The Parade Ring

Friday, 2 May 2014

2000 Guineas Trends Analysis

Last year, we began using our unique and innovative method of trying to break down and analyse trends with the Irish 2000 Guineas, and it got us off to a good start, picking a 3/1 winner in the shape of Aidan O’Brien’s Magician. This year, we decided to hold off on keeping a profit/loss on the trends analysis until the flat is well and truly underway – that is, when the Classics begin on Guineas weekend at Newmarket.

For anyone who hasn’t seen the trends analysis before, here’s how it works:

We begin by taking into account the draw of the horse. This takes into consideration the numbers of wins, places, strike rates, etc. Almost all of the data used to decide which horses get “points” can be viewed in a simplified form in the table shown. This is usually done over a longer period than 10 years – maybe 15, or, in today’s case, 17 years.

We then do the same thing with the market positions of the horses. We used to use odds to break them down but market positions are more reliable and represent the data better. This is done over the same period of time as the stall and the information is broken down in the same way.

After that, we do the same thing again with the horse’s finishing position on their last start. Again, this is done in the same way as the first two. These three criteria are always the same and are broken down in the same way. For this reason, they are a more comprehensive guide to the various trends than your average “7 of the last 10 winners…” trend.

However, we do use more standardised and common trends, generally based on recent form – the type that you might be more likely to see around the internet. For example, “8 of the last 10 runners had won at Newmarket”. We might use any number of these trends and list which horses fit the trends.

Finally, we add everything up in “The Big Table”. The horse’s final result is the amount of trends they fitted. The horse with the largest total is the bet.

So, here we go:

Stall

Stall	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	2	12%	5	29%
2	17	1	6%	0	0%	1	6%
3	17	2	12%	1	6%	3	18%
4	17	0	0%	4	24%	4	24%
5	17	1	6%	2	12%	3	18%
6	17	2	12%	1	6%	3	18%
7	17	0	0%	2	12%	2	12%
8	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
9	17	1	6%	2	12%	3	18%
10	17	1	6%	1	6%	2	12%
11	16	1	6%	3	19%	4	25%
12	17	1	6%	0	0%	1	6%
13	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
14	13	0	0%	3	23%	3	23%

So, according to the table, we should be looking out for horses running from stalls 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13 and 14. This doesn’t narrow down the field much admittedly, but there will be plenty of time for the field to be narrowed down later on.

Place LTO

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	120	12	10%	16	13%	28	23%
Second	59	1	2%	7	12%	8	14%
Third	33	2	6%	2	6%	4	12%
Fourth	30	0	0%	2	7%	2	7%
Ninth	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%

We’ll be giving points to horses who came 1^st, 3^rd or 9^th on their last appearance. It should be noted that in the above table, horses who had their final run outside of the UK or Ireland are not included.

Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	4	24%	5	29%	9	53%
2	21	4	19%	2	10%	6	29%
3	14	2	14%	1	7%	3	21%
4	18	2	11%	3	17%	5	28%
5	17	0	0%	4	24%	4	24%
6	23	3	13%	4	17%	7	30%
7	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
8	16	0	0%	4	25%	4	25%
9	18	1	6%	1	6%	2	11%
10	15	1	7%	1	7%	2	13%
11	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
12	22	0	0%	2	9%	2	9%
13	23	0	0%	3	13%	3	13%
14	9	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We’ll be focusing on the top 4 in the market, as well 5^th, 6^th and 8^th in the betting.

Recent Form

8 of the last 10 winners won on their first 2yo start

9 of the last 10 winners posted a Racing Post rating of 85 or higher on their debut

10 of the last 10 winners had either had at least 3 runs, or been unbeaten in their first two runs

9 of the last 10 winners had won two or more winners

10 of the last 10 winners had run in August or since then

10 of the last 10 winners posted a Racing Post rating of 110 or higher on their last appearance

9 of the last 10 winners were group winners

9 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f or 8f

The Big Table

Horse

Total

Australia

Yes

Bookrunner

Yes

Charm Spirit

Yes

Ertijaal

Yes

Kingman

Yes

Kingston Hill

Yes

Master The World

Yes

Night Of Thunder

Yes

Noozhoh Canarias*

Yes

Outstrip

Yes

Shifting Power

Yes

The Grey Gatsby

Yes

Toormore

Yes

War Command

Yes

Noozhoh Canarias did not receive an RPR on his debut or last run. His total is given to him assuming that he would have fitted the two RPR trends (numbers 5 and 9).

