

20

Measureofmydreams

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

14

Raz De Maree

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

16

Stellar Notion

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

15

Rogue Angel

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

15

Cocktails At Dawn

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

13

Thunder And Roses

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

13

Gas Line Boy

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

14

Goodtoknow

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

15

La Vaticane

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

12

Doctor Harper

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

14

The Scores

So, in order of scores, the trends placings look like this:

1. Blaklion – 21
2. The Last Samuri, Cause Of Causes, Houblon Des Obeaux, Just A Par – 20
3. Drop Out Joe, Saint Are, Vicente – 19
4. Saphir Du Rheu – 18
5. Roi Des Francs, Le Mercurey, Definitly Red, One For Arthur, O’Faolains Boy, Lord Windermere – 17

The Longlist

We’re going to begin by eliminating anything that hasn’t made this shortlist. The lowest-placed horses on this list (those on 17) have missed out on 5 trends, and we’re making this the maximum number of “No’s” in the table in order to progress to the next stage. This will give us a list of horses with relatively accurate National profiles.

However, 15 is a lot to work with, and if possible I’d like to narrow it down even further. The obvious first port of call is the horses on 17. It’s worth noting that 4 of these 6 horses fail on the basis of age – Roi Des Francs, Definitly Red and One For Arthur are all 8yo’s (and don’t have the required Hennessy form), while  Le Mercurey is only 7.

However, as noted in the Drop Out Joe article, “the race is changing rapidly, and it’s worth noting that 15 of the 16 finishers in last year’s race were aged 9 or younger.” On that basis, the trend may be shifting towards younger horses being an 8yo may not be a massive disadvantage.

However, being a 7yo is more of a setback, and considering Le Mercurey’s poor form over trips of 3m+ (P3825, with the 3^rd place finish coming in a 6-runner race and the 2^nd coming in a 5-runner race), I’m going to eliminate him at this stage.

O’Faolains Boy is a 4^th-season chaser, and as we mentioned earlier, the 4^th-season chasers to have won in the last 10 years all had some outstanding form outside of novice company early on in their chasing careers. Numbersixvalverde won the Thyestes Chase and Irish Grand National as a novice, Pineau De Re won the Ulster Grand National as a novice, Many Clouds won the Hennessy Gold up on his 8th start over fences and Rule The World was 2nd in Irish National as a novice. O’Faolains Boy did win the RSA Chase, but that was undoubtedly his career highlight and he has failed to reproduce that kind of form outside of novice company. I’m going to remove him from contention now.

Lord Windermere is a 5^th-season chaser and an 11yo. As outlined above, last year’s result suggests that we’re now looking for younger horses than we were in the past and on this basis, I’m eliminating the 2014 Gold Cup winner at this stage.

And then there were 12. Now, we’re going to attempt to eliminate some and find the best betting opportunities by using profiles.

Profiles

Blaklion

• ·         21 starts – 8 wins – 6 places
• ·         Has run at Aintree twice and placed once – 3^rd of 8 in last year’s Mildmay Novices Chase and 4^th of 16 in the 2015 Sefton Novices Hurdle. Two solid runs, albeit not over the National fences.
• ·         He seems very versatile in terms of ground – he has 3 wins from 5 runs on good ground and 3 wins and a place from 5 wins on soft (2 wins and 5 places from 11 starts on anything in between).
• ·         He has won over 3m 1½f at Cheltenham, a definite test of stamina. He has one place from 2 starts over further (2^nd in Haydock’s Grand National Trial) and while his staying ability may not be as proven as some others, it’s not a major cause for concern.
• ·         Jockeys – Richard Hatch (11-4-7) and Sam Twiston-Davies (5-3-0) have the best records on him. Noel Fehily is on board today for the first time.
• ·         His record is definitely stronger in smaller fields – 17-8-5 in fields of 11 or less compared to 4-0-1 in fields of 12 or more. He has been unplaced on all 3 starts in fields of 16 or more. This is the first real worry in his profile.
• ·         In terms of preparation, everything appears to be perfect – he ran 49 days ago, and his record when back out after a break of between a month and 2 months is a solid 6-3-1.
• ·         Definitely likes flat tracks (6-3-2 compared to 15-5-4 on more undulating tracks).

