The Grand National is coming around again and, as ever, we’ll
be delving deep into past races, form and stats to attempt to uncover the value
in what is widely considered one of the toughest, if not the toughest betting
races of the year.
This has proven to be a successful strategy in the past, and
a particular high point of The Parade Ring’s coverage over the past few years
was undoubtedly Pineau De Re’s win
in 2014 at a nice price. We also had a place the previous year, albeit at a
relatively short 12/1. We drew a blank with three selections in 2015 but, although
we can’t claim to have selected the winner as such, Rule The World was a Saturday Stats selection at 50/1 last year.
We will be looking at the race comprehensively later on,
with a number of selections likely considering the prices we generally bet at
in the National. However, as a quick taster, I’m going to go through the
process we use by looking in detail at one particular horse – the 100/1 shot Drop Out Joe.
Trends
Firstly, we’re going to look at trends. I use over 20 trends
to look at the race, and have sorted them into certain groups. It’s important
that we look at the trends in this order as some horses may fail on a couple of
trends for a single reason and we need to try to spot these cases – in other
words, some trends may overlap, and this can skew a horse’s final score. So,
here are the trends we use:
Age
B) However, as we mentioned, the race is changing rapidly, and it’s worth
noting that 15 of the 16 finishers in last year’s race were aged 9 or younger.
On that basis, we could be looking for a horse under the age of 10 these days.
2) 8 of the last 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers. The 4th season chasers which have won the race tend to have had some outstanding form as novices or early in their chasing careers, but this is something we’ll look into at a later stage.
2) 8 of the last 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers. The 4th season chasers which have won the race tend to have had some outstanding form as novices or early in their chasing careers, but this is something we’ll look into at a later stage.
Drop Out Joe gets 2
out of 2 here, regardless of which age stat we’re using. He’s 9 years old and a
3rd season chaser.
Fitness
3) 10 of the last 10 winners had run since the National weights were announced, which this year was February 14th.4) 10 of the last 10 winners had run between 3 and 6 times since September 1st.
This is Drop Out Joe’s
main fault – he has been off the track since June 26th, 2016. This
is an issue we’ll address in greater detail later on.
Ratings & Weights
5) While 9 of the 10 winners from between 1999 and 2008 didn’t
fit this trend, 8 of the last 8 winners were rated 143 or higher. This is a
clear change in the race which now attracts classier horses, and these horses
(OR 143+) have filled 27 of the 32 places in those 8 years.
6) 8 of the last 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher
than the bottom weight.
7) 8 of the last 10 winners had previously been rated at least
148 at some stage in their career.
8) Again, we are looking for a classy type – 8 of the last 10
winners had won a chase worth at least 29k.
Drop Out Joe is rated
152. We don’t know the final field yet, but Drop Out Joe carries 11 stone and
it’s hard to imagine that anything will run carrying less than 10 stone. He
also fits number 7 based on his current rating, and has won chases worth 45k
and 34k.
Racing Post Ratings
9) 7 of the last 10 winners had achieved a Racing Post Rating
of 146 or higher on their last chase start.
10) 9 of the last 10 winners had posted a Racing Post Rating of
147 or higher at a chase over 3 miles or further at a left-handed track.
11) 8 of the last 10 winners had posted a Racing Post Racing of
134 or higher in a chase over 3m 4f or further.
12) 10 of the last 10 winners posted their career high RPR in a
chase over 3 miles or further.
13) 9 of the last 10 winners posted their career high RPR at a
left-handed track.
Drop Out Joe posted
155 on his last chase start. This also covers number 10 (it was over 3m 2f at
the left-handed track of Uttoxeter). He hasn’t yet posted an RPR of 134+ in a
chase over 3m 4f+. His career high RPR was his last start, so he fits numbers
12 and 13.
Chasing Experience
14) 10 of the last 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases.
15) 8 of the last 10 winners had won between 3 and 5 chases.
16) 8 of the last 10 winners had run in between 1 and 9 handicap
chases.
17) 10 of the last 10 winners had won between 0 and 3 handicap
chases.
18) 9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase over 3m or further.
Drop Out Joe has run
in 12 chases, won 4, ran in 9 handicap chases and won 3, and won his last chase
over 3m 2f – so he fits all of these trends.
Miscellaneous
19) 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 on their last
completed start.
20) 9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that
season.
21) 16 of the last 20 winners had fallen or unseated the rider
no more than twice in their careers.
22) Prep: Some ideal notes in terms of prep are:
Finished in the top 3 in a past Welsh National
Finished in the top 3 in a past Irish National
Finished in the top 9 in the 2016 Scottish National
Finished in the top 5 in a past Hennessy Gold Cup
Ran in the Totepoolliveinfo.com Premier Chase or the
Pertemps at Cheltenham last time out
Drop Out Joe finished
1st last time out and it was his only start this season. He has
never fallen or unseated. He also just about ticks a box on trends, having
finished 9th in last year’s Scottish National, just like Mon Mome
did before winning in 2009.
