The Ryanair Gold Cup (previously known as the Powers Gold
Cup) tends to attract a small but often talented field, and this year should be
no different with just 7 horses left in the race at this stage but JLT winner Yorkhill among them.
This will be an unusual route for the exciting novice chaser
as Mullins very rarely brings a Cheltenham winner to Fairyhouse, preferring to
keep them for Punchestown (or occasionally bring them to Aintree). Strongly
fancied to be a future Gold Cup horse, Yorkhill
will be a strong, potentially overwhelming favourite for this contest.
However, he’s a quirky horse, was beaten at Punchestown last
season (albeit having taken in the Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree on his way
there) and if Cheltenham has confirmed anything to the punter, it’s that these
races with short-priced talented favourites aren’t foregone conclusions.
Therefore, I’m going to look at this race in the same way as any other big race
– by outlining some key trends, putting this year’s runners past them and then
working on profiles to come up with conclusions.
Trends
- 10 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won on one or both of their last 2 completed starts
- 10 of the last 10 winners had their last run in the last 60 days
- 10 of the last 10 winners had won 1-5 times over fences
- 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 2m 4f+
- 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their chase debut (both exceptions fell)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won a graded chase
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won a National Hunt race worth 13k+
- 10 of the last 10 winners had their first start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race
- 8 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 127+ over hurdles (2 others finished in the top 4 in a grade 2 hurdle but had no hurdles rating)
- 9 of the last 10 winners posted an RPR of 138+ last time out (the last 6 posted an RPR of 150+)
- 8 of the last 10 winners posted an RPR of 129+ on their first start over fences
- 7 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 in a class 1 hurdle
So, the table below shows how this year’s runners fit the
trends. The first column is their age and the second their country of origin.
The third deals with whether or not they ran at Cheltenham (we’ll look at the
reason for that later). After that, each number corresponds with the a trend on
the list above. For trend number 11, I’m only giving a “Yes” to horses which
posted an RPR of 150+ last time out, like the last 6 winners did. “N*” in a box
shows that the horse doesn’t fit that trend, but did post an RPR of 138+. “Y”
is “Yes”, ie, the runner fits the trend, while “N” is no.
Horse
|
Age
|
Origin
|
Chelt
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
Total
|
Anibale
Fly
|
7
|
FR
|
No
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
11
|
Attribution
|
7
|
GB
|
No
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N*
|
N
|
Y
|
9
|
Baily
Cloud
|
7
|
IRE
|
Yes
|
N
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
8
|
Ball
D'Arc
|
6
|
FR
|
No
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
12
|
Road To
Respect
|
6
|
IRE
|
Yes
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
13
|
Some
Plan
|
9
|
IRE
|
Yes
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N*
|
Y
|
Y
|
10
|
Yorkhill
|
7
|
IRE
|
Yes
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
13
|
So, our shortlist (or long-list) based on trends is:
- Road To Respect, Yorkhill – 13
- Ball D’Arc – 12
- Anibale Fly – 11
- Some Plan – 10
With such a small field, we’ll take a look at profiles for
all runners and take both profiles and trends into consideration later on.
The Trends Case Against Yorkhill
It’s dangerous to make decisions too early when studying a
race, but there are often a number of pointers hidden amongst past race results
which don’t quite make it to the above list, and I think it’s necessary that we
look at these issues at this stage.
Firstly, Mullins’ record in the race over the last 10 years
is particularly poor. His record in the last 10 years reads 7352P34453UF46425.
Among these horses are the favourites from the last two runnings, at 5/4 and
evens respectively. Indeed, Mullins has trained 4 of the last 10 favourites,
and 3 of the last 10 second-favourites, but has picked up no wins and just 4
places from 17 runners in the last 10 years. He has never won this race.
It isn’t just Mullins that has a poor record with
favourites. The record of the last 10 favourites is 2243F12F42 – only one of
the last 10 favourites won, and another 4 made the frame. 7 of the last 10
favourites went off at a price shorter than 2/1, yet only one managed to win.