Overall, everything looks good here. The only worry is his poor record in larger fields.

The Last Samuri

• ·         18 starts – 8 wins – 7 places
• ·         2 places from 3 starts at Aintree – 9^th in the 2014 Sefton Novices Hurdle, 2^nd in last year’s Grand National and 3^rd in the 2016 Becher Chase. Definitely strong course form over the National fences.
• ·         He possibly prefers softer ground – 8-5-3 on soft, 8-3-3 on good to soft and 2-0-1 on good. Some sort of a cut in the ground would have to be considered preferable.
• ·         His staying ability can’t be questioned. 4-2-2 over 3m 2f and a place over this trip means that he really should stay.
• ·         Jason Maguire, now retired, had a great record on this horse (7-4-2). David Bass rides today and also has a strong record (6-2-3).
• ·         His best record is actually in smaller fields (9-5-3 in fields of 1-7 runners). 6-3-2 in fields of 8-15, but 2 places from 3 starts in fields of 16 or more is still a very creditable record.
• ·         Needs a recent run (11-7-3 when back out within 60 days, 6-1-3 after a longer break) and ran just 35 days ago.

It’s hard to see very many patterns in The Last Samuri’s form as he has been a consistent performer over the last few years. Finishing 2^nd in the National obviously answers a lot of questions about suitability to the race, but we have to be critical and wonder whether he does enjoy larger fields and, perhaps more significantly, whether he was more suited to last year’s race which was run on soft ground.

Cause Of Causes

• ·         38 starts – 8 wins – 9 places
• ·         Unplaced on sole start at Aintree, but it was a creditable 8^th place finish in this race in 2015 at the unideal age of 7.
• ·         While he has performed well on soft ground in the past, his preference must be a sounder surface (10-4-4 on good is undoubtedly the stand-out record).
• ·         A win over 4m means that his staying ability certainly can’t be questioned.
• ·         Jockeys – Davy Condon (9-4-2) and Jamie Codd (4-3-0) hold the best records. Codd rides today.
• ·         No real preference to be seen between bigger and smaller fields – 14-4-2 in fields of 11 runners or less compared to 24-4-7 in fields of 12 or more. His win rate may be better in smaller fields but his place rate in larger races makes up for this.
• ·         While the sample size after a longer break is smaller, he does seem to do better after a shorter break (31-7-8 when back out within 60 days of his last start, 6-1-1 after a longer break). He last ran 24 days ago.
• ·         He seems to peak in March more so than April – 7-3-3 in March compared to 3-0-0 in April and 2-1-0 in May. Does his season tail off after Cheltenham success?
• ·         No preference to be seen between left- and right-handed tracks.
• ·         He does seem to have a preference for more undulating tracks rather than flat ones. His record is 11-0-2 on flat tracks, compared to 27-8-7 on more undulating tracks.

Everything seems to be going well here until the last couple of points. Cause Of Causes’ season has included a very good performance at Cheltenham for each of the last 4 years. However, he hasn’t been able to replicate that form after the festival. In 2014, he was 2^nd in the Kim Muir, then 12^th in the Irish Grand National. In 2015, he won the 4-miler, then finished 8^th here. In 2016, he won the Kim Muir, then was pulled up in the Scottish National. This year, he won the Cross Country – will he be able to maintain that form? Also, his preference for more undulating tracks may be a slight worry. However, everything else is in his favour.

Houblon Des Obeaux

• ·         42 starts –  7 wins – 10 places
• ·         1 place from 4 starts at Aintree – 3^rd in the Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National meeting in 2011, 6^th in the Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle in 2012, 6^th in the Betfred Bowl in 2014 and pulled up in the Betfred Bowl in 2016.
• ·         Definite preference for at least some sort of cut in the ground. 8-0-1 on good ground compared to 14-4-2 on good to soft and 20-3-7 on softer.
• ·         He has never actually won from 18 starts over further than 3m, but has picked up 4 places, including one over 4m 1½f. He is a stayer in theory but the lack of winning form despite so many attempts may be a worry.
• ·         Aidan Coleman has the best record (31-7-7).
• ·         Preference is for smaller fields (20-6-5 in fields of 11 or less compared to 22-1-5 in fields of 12 or more).
• ·         Tends to peak earlier on in the season – 13-3-4 in January and February compared to 13-0-3 in March and April.