Profile
So, Drop Out Joe is
given a score of 19 out of 22 on the trends. That’s a total of 3 fails. However,
two of them fall into the category of fitness, so we have 2 questions to answer
– is he a stayer, and can he overcome the challenge of not having run in the
286 days before the race? Firstly, we’re going to have a look at his profile,
and check whether he seems particularly suited to the National based on
patterns in his own form.
- Overall Record: 21 starts – 6 wins – 4 places (all stats in this profile are in the format Runs-Wins-Places)
- He has previously run once at Aintree, in a class 3m 1f handicap chase in May 2015. He finished 4th of 10 that day. While he didn’t manage to make the frame, it was a decent run and was close to a career best for him at the time. While course form doesn’t tend to be particularly relevant in the National, and this wasn’t over the National fences, a good run around Aintree can’t be a negative.
- While some consider him to be a horse better suited to a sounder surface (it’s one theory as to why he’s been put away all winter), the stats suggest that he’s versatile in terms of going, with strong records on both good ground (14-4-3) and soft ground (5-2-0). (1-0-1 on anything in between).
- His last win over 3m 2f definitely showed some strong staying ability (3-1-1 over this trip). He has failed to shine over longer distances, unplaced on three starts over further (over 3m 3f, 3m 4½f and 4m½f). This is a question which we’ll look at in more detail later on.
- Jockeys – Aidan Coleman has a decent record on him (3-2-0), as does Noel Fehily (9-3-1). Graham Watters has ridden him once, on his last start which he won impressively. It's unclear at the moment who will be riding him in the National - although it won't be Fehily, who rides Blaklion.
- He has come up short in graded company 3 times but has 2 wins from 2 starts in listed contests.
- Identical records in big and small fields (13-3-2 in fields of 11 or less, 13-3-2 in fields of 12 or more) so the massive field isn’t a particular worry.
- No clear preference to be seen between left- and right-handed tracks (13-3-4 and 8-3-0 respectively).
- Also no clear preferences to be seen between flatter and more undulating tracks (15-3-4 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations, 6-3-0 on more undulating tracks).
- Runs well after a break – 3-3-0 after over 120 days off, 17-3-4 after a shorter break.
- Best record early in the season (8-6-0 between June and November, 12-0-4 later on in the season). This is the main negative I can spot through the profile, but I reckon it could be explained by the stat above. His average break before a run from June-November is 86 days, while his average break before a run from December-May is 43 days. We’ve just figured out that Drop Out Joe is at his best after a longer break, so it stands to reason that he would have a better record from June to November, when he is generally running after longer breaks. All three of his favoured runs after a break of over 120 days came between June and November, so it makes sense that he would have a better record early in the season and it’s not a worry for us here.
So, the profile leaves us with no real negatives for the
race – one potential issue is cancelled out by another strong positive. The
profile hasn’t quite told us whether he’s going to stay the National trip, but
has given us a strong argument as to why we shouldn’t be particularly worried
about the long break before the race.
We’ve looked at Drop
Out Joe’s chances both by looking at trends (in which he performs better
than the vast majority of runners) and his profile. We’re still left with two
questions to answer – will he stay, and is his strong record after a long break
enough to justify supporting him in a Grand National, despite the strong trends
which state that a horse needs a recent run? Let’s look at the latter first.
Race Fitness
For a start, I’ve looked back at horses running in the Grand
National after a break of over 120 days. In the past 10 years, 18 horses have
done so, none have won and 2 have managed to make the frame. However, how many
of them had records as strong as that of Drop
Out Joe after a break? In the table below, I’ve listed the horses to have
attempted the feat. “121+ Before National” shows what their record was after
breaks of over 120 days at the time that they ran in the National. “121+ Career”
shows what that record looked like at the end of their careers.
