Sunday, 11 May 2014

Sunday Preview & Selections - Longchamp & Leopardstown

Both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas take place today at Longchamp, while in Leopardstown preparations are being made for Epsom, as well as for Guineas weekend at the Curragh, with the Derby Trial and the 1000 Guineas Trial.

2.08 – Longchamp – Poule Dessai Des Pouliches


The Pule Dessai Des Pouliches is the French equivalent of the 1000 Guineas. Favourite Lesstalk In Paris ran very well on her return, performing to the consistent level for which she has become known since her racecourse debut last August. She won well that day and followed up the next month with another win, again over the mile, having come on a great amount for her first start. She then ran to that same high standard last October, taking to Longchamp fantastically, but only managing second that day. Still, the performance itself was not to be scoffed at – it was as good, if not better, as her previous start.

She ran again at Longchamp on her return this season and seems to be just as good as she was a 2yo. Consistency and solid form are vital going into a classic, and Lesstalk In Paris is the one that stands out there. At a nicer price, Veda also loves Longchamp, and showed on her return to action here last month that she can be as good as any horse in this field on her day. Consistency is not her strong point, but her class stands out clearly. 10/1 is value for an each-way bet, although there are question marks over soft ground.

Lesstalk In Paris 9/2
Veda E/W 10/1

2.45 Longchamp – Poules Dessai Des Poulains


In the French 2000 Guineas, it looks again like the favourite could be the one to be on, with Karakontie simply looking like the horse they’re going to have to beat. He came a good 2nd last time out over this same course and distance, picking up where he left off last season with a good run that any horse in this field will find hard to match, never mind beat. He will handle the soft ground better than some, stay the trip better than some, and has a nice low draw. It could be a closer affair than some predict, but Karakontie still looks the most likely to come out on top.

As for an each-way bet, it’s hard to pick one out – Kiram isn’t much value but looks to be in which a chance, while you could make a case that Pornichet and Prestige Vendome are overpriced and perhaps of interest. However, the one that I’m interested in is Salai 28/1, a smart horse who is running against opponents who are theoretically thought to be better than him. I think that if he can run to the standard which he has set in the past, he could give some of the bigger names and better fancied horses a run for their money.

Karakontie 15/8
Salai E/W 28/1
(Optional French Guineas Double: Lesstalk In Paris + Karakontie)

3.55 Leopardstown – Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial – Group 3 – 1m 2f


With The Obliterator withdrawn this morning following heavy rain overnight at Leopardstown, this race should be made a simpler one… but it’s not. Geoffrey Chaucer and Fascinating Rock seem to have as much a chance as each other, while Ebanoran shouldn’t be discounted at longer odds. With little to find between the top two, it’s Fascinating Rock that gets the vote, based on his liking for softer ground and the flying form of the stable of Dermot Weld, which is stark contrast to the slow start to the season by Ballydoyle. In a tough race, I still wouldn't be lumping on.

Fascinating Rock 2/1


As always, best of luck and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.

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