It’s hard to see any preferences in some other sections, but the patterns that I have found in his form really don’t point towards this race suiting. His Aintree form (although not always relevant in the National) is poor, he would rather the ground at least a little bit softer, he is yet to win over a longer trip, Charlie Deutsch rides instead of Coleman, he prefers smaller fields and peaks earlier on in the season – I think the verdict here is clear.

Just A Par

• ·         23 starts – 4 wins – 6 places
• ·         1 place from 4 starts at Aintree – 2^nd in the 2013 Sefton Novices Hurdle, 6^th in the 2014 Mildmay Novices Chase, pulled up in the 2014 Becher Chase and 15^th in last year’s Grand National.
• ·         A possible preference for softer ground (6-2-2 on soft or worse compared to 17-2-4 on good to soft or better).
• ·         A win over 3m 5½f is definitely encouraging in terms of staying ability.
• ·         Daryl Jacob (4-1-2) and Harry Cobden (3-1-1) would probably be the jockeys of choice. Cobden rides today.
• ·         A preference for smaller fields isn’t impossible, but if this is the case it’s certainly not a strong preference (9-2-3 in fields of 11 or less compared to 14-2-3 in fields of 12 or more).
• ·         Place records in particular would suggest that he peaks towards the end of the season (10-2-4 in March and April compared to 13-2-2 earlier on in the season).

There are really no strong preferences to be seen in this profile at all, but what can be seen isn’t hugely encouraging (nor is it hugely discouraging). The Aintree form isn’t great, particularly the starts over the National fences. The slight preferences for softer ground and smaller fields wouldn’t be ideal, but the data certainly isn’t rock solid.

Drop Out Joe

This profile is from the article we posted on this horse last weekend:

• ·         21 starts – 6 wins – 4 places
• ·         He has previously run once at Aintree, in a class 3m 1f handicap chase in May 2015. He finished 4th of 10 that day. While he didn’t manage to make the frame, it was a decent run and was close to a career best for him at the time. While course form doesn’t tend to be particularly relevant in the National, and this wasn’t over the National fences, a good run around Aintree can’t be a negative.
• ·         While some consider him to be a horse better suited to a sounder surface, the stats suggest that he’s versatile in terms of going, with strong records on both good ground (14-4-3) and soft ground (5-2-0). (1-0-1 on anything in between).
• ·         His last win over 3m 2f definitely showed some strong staying ability (3-1-1 over this trip). He has failed to shine over longer distances, unplaced on three starts over further (over 3m 3f, 3m 4½f and 4m½f).
• ·         Jockeys – Aidan Coleman has a decent record on him (3-2-0), as does Noel Fehily (9-3-1). Graham Watters has ridden him once, on his last start which he won impressively. Tom O’Brien rides him today for the first time.
• ·         He has come up short in graded company 3 times but has 2 wins from 2 starts in listed contests.
• ·         Identical records in big and small fields (13-3-2 in fields of 11 or less, 13-3-2 in fields of 12 or more) so the massive field isn’t a particular worry.
• ·         No clear preference to be seen between left- and right-handed tracks (13-3-4 and 8-3-0 respectively).
• ·         Also no clear preferences to be seen between flatter and more undulating tracks (15-3-4 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations, 6-3-0 on more undulating tracks).
• ·         Runs well after a break – 3-3-0 after over 120 days off, 17-3-4 after a shorter break.
• ·         Best record early in the season (8-6-0 between June and November, 12-0-4 later on in the season). This is the main negative I can spot through the profile, but I reckon it could be explained by the stat above. His average break before a run from June-November is 86 days, while his average break before a run from December-May is 43 days. We’ve just figured out that Drop Out Joe is at his best after a longer break, so it stands to reason that he would have a better record from June to November, when he is generally running after longer breaks. All three of his favoured runs after a break of over 120 days came between June and November, so it makes sense that he would have a better record early in the season and it’s not a worry for us here.