So, our shortlist is:

1. Kingman 15/8, Toormore 17/2 (Noozhoh Canarias 25/1)

2. Kingston Hill 14/1

Last year, we would have advised you back Kingman, Toormore, and Noozhoh Canarias. This year, however, when we are in a situation such as this, we’re going to leave it as a no-bet. It’s disappointing to begin the season in this fashion but it’s sure to be more profitable over the season.

Thursday, 1 May 2014

Andy Cummins' 2000 Guineas Preview & Picks

Hello,

My name is Andy. I am seventeen years of age and live in Dublin Ireland. I have a strong interest in racing. I am a fan of the breeding side of the game as well and I have recently started writing short pieces on upcoming racing. Some feedback would be wonderful and I can be contacted via my twitter (https://twitter.com/Handy_Andy96) or by email on andrewcummins96 @ gmail .com

Thank you for your time,

Andy

One of the most eagerly anticipated races of the British Racing calendar, The Qipco 2,000 Guineas raises the curtain for The British Champions Series and is also the first Group 1 of the season in the UK.

Like every other year this is an eagerly awaited renewal of the race with the leading protagonist being Kingman. The John Gosden trained colt is generally around the even money mark for the race and was extremely impressive when winning the Greenham Stakes at Newbury three weeks ago. However there may be more chinks in his armor then one may think. For a start the Rowly mile at Newmarket will take some getting and being by Invincible Spirit, in my opinion I don’t think Kingman will see out a mile as well as some of his opposition. However his dam Zenda did win the French 1,000 Guineas and one will argue the mile will be no issue. The ground will most likely turn up good to firm. John Gosden has expressed his concerns about this already. I believe Kingman is too short at even money with these question marks over his head, however I would not put you off him, he has the right to be favourite on what he has shown us. If you were to back him I would leave him SP as I cannot see him getting any shorter on the day.

The Ballydoyle duo of the impeccably bred Australia and last season’s Dewhurst winner War Command pose a great threat to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a seventh victory in the race. Australia was a Group 3 winner at two when winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile trial at Leopardstown on Champion Stakes day, a race he won very impressively, his pedigree screams Epsom as Galileo and Ouija Board won the Derby and Oaks respectively and questions are drawn to whether he has the speed for the 2,000 guineas. Galileo has sired only one (English) 2,000 Guineas winner and that was the freak that is Frankel. I believe Australia will have to be very special indeed to win such a race. There is no doubt his best work will be towards the end of the race. As for his stable mate War Command, I can see this classy colt going very close. His dam (Wandering Star) won a group 2 in Woodbine in Canada over ten furlongs so the mile should not be an issue. 14/1 (Boyles Sports) is a great each way proposition and I think he is the more likely of the Ballydoyle duo to be first past the post.

Rookie trainer Richard Hannon Jr is mob handed in pursuit of his first Group 1 and first classic as a trainer, he saddles Shifting Power (Generally a 33/1 chance) who won the European Free handicap at the Craven meeting at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Night of Thunder who is between 20/1 and 25/1 for the race was a remote second to Kingman in to Greenham Stakes, however if Kingman turns out to be a proper machine this colt could be closer then some may think. He beat everything comfortably in the Greenham bar Kingman, so possibly strong supporters of Kingman may opt to also back Night of Thunder each way as his price is appealing. Hannon’s main contender is the champion two year old colt of last year Toormore. Toormore was the winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood when he just edged out Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Outstrip and he also landed the National Stakes at the Curragh when seeing off Phoenix Stakes winner Sudirman. His Craven win was workmanlike but it was his first run of the season and he was conceding three pounds to the whole field. I believe this was an excellent showing and his credentials are stronger with a course and distance victory under his belt. I think his form is top class and 6/1 is a very tempting price.

Roger Varian saddles Racing Post trophy winner Kingston Hill who also represents the first crop of Mastercraftsman in the classic. I personally cannot fancy him as the Racing Post Trophy looks to have been below par but all Kingston Hill can do is beat what is put before him and in fairness he is unbeaten. The ground could also be a concern as Kingston Hill has never encountered anything quicker then good to soft. Kingston Hill is a general 10/1 chance.

Noozoh Canarias will make history of being the first Spanish trained horse to run in the 2,000 Guineas, he is not there to make up the numbers either with an excellent second in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last October.

The good to firm ground also makes me fancy Outstrip at a big price. The Breeders Cup Juvenile winner will love the quick ground and at 25/1, in my eyes is an insane price for a Group 1 winner. This is a decant each way bet as his two defeats to rivals Toormore and War Command were on good to soft ground and there is every chance it can be reversed with a faster going.

My selection for the race is Toormore as his form seems the strongest and he is guaranteed to see out the mile. The ground and trip puts me off Kingman. 1/1 just seems far too short for a horse that may not like that ground, I expect him to run a decent race though. War Command and Outstrip will not be disgraced either at bigger prices.