Year
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
Finished
|
121+
Before National
|
121+
Career
|
2007
|
Eurotrek
|
16/1
|
PU
|
3-2-0
|
5-2-1
|
2007
|
Longshanks
|
14/1
|
7th
|
4-2-0
|
5-2-0
|
2007
|
Bothar
Na Na
|
20/1
|
PU
|
1-0-0
|
5-0-2
|
2009
|
Zabenz
|
100/1
|
F
|
2-0-2
|
3-0-2
|
2009
|
Eurotrek
|
80/1
|
PU
|
4-2-0
|
5-2-1
|
2010
|
State Of Play
|
16/1
|
3rd
|
6-3-1
|
9-3-3
|
2010
|
Irish
Raptor
|
33/1
|
F
|
4-1-1
|
6-1-1
|
2011
|
State Of Play
|
28/1
|
4th
|
7-3-2
|
9-3-3
|
2011
|
Or Noir
De Somoza
|
50/1
|
F
|
0-0-0
|
2-0-0
|
2011
|
Backstage
|
16/1
|
10th
|
3-0-1
|
5-0-1
|
2012
|
State Of Play
|
40/1
|
UR
|
8-3-3
|
9-3-3
|
2012
|
Arbor
Supreme
|
100/1
|
UR
|
5-1-0
|
7-1-0
|
2012
|
West End
Rocker
|
16/1
|
F
|
4-1-1
|
8-2-3
|
2013
|
Balthazar King
|
16/1
|
15th
|
5-4-1
|
10-6-1
|
2013
|
Lost
Glory
|
50/1
|
PU
|
3-1-0
|
4-1-0
|
2015
|
Balthazar King
|
17/2
|
F
|
8-6-1
|
10-6-1
|
2015
|
Court By
Surprise
|
33/1
|
PU
|
4-1-2
|
7-1-3
|
2015
|
Shutthefrontdoor
|
6/1
|
5th
|
3-2-0
|
6-2-0
|
Highlighted in the above list are the horses which had a
stronger record after a break over 121 when running in the National. These were
selected very unscientifically and it’s dangerous to make judgements like this
in hindsight, but it’s fair enough to say that these records would have stood
out at the time. It’s also worth noting that note of these, except for Balthazar King, boast records quite as
impressive as Drop Out Joe’s 3 wins
from 3 starts.
These lay-off specialists’ runs in the National gave the following
results: 16/1 PU; 14/1 7th; 80/1 PU; 16/1 3rd; 28/1 4th;
40/1 UR; 16/1 15th; 17/2 F; and 6/1 5th. P7P34U0F5 isn’t
a particularly bad line for a set of Grand National horses – in fact, these
horses took up 6% of the top 5 places from just 2.29% of the total field. As is
often the case with data, it can be looked at from many angles, but we could
actually make a case here that these lay-off specialists overachieved in the
race when coming into the National following long breaks.
Balthazar King’s
story argues the opposite. He’s the clear specialist in the table above, but
contested the National three times – twice after a long lay-off, and once after
a break of just 24 days. It was after this short break that he managed to finish
2nd in 2014. However, we can never expect the results to be exact
and there are always going to be exceptions. We should also bear in mind that
we don’t know how well he might have run in 2015, when he was travelling nicely
when he fell at the 8th fence – it was too early in the race to make
any claims about his chances or lack thereof.
Seeing 3 of the 9 lay-off specialists in the last 10 years
managing to make the frame certainly gives confidence and, with that in mind, I’m
not overly worried about Drop Out Joe’s failure
to meet the trends regarding a recent start.
Staying Ability
Another question remains: will Drop Out Joe stay the trip? National winners in the past 10 years
have either produced a certain level of form over 3m 4f+ or hadn’t run over
such a long trip. Drop Out Joe, on
the other hand, has run over a longer trip than 3m 4f, and hasn’t run
particularly impressively.
However, when watching race footage of Drop Out Joe, any punter will claim that he’s crying out for a
longer trip and looks a natural stayer. It’s also worth noting that he has
never run over a longer trip after his preferred long lay-off. Two races over
3m 4f+ is a very low sample size and it’s hard to fault a horse on this, based
on the fact that he finished 9th in a Scottish National and ran
poorly in a Bet365 Gold Cup. Each race was Drop
Out Joe’s 5th start in that particular season, hardly ideal for
a horse which we think needs a rest between runs.
While this may be a slightly bigger question mark than the
lay-off, it’s not a massive cause for concern.
Other Notes
One other positive and one other negative which I think I
should include:
Firstly, it’s nice to note how well the form from Drop Out Joe’s last win is working out.
Pacha Du Polder, who was 7 lengths
behind in 3rd, has won 2 of his 3 subsequent starts, including the
Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Gas Line Boy has also won since, while Menorah has placed in both subsequent starts, both grade 2’s. All
of this bodes well for Drop Out Joe’s chances.
However, there are some question marks over his jumping and
he has been known to make the occasional bad mistake. The Aintree fences are a
truly unique test and it’s very hard to know how a horse will take to them. Drop Out Joe has never fallen or
unseated his rider in the past and it’s almost impossible to tell how well he’ll
jump in the National, but a couple of past blunders could be potential worries.
Value
As always, one factor stands out above the rest. While I’m
not arguing that Drop Out Joe should
be the Grand National favourite, he is worth a bet because he should be a
shorter price than the 100/1 currently available. At the time of writing, 6
firms are currently offering those odds but BetVictor are definitely the best
option of the 6, with ¼ of the odds and 6 places. That’s 12/1 on your stake if
he manages to finish in the top 6.
SELECTION: DROP OUT
JOE E/W 100/1 (6 PLACES)
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