As we noted then, “the profile leaves us with no real negatives for the race – one potential issue is cancelled out by another strong positive. The profile hasn’t quite told us whether he’s going to stay the National trip, but has given us a strong argument as to why we shouldn’t be particularly worried about the long break before the race.”

Saint Are

• ·         37 starts – 4 wins – 9 places
• ·         11-2-4 at Aintree. Won the Sefton Novices Hurdle in 2011, 2^nd in a novices chase in October 2011, won the John Smiths Handicap Chase in 2012, 9^th in the 2013 Grand National, 8^th in the 2013 Old Roan Chase, fell in the Betfred TV Handicap Chase in 2014, 3^rd in the 2014 Becher, 2^nd in the 2015 Grand National, 7^th in the 2015 Becher, pulled up in last year’s Grand National, fell in the 2016 Becher.
• ·         Possible preference for better ground, but worth noting his strong place rate on worse ground (16-3-2 and 13-1-4 on good to soft compared to 8-0-3 on anything worse).
• ·         Yet to win from 12 starts over 3m 2f+, but has picked up 4 places, including one at this trip, so he has to be called a stayer.
• ·         Paddy Brennan (8-2-3) and Richard Johnson (9-1-3) would the ideal jockeys. Davy Russell rides today for the first time.
• ·         Looks to have a preference for smaller fields – 20-3-7 in fields of 15 or less compared to 17-1-2 in fields of 16 or more. While the fact that he has been runner-up in a National may contradict this, it still has to be a question mark to take note of.
• ·         Needs to have run in the last 90 days (29-4-9 compared to 7-0-1 after a longer break). His last run was 45 days ago.
• ·         His best month is actually February, when he has a record of 5-2-2. This drops to 4-0-1 in March and picks up slightly to 8-2-1 in April.

Like The Last Samuri, the fact that Saint Are finished 2^nd in a National says a lot about his suitability to the race. However, he does seem to peak slightly earlier in the season and his overall career form would suggest that he might prefer smaller fields. It’s also worth noting that Paddy Brennan was on board for his last two Nationals, whereas today he’s ridden by Davy Russell, who is certainly capable but not experienced with the horse. Still, it’s not the worst profile.

Vicente

• ·         19 starts – 6 wins – 2 places
• ·         Never ran at Aintree before.
• ·         Prefers a sound surface (13-6-0 on good to soft or better compared to 6-0-2 on soft or worse). It’s worth noting that his 13-6-0 includes 2-2-0 on good to firm, so really fast ground wouldn’t be an issue for him – not that that’s likely in a 21^st century National when equine safety in paramount.
• ·         A win over 4m means that there are no doubts about stamina.
• ·         Sam Twiston-Davies has partnered him to nearly all of his success (12-5-1). Brian Hughes rides him today for the first time.
• ·         He does have a preference for smaller fields (12-5-2 in fields of 11 runners or less compared to 7-1-0 in fields of 12 or more). This isn’t ideal.
• ·         He definitely seems to peak at the end of the season. His record from December to March is 8-1-1, and this improves quickly in April and May to 4-3-0.
• ·         While it’s a small sample size, he has a strong record on right-handed tracks (4-2-1 compared to 15-4-1 going left-handed).
• ·         He probably has a slight preference for flatter tracks (11-4-1 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations compared to 8-2-1 on more undulating tracks).

Almost all of the boxes are ticked here – it’s a fairly strong profile for a National horse, other than the issue with larger fields.

Saphir Du Rheu

• ·         26 starts – 9 wins – 5 places
• ·         1 win from 2 starts at Aintree. Won the Mildmay Novices Chase in 2015, and finished 6^th in the Betfred Bowl in 2016.
• ·         Prefers softer ground (14-4-2 on good to soft or better, 12-5-3 on soft or worse). His record on good ground (6-1-2) is possibly his worst (good to soft 8-3-0, soft 5-3-0, heavy 7-2-3).
• ·         Has won over 3m 1f which is encouraging in terms of stamina. Outside the places on 3 starts over further, but has never run over further than 3m 2½f.
• ·         Sam Twiston-Davies probably the best jockey to have (12-4-1). Twiston-Davies rides today.
• ·         Preference for smaller fields (13-6-1 in fields of 11 or less, 13-3-4 in fields of 12 or more). His win rate is worst in fields of 16 or more (5-1-2).
• ·         Runs particularly well when back out within 7 days (2 wins from 2) but any time within 60 days is generally fine (18-8-2 compared to 7-1-2 after a longer break). Last ran 22 days ago.
• ·         Tends to peak slightly early in the season than would be expected – his record from December to February reads 11-7-1, while his record in March and April is a less impressive 7-1-1).