• 1st – Toormore (6/1)
• 2nd – War Command (14/1)
• 3rd – Outstrip (25/1)

Stay tuned to the blog this weekend for more from Andy as he previews the 1000 Guineas and both Saturday and Sunday's support cards.

Punchestown Champion Hurdle Preview & Selections

Day 3 of Cheltenham gave us a loss and showed just how trappy this meeting, though fantastic, can be! Yesterday’s favourites and co-favourites came 9^th, 12^th, 21^st, 22^nd, 4^th, 5^th, 2^nd, 15^th, 6^th, 3^rd, and 4^th on what was a day to forget for jolly-backers.

As for us, we picked up a place in the La Touche Cup with Uncle Junior coming from nowhere to finish 3^rd at 11/2. Duke Of Lucca seemed to take to the banks well and travelled and jumped brilliantly throughout – he looked like a bit of shoe-in in-running according to the exchanges, but ended up a disappointing 5^th. And Bishopsfurze was, as we warned, unpredictable and didn’t run to his potential.

In the big one, our 12/1 e/w selection, Bog Warrior was a non-runner. With the race won by a 20/1 outsider, and Quevega, At Fishers Cross, and Fingal Bay not running quite as well as may have been expected, I really think Bog Warrior could have given them all a run for their money. We were of course then watching the race from a neutral perspective as far as betting was concerned, and it would have been brilliant to see wonder-mare Quevega finish off a wonderful career with a win at Punchestown. Full credit must go, however, to Jetson, who gave a brave run in front, and Davy Russell, who got the ride just perfect.

Gods Own was the 25/1 winner of the Grade 1 Ryanair Novices Chase, followed home by a 20/1 shot and then our selection, Balder Success. Our each-way bet, on the other hand, came 5^th after running well most of the way around.

Today, though, is the big day. From the start of the festival, the clash of Hurricane Fly and Jezki has been billed as the race of the week, with Jessica Harrington’s up-and-coming Champion Hurdle winner facing off against arguably the best two-mile hurdler of all time (arguably – let’s not get into that). To top it off, just over half an hour after we witness this supposed Clash of the Titans, possibly the most exciting horse from Cheltenham, Vautour makes an appearance in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle.

Moving on, then, as always, to the racing….

5.30 – Punchestown Champion Hurdle – 2m – Grade 1

This has been billed as the race of the festival for a long time now, with record-breaking Grade 1 winner Hurricane Fly, having dominated not only this particular race but all of the two-mile hurdling division for so long, being challenged by Jessica Harrington’s 2014 Champion Hurdler, Jezki.

Old Kings versus new pretenders, classic heroes versus rising stars, this race should in theory have everything that National Hunt racing is renowned for – the same stalwarts of the game returning each year, while exciting new prospects come bursting onto the scene, perhaps unexpectedly as may have been the case for Jezki’s Champion Hurdle win.

But first, the mighty Fly. Hurricane Fly is one of the true characters of Willie Mullins’ yard, who seems to have been there forever, who has a great talent and also a great attitude, and who is admired and supported constantly by his loyal fan base. The Fly is one of those horses which don’t come around too often which manage to capture the imagination of not only the racing public, but of a whole country which gets behind this star hurdler every time he runs.

However, at Cheltenham his vocal supporters were silenced when Jessica Harrington’s 6yo Jezki, ridden by Barry Geraghty, won the Champion Hurdle, with My Tent Or Yours and The New One directly behind him and Hurricane Fly reduced to just fourth. With Jezki running immaculately, The New One being badly hampered and recovering brilliantly, and My Tent Or Yours finishing very well considering how keenly he ran, Hurricane Fly was a definite fourth-best.

Supporters will point out that he has won this race for the last four consecutive years, but I would be quick to caution you that, although he ran off the back of Cheltenham defeat in 2012, he had in my book run to a career best in either his last or second last start before Punchestown, a feat which he has not managed to repeat this year. His runs this season haven’t been to quite the same standard as we’ve been lucky enough to see over the past few years from Hurricane Fly. Although the Cheltenham run can perhaps be discounted due to fast ground, the other starts these season (despite the fact that they were wins) lacked something the Fly has had in past years.

Jezki, on the other hand, comes in to this race off the back of what was undoubtedly a career best performance in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. All of the talk surrounding how unlucky The New One was having been hampered by the fallen Our Conor has taken away slightly from Jezki’s run – he quite simply did nothing wrong and it’s hard to find any chinks in his armour.

