Again, it was a no-bet for our trends analysis in the Duke
Of York Stakes, despite the fact that we would have had a bet under the same
circumstances last season. However, I’m convinced that this new system, which
does involve a lot of no-bet races, will be more profitable for us – on
Thursday, for example, we picked up the only place money on offer in the race
with Arod, which would have meant profits (using the system of e/w bets on
horses 4/1+) if it wasn’t for the fact that we backed True Story as well.
The same would have been the case if odds-on shot True Story
had won (and Arod had failed to place) and therefore it was really a no-brainer
that we shouldn’t have a bet in the race. It’s a long season ahead and so I’m
not yet panicking about a few no-bet races.
Today it’s the Lockinge Stakes and we’ll do the analysis
again in the hope that one horse will come out on top and thus provide us with
our first trends analysis bet since the unsuccessful 1000 Guineas.
Stall
|
Draw
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Win%
|
Places
|
Place%
|
Win/Place
|
Win/Place%
|
|
1
|
15
|
2
|
13%
|
2
|
13%
|
4
|
27%
|
|
2
|
14
|
0
|
0%
|
5
|
36%
|
5
|
36%
|
|
3
|
15
|
2
|
13%
|
2
|
13%
|
4
|
27%
|
|
4
|
16
|
2
|
13%
|
4
|
25%
|
6
|
38%
|
|
5
|
17
|
3
|
18%
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
18%
|
|
6
|
16
|
2
|
13%
|
4
|
25%
|
6
|
38%
|
|
7
|
16
|
3
|
19%
|
5
|
31%
|
8
|
50%
|
|
8
|
13
|
1
|
8%
|
3
|
23%
|
4
|
31%
|
|
9
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Stalls 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 are all worth keeping an eye on.
Place LTO
|
Place LTO
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Win%
|
Places
|
Place%
|
Win/Place
|
Win/Place%
|
|
First
|
53
|
5
|
9%
|
7
|
13%
|
12
|
23%
|
|
Second
|
24
|
4
|
17%
|
5
|
21%
|
9
|
38%
|
|
Third
|
16
|
1
|
6%
|
4
|
25%
|
5
|
31%
|
|
Fourth
|
17
|
4
|
24%
|
4
|
24%
|
8
|
47%
|
|
Fifth
|
9
|
2
|
22%
|
1
|
11%
|
3
|
33%
|
|
Ninth
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
Horses which finished in the top 5 on their last outing look
to be of interest here.
Market Position
|
Mrkt Pos
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Win%
|
Places
|
Place%
|
Win/Place
|
Win/Place%
|
|
1
|
17
|
8
|
47%
|
1
|
6%
|
9
|
53%
|
|
2
|
19
|
5
|
26%
|
4
|
21%
|
9
|
47%
|
|
3
|
22
|
2
|
9%
|
8
|
36%
|
10
|
45%
|
|
4
|
12
|
1
|
8%
|
1
|
8%
|
2
|
17%
|
|
5
|
16
|
0
|
0%
|
6
|
38%
|
6
|
38%
|
|
6
|
19
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
11%
|
2
|
11%
|
|
7
|
14
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
14%
|
2
|
14%
|
|
8
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
|
9
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
Top 3, 5th in the market are the ones receiving points here.
Recent Form
10 of the last 10 winners had won over a mile
9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 in a
group 1 race
9 of the last 10 winners had between 8 and 17 career starts.
The Big Table
|
Horse
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
Total
|
|
Chopin
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
|
Empire Storm
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
|
Montiridge
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
|
Olympic Glory
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4
|
|
Sruthan
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
|
Top Notch Tonto
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Tullius
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
4
|
|
Verrazano
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
5
|
So, we have our shortlist:
1.
Montiridge 15/2, Verrazano 11/2
2.
Olympic Glory 11/10, Tullius 9/1
And, finally, we have our two bets. Remember, last year we
would have backed both of these each-way, this year, we’re also trying out the
system only using win bets…
So, it’s: “0.5pts e/w on Montiridge @ 15/2, 0.5pts e/w on
Verrazano @ 11/2”
Or: “1pt win on Montiridge @15/2, 1pt win on Verrazano @
11/2”
As always, the very best of luck and be sure not to bet more
than you can afford to lose.
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