Finally, 15 runners in the last 10 years have come here
having had their last run at the Cheltenham festival – just one of these won
and another 3 made the frame. It is worth noting that most of these years,
there was a shorter break between Fairyhouse and Cheltenham, but the statistics
are still not overly encouraging. The list of horses which came here from the
Cheltenham festival is shown below:
Year
|
Horse
|
Days
Since Cheltenham Run
|
Odds
|
Finishing
Position
|
2007
|
Ursis
|
23 days
|
5/1
|
5th
|
2009
|
Golden Silver
|
33 days
|
11/2
|
7th
|
2010
|
Nicanor
|
17 days
|
16/1
|
Pulled up
|
2011
|
Noble Prince
|
38 days
|
13/8
|
Fell
|
Mikael Dhaguenet
|
39 days
|
3/1
|
4th
|
|
Loosen My Load
|
38 days
|
4/1
|
2nd
|
|
Realt Dubh
|
40 days
|
9/2
|
1st
|
|
2012
|
White Star Line
|
26 days
|
16/1
|
6th
|
Call The Police
|
25 days
|
6/1
|
4th
|
|
2014
|
Ballycasey
|
39 days
|
11/8
|
Fell
|
2015
|
Apache Stronghold
|
24 days
|
5/1
|
Fell
|
Valseur Lido
|
24 days
|
4/1
|
6th
|
|
Smashing
|
26 days
|
25/1
|
3rd
|
|
2016
|
Mckinley
|
12 days
|
14/1
|
4th
|
Outlander
|
10 days
|
evens
|
2nd
|
Profiles
Here, we try to outline the ideal conditons for each horse. All stats are in the form Runs-Wins-Places (with places excluding wins).
Anibale Fly
- 13 starts – 6 wins – 2 places
- 1 win and 2 places from 4 starts at Fairyhouse. 2nd and 1st in 2 bumpers at the track in 2015, 6th in a grade 2 2m handicap hurdle in 2016 and 2nd in the Drinmore Novices Chase last December.
- Probably prefers softer ground, although he has won on a sounder surface (4-1-1 on yielding or better, 9-5-1 on yielding to soft or worse)
- 3-1-1 over 2m 4f, 3-1-0 over 3m, so staying shouldn’t be an issue
- Seems to like both very small and large fields (4-2-1 in fields of 7 or less, 3-3-0 in fields of 16 or more, 6-1-1 in fields of 8-15)
- Bad record when back out quickly (5-0-1 when back out within 30 days of last start, 7-6-0 after over 30 days off the track)
- Season starts well (7-3-2 from November to January) before going downhill (2-0-0 in February) and picking up again (2-1-0 in March and 2-2-0 in April)
- Possibly has a slight preference for left-handed tracks (7-4-0 compared to 6-2-2 going right-handed)
- Possible preference for tracks with some undulations (11-6-2), while he was unplaced on both of 2 starts on flat tracks
There are no real
negatives here – a possible preference for softer ground isn’t ideal, but
everything else is perfect, other than a possible preference for left-handed
tracks, which isn’t a strong statistic at all. In terms of trends, Anibale Fly fails on not having
finished in the top 3 last time out and not having posted an RPR of 138+ last
time out. However, that was a very unusual race to say the least, and if we
were to put a line through that run, he posted an RPR of 148 on his penultimate
start (although this still wouldn’t fit the 150+ trend) in which he finished 1st.
Attribution
- 14 starts – 3 wins – 7 places
- 2-0-1 at Fairyhouse – 7th of 8 in a 2m grade 2 Novices Hurdle at this meeting last year, 2nd in a Beginners Chase last November
- Seems to have a preference for better ground (8-3-4 on yielding to soft or better compared to 6-0-3 on soft or worse)
- Never ran over 2m 4f or further – 1-0-0 over 2m 3½f, 1-1-0 over 2m 1f
- Bryan Cooper (4-2-2) and Barry Geraghty (1-1-0) have the best records, but it’s worth noting that Nina Carberry has never finished outside the places on him (4-0-4)
- Never ran in a grade 1 before (4-0-1 in grade 2’s, 1-1-0 in grade 3’s).
- Hard to see any preferences based on field size or the length of his break before running
- All of his wins have come between October and December (9-3-4), 5-0-3 between January and May
- Possibly prefers less undulating tracks, although it’s hard to tell (5-2-2 on tracks with slight undulations, 9-1-5 on more undulating tracks). Hard to see any preference based on direction.
Attribution doesn’t have
one of his ideal jockeys on board and tends to tail off towards the end of the
season. The rest of his profile is okay, but he does fail on a number of traits
in the trends and therefore he doesn’t come into consideration for me.