The ground won’t be as fast today as it was at Prestbury Park the month before last, but Jezki will be in no way disadvantaged by soft ground – in fact, the official going description is Good to Yielding, on which ground he is 2 wins from 2 runs in the past. He is one from one on good to soft, one from one on yielding, and one from two on good ground, perfectly demonstrating how versatile this horse is.

Jezki also has nothing to be afraid of regarding the fact that Hurricane Fly is a course specialist (8 wins from 9 runs) with a win from his only past race at the track only a good sign. He is also four from four on right-handed tracks and four from four on undulating tracks such as Punchestown.

Admittedly, and this is to take nothing away from the Champion McCoy, I was disappointed to see that he had replaced Barry Geraghty, who is currently in fine form, on board Jezki, after choosing to overlook him in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jezki has a 100% record with Geraghty on his back, with five wins from five runs.

The theory that Hurricane Fly will have come on for the Cheltenham run doesn’t mean much to me. He ran his final race before the festival in February and has made plenty of course appearances this year already. Jezki, on the other hand, seemed to come to life when he came to Punchestown last year, reversing the form with the 2013 Supreme winner Champagne Fever by beating him in the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle.

Soon after the death of her husband Johnny, it’s wonderful to see that Jessica Harrington in form at the moment – and it would be even better if Jezki could top off his Champion Hurdle win with one in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle.

1 – Jezki

2 – Hurricane Fly

3 – Steps To Freedom

Jezki EVENS* (NAP)

*Be sure to get Best Odds Guaranteed.

Elsewhere today, the tank that is Vautour runs after his Supreme form has been franked in style by the horses he made short work of in the opening race of the Cheltenham festival. He’s undoubtedly the most likely winner today but I won’t be betting at 1/3 in a race in which I wouldn’t put you off a bet on any of the runners (except maybe for Noble Emperor). Yes, Vautour is worth watching, but I’m going to leave this race watched today, even if I do have massive faith in the horse.

As always, the very best of luck and only bet what you can afford to lose. Jezki is, by the way, a festival bet and the NAP of the day.

Candice Hare's Kentucky Derby Preview & Picks

Candice Hare, who currently lives in Colorado, is the product analytics associate for tech startup Sumazi. She spends her time watching and analyzing races from around the world and her favorite horses are Palace Malice, Grandeur, and Silviniaco Conti.
She regularly tweets her thoughts on horse racing and she's well worth a follow - click here
She also has her own blog, Capping With Candice, on which she posts her analysis for all to see - I would highly recommend you give it a read - click here

So often the Kentucky Derby is a wide open race and this year looks to be no different. The deserving favorite will be California Chrome, a son of Lucky Pulpit, who has far and away outrun his pedigree en route to four straight victories -- the most recent of which was in the G1 Santa Anita Derby over Hoppertunity, who would’ve been the likely second choice if running. While California Chrome has thoroughly dominated the California scene this year, he isn’t without flaw. He often has trouble breaking from the gate and has either broken out wide or stumbled at the start of nearly every race he’s run of late aside from the G2 San Felipe, in which he started perfectly. He’ll need another perfect start here, as he’s drawn between two who are quick out of the gate in Samraat and Danza. California Chrome been more successful when running outside in the clear, which he won’t be able to do here, so if you’re looking to play against him, this appears to be as good a shot as any.

Personally, my top choice is Uncle Sigh, whose sire Indian Charlie finished third in the Kentucky Derby back in 1998. After twice finishing a close second to Samraat in races where the latter held a tactical advantage, Uncle Sigh ran what was perhaps his best performance to date in defeat in the G1 Wood Memorial. Sure, he finished fifth in there, but he completely blew the break, giving up a good two lengths to the field, before settling off the pace, which he hadn’t done in any prior race. He often looked unfocused and despite having by far the widest trip in the field, he finished the race with interest. Based off that effort, I’m inclined to think the extra furlong won’t be an issue and he’ll wear blinkers for the first time here, with which he’s looked fantastic in videos of recent works. The only concern for Uncle Sigh is that the ground near the rail at Churchill Downs can be taxing at times, so he’s only playable if horses show an ability to work the rail path in races on the undercard.

Others to consider are Samraat, who as I previously mentioned defeated Uncle Sigh twice at shorter distances. He fought gamely to finish second in the Wood Memorial and is as gritty as they come. If the pace gets chippy early on, Dance With Fate and Medal Count, who finished 1-2 in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes, are viable options. Both of them will be switching from the all weather back to dirt, but they have each run respectably on the dirt in the past and should be closing late.

Selections:
1. Uncle Sigh (40/1)
2. Samraat (16/1)
3. Dance With Fate (20/1)
4. Medal Count (33/1)