This isn’t a very encouraging profile, with a preference for softer ground and smaller fields and a better record earlier on in the season – this particular information doesn’t give us much hope for his chances.

Roi Des Francs

• ·         20 starts – 6 wins – 5 places
• ·         Unplaced in both of 2 starts at Aintree. Pulled up in the 2015 Sefton Novices Hurdle and 6^th in the 2016 Mildmay Novices Chase.
• ·         Soft ground is ideal – 13-5-4 on yielding to soft or worse, 7-1-1 on good to soft or better. A very clear preference here.
• ·         A win over 3m 2f is encouraging in terms of staying ability. Unplaced on sole start over further, which was over 3m 4f.
• ·         Bryan Cooper holds by far the best record on him (6-4-1). Jack Kennedy rides today (3-0-1).
• ·         As seems to be the case with plenty of our shortlisted runners, small fields may be preferential. 4-2-1 is a particularly strong record in fields of 7 runners or less, and 16-6-4 is similarly strong in fields of 15 or less. However, this bears stark contrast to his record of 4-0-1 in fields of 16 or less, which leaves a bit to be desired.
• ·         His record in April (which of course ties in with his Aintree record) is poor (4-0-0). It’s possible that at this time of year he begins to feel the effect of a long season, with more success earlier on in the year (11-5-2 from December to March).

Like Saphir Du Rheu, this profile shows a lot more negatives than positives. Roi Des Francs would definitely prefer soft ground earlier in the year with Bryan Cooper on board in a smaller field. Under those circumstances, he would represent a solid betting opportunity. Under these circumstances, however, he doesn’t seem to. (For anyone who wants to take note, his record with Cooper on board in races with 15 or less runners on ground without good in the description between October and March is 4 wins and a place from 5 starts).

Definitly Red

• ·         19 starts – 10 wins – 5 places
• ·         Never ran at Aintree.
• ·         Although unplaced on his sole start on good ground, it’s hard to spot a preference in terms of conditions underfoot as he hasn’t really run much on sounder surfaces. On the evidence available to us, he’s fairly versatile (4-3-0 on good to soft, 10-5-3 on soft, 4-2-2 on heavy).
• ·         He has won over 3m 2f, so stamina isn’t a major worry. He never really got a chance over longer trips, having fallen on his sole start over further (although he wasn’t running particularly well at the time) in the 4-miler at the 2016 Cheltenham festival.
• ·         Danny Cook (6-4-2) and Richard Johnson (4-2-1) are the jockeys with the best records on him. Cook rides today.
• ·         Yet again, annoyingly, a preference for smaller fields is evident. His record in fields of 11 or less is 14-10-4, which is extremely different to his 5-0-1 in fields of 12 or more. This looks to be a very strong preference.
• ·         He has won on his sole start in April, but his record towards the end of the season in general isn’t as strong as earlier on (5-2-0 in March and April compared to 9-5-2 from December to March). However, this could be a case of him not liking Cheltenham, the location of 3 of his 4 March starts).

It’s hard to spot very many preferences in his form as he really seems to run well in all conditions – except, of course, in large fields.

One For Arthur

• ·         18 starts – 6 wins – 4 places
• ·         Unplaced on both Aintree starts. Pulled up in the Sefton Novices Hurdle in 2015 and 5^th in the 2016 Becher.
• ·         Slight preference for softer ground (8-2-2 on good to soft or better, 10-4-2 on soft or worse).
• ·         Won on sole start over 3m 5f and has never run over further so staying definitely shouldn’t be an issue.
• ·         Jockeys: He has only even been ridden by two jockeys; Peter Buchanan (15-4-4) and Derek Fox (3-2-0). Fox rides today.
• ·         Slight preference for smaller fields (13-5-3 in fields of 11 or less, 5-1-1 in fields of 12 or more).
• ·         Strong start to the season with a record of 3-2-1 in October. This falls to 4-0-0 in November and December, before picking up again (9-4-3 from January to March) and dropping in April (2-0-0).
• ·         Prefers flatter tracks (14-6-3  on flatter tracks and those with slight undulations compared to 4-0-1 on more undulating tracks.