Baily Cloud
- 26 starts – 4 wins – 6 places
- Unplaced on all 3 starts at Fairyhouse (unseated the rider in a maiden hurdle in 2015, 8th in a grade 2 2m novices hurdle at this meeting in 2015, 4th of 5 in the grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle in November 2015)
- Probably prefers better ground (15-4-1 on yielding or better, 11-0-5 on yielding to soft or worse)
- 5-0-0 over 2m 4f but 2-2-0 over 2m 4½f
- 1-1-0 with Bryan Cooper on board, David Casey’s record of 6-0-4 is also worth noting
- Has come up short in top class races (6-0-0 in grade 2’s and 1’s, 4-0-2 in grade 3’s)
- Doesn’t seem to like smaller fields (10-2-0 in fields of 7 or less, 16-2-6 in fields of 8 or more)
- Definitely capable of running well after a long break (3-1-1 after over 120 days off the track) but it’s not a necessity and he has some decent records when back out after shorter breaks
- Doesn’t tend to finish the season well (4-0-0 in March and April), while October is the month with the strongest record (4-2-1)
- Preference for right-handed tracks (16-3-4 compared to 10-1-2 going left-handed)
- Seems to have a preference for more undulating tracks (14-3-4 on undulating tracks compared to 12-1-2 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations)
Baily Cloud’s Fairyhouse
record is a worry, as is his poor record in grade 1 and 2 races. He also has a
poor record in small fields and at the end of the season, and I can’t have him
here based on that profile. His trends performance is similarly poor, coming
out bottom of the heap based on those trends.
Ball D’Arc
- 22 starts – 8 wins – 6 places
- 3-1-1 at Fairyhouse – unseated at the first in a Beginners Chase here last October, won the grade 1 Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase in January and finished 2nd in the grade 2 Normans Grove Chase earlier this month
- Seems relatively versatile in terms of ground with a strong record of 3-1-1 on good ground, but does have a preference for softer ground (17-7-5 on yielding or worse compared to 5-1-1 on good to yielding or better)
- 2-1-1 over 2m 4f
- Jockeys – a number of records worth noting: Nina Carberry (1-1-0), Jack Kennedy (1-1-0), Kevin Sexton (1-1-0) and Bryan Cooper (11-4-5)
- Strong record of 11-4-3 in graded races (3-1-0 in grade 1’s)
- He does have a better record in bigger fields (10-3-2 in fields of 7 or less, 12-5-4 in fields of 8 or more) but has finished outside the places on both of 2 starts in fields 16 or more runners
- Probably peaks slightly earlier than the end of the season (5-4-0 in January and February, 6-1-1 in March and April)
Although he can
perform on better ground, Ball D’Arc certainly does seem to have a preference for a
softer surface. He has finished outside the places on both starts with Davy
Russell on board, has a stronger record in bigger fields and seems to peak a
bit earlier in the season. While he performs very well on trends, there are a
few question marks in his profile (although it’s not bad enough to immediately
warrant exclusion)
Road To Respect
- 13 starts – 3 wins – 4 places
- Unplaced on both of his 2 starts at Fairyhouse (5th in a grade 2 handicap hurdle in 2016, 4th in this year’s Drinmore Novice Chase)
- He probably prefers softer ground (5-1-0 on yielding or better, 8-2-4 on yielding to soft or worse). His sole win on better ground was his last run at Cheltenham, when the ground was officially described as good but seemed quite dead on the day
- 5-0-3 over this trip, but 1-1-0 over 2m 3f and 1-1-0 over 2m 5f
- Bryan Cooper has by far the best record on him (6-2-4), compared to 7-1-0 with all other jockeys
- Yet to make an impact at the top level – 2-1-0 in grade 3’s, but 5-0-1 in grade 2’s and 1’s
- Definite preference for larger fields (5-2-2 in fields of 16 or more compared to 4-1-2 in smaller fields). He particularly dislikes very small fields, having finished outside the places on all 4 starts in fields of 7 or less
- Probably better when back out after a bit of a break (4-2-1 after more than 30 days off compared to 8-1-2 after 30 days or less). 3-2-1 after more than 40 days off the track.
- Possibly has a slight preference for left-handed tracks (6-2-2 compared to 7-1-2 going left-handed)
- Prefers more undulating tracks (8-3-2 compared to 5-0-2 on flat tracks and those described as having slight undulations)
Road To Respect is one of
just two horses to fit every trend (although he did run at Cheltenham).
However, his profile doesn’t paint a particularly nice picture – he has a bad
record at Cheltenham, wold prefer softer ground, hasn’t performed well in the
past in grade 1 and 2 races and doesn’t like small fields. Ideally, we’d also
like to see him on a left-handed track after a slightly longer break. The only
strong positive is Bryan Cooper’s strong record on him, which is a nice stat, but
the rest of his profile isn’t encouraging and I’m going to exclude him despite his
strong trends record.
