Friday, 2 May 2014

2000 Guineas Trends Analysis

Last year, we began using our unique and innovative method of trying to break down and analyse trends with the Irish 2000 Guineas, and it got us off to a good start, picking a 3/1 winner in the shape of Aidan O’Brien’s Magician. This year, we decided to hold off on keeping a profit/loss on the trends analysis until the flat is well and truly underway – that is, when the Classics begin on Guineas weekend at Newmarket.

For anyone who hasn’t seen the trends analysis before, here’s how it works:

We begin by taking into account the draw of the horse. This takes into consideration the numbers of wins, places, strike rates, etc. Almost all of the data used to decide which horses get “points” can be viewed in a simplified form in the table shown. This is usually done over a longer period than 10 years – maybe 15, or, in today’s case, 17 years.

We then do the same thing with the market positions of the horses. We used to use odds to break them down but market positions are more reliable and represent the data better. This is done over the same period of time as the stall and the information is broken down in the same way.

After that, we do the same thing again with the horse’s finishing position on their last start. Again, this is done in the same way as the first two. These three criteria are always the same and are broken down in the same way. For this reason, they are a more comprehensive guide to the various trends than your average “7 of the last 10 winners…” trend.

However, we do use more standardised and common trends, generally based on recent form – the type that you might be more likely to see around the internet. For example, “8 of the last 10 runners had won at Newmarket”. We might use any number of these trends and list which horses fit the trends.

Finally, we add everything up in “The Big Table”. The horse’s final result is the amount of trends they fitted. The horse with the largest total is the bet.

So, here we go:

Stall


Stall
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
17
3
18%
2
12%
5
29%
2
17
1
6%
0
0%
1
6%
3
17
2
12%
1
6%
3
18%
4
17
0
0%
4
24%
4
24%
5
17
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
6
17
2
12%
1
6%
3
18%
7
17
0
0%
2
12%
2
12%
8
17
0
0%
3
18%
3
18%
9
17
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
10
17
1
6%
1
6%
2
12%
11
16
1
6%
3
19%
4
25%
12
17
1
6%
0
0%
1
6%
13
17
1
6%
3
18%
4
24%
14
13
0
0%
3
23%
3
23%

So, according to the table, we should be looking out for horses running from stalls 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13 and 14. This doesn’t narrow down the field much admittedly, but there will be plenty of time for the field to be narrowed down later on.

Place LTO


Place LTO
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
First
120
12
10%
16
13%
28
23%
Second
59
1
2%
7
12%
8
14%
Third
33
2
6%
2
6%
4
12%
Fourth
30
0
0%
2
7%
2
7%
Ninth
4
0
0%
1
25%
1
25%

We’ll be giving points to horses who came 1st, 3rd or 9th on their last appearance. It should be noted that in the above table, horses who had their final run outside of the UK or Ireland are not included.

Market Position


Mrkt Pos
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
17
4
24%
5
29%
9
53%
2
21
4
19%
2
10%
6
29%
3
14
2
14%
1
7%
3
21%
4
18
2
11%
3
17%
5
28%
5
17
0
0%
4
24%
4
24%
6
23
3
13%
4
17%
7
30%
7
16
0
0%
2
13%
2
13%
8
16
0
0%
4
25%
4
25%
9
18
1
6%
1
6%
2
11%
10
15
1
7%
1
7%
2
13%
11
17
0
0%
1
6%
1
6%
12
22
0
0%
2
9%
2
9%
13
23
0
0%
3
13%
3
13%
14
9
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%

We’ll be focusing on the top 4 in the market, as well 5th, 6th and 8th in the betting.

Recent Form


8 of the last 10 winners won on their first 2yo start
9 of the last 10 winners posted a Racing Post rating of 85 or higher on their debut
10 of the last 10 winners had either had at least 3 runs, or been unbeaten in their first two runs
9 of the last 10 winners had won two or more winners
10 of the last 10 winners had run in August or since then
10 of the last 10 winners posted a Racing Post rating of 110 or higher on their last appearance
9 of the last 10 winners were group winners
9 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f or 8f

The Big Table


Horse
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Total
Australia
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
9
Bookrunner
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
5
Charm Spirit
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
9
Ertijaal
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
6
Kingman
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
11
Kingston Hill
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
10
Master The World
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
5
Night Of Thunder
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
7
Noozhoh Canarias*
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
11
Outstrip
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
9
Shifting Power
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
7
The Grey Gatsby
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
4
Toormore
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
11
War Command
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
9

Noozhoh Canarias did not receive an RPR on his debut or last run. His total is given to him assuming that he would have fitted the two RPR trends (numbers 5 and 9).

So, our shortlist is:

1.       Kingman 15/8, Toormore 17/2 (Noozhoh Canarias 25/1)
2.       Kingston Hill 14/1


Last year, we would have advised you back Kingman, Toormore, and Noozhoh Canarias. This year, however, when we are in a situation such as this, we’re going to leave it as a no-bet. It’s disappointing to begin the season in this fashion but it’s sure to be more profitable over the season.
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