There are some high points and some low points here – he should stay, has a good record with Derek Fox on board and prefers flatter tracks – but seems to prefer softer ground and smaller fields.

 

Narrowing The Field

Having eliminated Le Mercurey, O’Faolains Boy and Lord Windermere, we were left with twelve profiles to study. Having looked at these, we can do some more eliminating before taking a look at what’s left.

For the reasons outlined in his profile, Houblon Des Obeaux will be the next to go. Saphir Du Rheu and Roi Des Francs also have profiles which suggest that we should leave them alone today.

These are the only horses whose profiles have been extremely negative. This leaves us with 9 horses which seem to be in with strong chances. The first I would like to address is The Last Samuri. In terms of both trends and profile, almost everything makes sense for him. However, we’ve seen that he prefers softer ground and this would suggest that his chance to win a National must have been last year, when the ground was soft and he carried over a stone less than he is this time around. For that reason, he’s the next horse I’m going to knock off the list.

Saint Are has a relatively good profile, but there are a few negatives. He tends to peak earlier on in the season, prefers smaller fields and had the advantage of having Paddy Brennan on board on his last two runs in the National. In terms of the trends, he has fallen or unseated far too many times and is now a 6^th season chaser. His price will shorten drastically before the race as he has been tipped up by Pricewise and he can’t be a bet for me.

While we’ve seen plenty of preferences for smaller fields among this year’s National runners, Definitly Red’s is the strongest and is a worry. His record in fields of 12 or more reads 7P2FU, and this is hardly encouraging for a horse about to take its place in a field of 40. He does fit the bill almost completely other than that, and must go into the race with a good chance, but I can’t justify backing him at 10/1, so he has to be out of the list.

On that basis, Vicente will have to go too, with form in fields of 12 or more reading 051F669, compared to 421P12F11314 in smaller fields. Again, it’s not overly encouraging considering the size of the National field.

The Final Four

Blaklion comes out on top on trends, failing only on prep, while his profile is almost perfect aside from the question mark over large fields. He’s a bet for me even if it’s not the biggest price. The only worry is his physical size considering the mammoth task that Aintree poses in terms of jumping. However, given the modifications to the fences over the last few years, this wouldn’t be as much of a worry now as it was in the past and I think that Blaklion goes into this with a big chance. 16/1 this morning is a very fair price.

Cause Of Causes does have a few question marks over him. However, recent comments from Gordon Elliott that this horse had only been trained for one race are certainly encouraging for those of us who worry about his ability to reproduce strong form following the Cheltenham festival. Again, he’s not the biggest price at 14/1, but it seems like a fair price for a horse who, on paper, has everything it takes to win.

Just A Par’s profile isn’t a hugely exciting read but it doesn’t contain any solid negatives, and from a trends point of view he fits the bill almost perfectly. He’s a much nicer price at up to 50/1.

Finally, we tipped Drop Out Joe last weekend at 100/1 and are happy to sit tight at that price, with 66/1 the best price currently available and 50’s, 40’s or even 33’s on offer with most firms.

So, our 2017 Grand National bets:

BLAKLION E/W 16/1

CAUSE OF CAUSES E/W 18/1

JUST A PAR E/W 50/1

DROP OUT JOE E/W 100/1 (ANTE POST)

*1/4 ODDS 6 PLACES (BETVICTOR, BETWAY)

As usual (and perhaps more than usual), the very best of luck – and remember only to bet what you can afford to lose. My hope would be that this analysis might come in useful both to those who want to follow well-researched tips and to those of you who are trying to figure out the race by yourself, regardless of whether you agree with the conclusions.

Either way, the best of luck and enjoy the National.