Some Plan
- 16 starts – 5 wins – 3 places
- Never ran at Fairyhouse
- Probably seen to his best on good ground (5-3-0, compared to 11-2-3 on worse ground) but he has won on soft and it doesn’t seem to be a major preference
- Never ran over 2m 4f – the further he has run over is 2m 1f (3-1-1).
- Jockeys – Paddy Brennan (5-2-1), David Mullins (4-2-0) and Davy Russell (1-1-0) are the records worth noting here
- Only 9-1-1 in listed races or better. He did win the grade 1 Irish Arkle, but was the only horse left standing that day
- Definitely likes small fields (6-4-1 in fields of 7 or less compared to 10-1-2 in larger fields)
- Capable of running well after a break (3-2-0 after over 120 days off the track), but he also has a good record when back out within 60 days of his last start (10-3-2)
- Seems to peak during the first half of the season (10-5-3 between October and February, 6-0-0 in March, April and May).
- Possible preference for right-handed tracks (5-2-2 compared to 11-3-1 going left-handed) but it’s hard to say
Some Plan’s trends weren’t
excellent but they weren’t awful – his poor run at Cheltenham last time out
means that he fails on two trends (although his penultimate run would have fit
both), and he has yet to run over this sort of trip. This is also one of the
worries in his profile – there are a few others, but it’s not too bad; he doesn’t
have one of the ideal jockeys, he hasn’t done well in listed races in the past,
and he seems to peak earlier in the season.
Yorkhill
- 10 starts – 9 wins – 0 places
- Won on sole start at Fairyhouse, in a beginners’ chase last December
- It’s almost pointless to make a profile in this situation, where he has won on almost all of his starts. It might be relevant that his sole defeat came at the end of a season, after just 17 days off the track in a small field of 6. He had had 4 previous starts that season, whereas he has only run 3 times so far this year
- If we look at which of his runs have been most impressive, it could be suggested that he prefers larger fields
- He has been known to jump left throughout his career, which would suggest that he would be better going left-handed, but this hasn’t been an issue in the past due to his fantastic talent
Yorkhill fits all the
trends on the table, but there are clear reasons to doubt his suitability to
the race, as outlined earlier on in the piece. As for his profile, there’s no
denying the fact that he’s fantastically talented, having won 9 times from 10
starts. His jumping could potentially be an issue, while smaller worries would
be the smaller field and whether he may be tired after the JLT.
The Verdict
I had thought that this could be a lovely each-way race if 8
runners were left in the race on Friday, in which case we could have backed
horses each-way with 3 places guaranteed under ante-post rules. However, we’re
now left with 7 and so will only get 2 places, meaning that this isn’t
necessarily an ideal each-way race.
The obvious course of action, therefore, would be to back
the favourite. The bottom line here for me is value – there are plenty of
doubts (as outlined above) and these are question marks I’d be willing to
overlook at odds against, but I can’t have him at 1/2.
So, now we have to figure out what to back each-way. I’ve
already outlined the reasons why I can’t have Attribution, Baily Cloud
or Road To Respect. Some Plan has plenty of doubts in his
profile, and it’s also not clear whether he’ll stay this trip. While his
penultimate run was up to the standard generally needed as preparation for this
race, it’s fair to say that he was flattered by the result (all other horses
fell) and having run at Cheltenham is a negative.
Ball D’Arc is
definitely worth considering, particularly based on his fantastic trends record
– however, there are three major question marks in his profile; a preference
for softer ground, a preference for bigger fields and a better record earlier in
the season. He definitely fits the bill in terms of what we’re generally
looking for in this race, but I’m passing up here, with one other contender
standing out slightly more.
The other horse in question is Anibale Fly. His profile is almost perfect, with the only potential
issue being a preference for softer ground. However, it has been suggested that
soft ground was to blame for his poor run last time out, and the he will
benefit from a sounder surface. He fails on two trends for the same reason; his
last run was particularly poor, at Navan on February 19th. He was
6/4 favourite that day but ran very poorly. As I mentioned, Barry Geraghty has
claimed that the tough conditions underfoot were the issue that day – others might
argue that the issue was simply the way the race panned out (although it should
be noted that his jumping was quite poor on that occasion).
However, he showed real potential on previous form and could
be well in the mix here. While it’s disappointing not to have 3 places, 7/1 is
a fair price for an each-way bet. If he chases home Yorkhill¸ our returns aren’t that much lower than they would be
when backing the favourite, and if Yorkhill
does disappoint and Anibale Fly
manages to take advantage, we could be in for a nice return.
BET: ANIBALE FLY E/W
7/1
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