Candice Hare, who currently lives in Colorado, is the product analytics associate for tech startup Sumazi. She spends her time watching and analyzing races from around the world and her favorite horses are Palace Malice, Grandeur, and Silviniaco Conti.
She regularly tweets her thoughts on horse racing and she's well worth a follow - click here
She also has her own blog, Capping With Candice, on which she posts her analysis for all to see - I would highly recommend you give it a read - click here
So often the Kentucky Derby is a wide open race and this year looks to be no different. The deserving favorite will be California Chrome, a son of Lucky Pulpit, who has far and away outrun his pedigree en route to four straight victories -- the most recent of which was in the G1 Santa Anita Derby over Hoppertunity, who would’ve been the likely second choice if running. While California Chrome has thoroughly dominated the California scene this year, he isn’t without flaw. He often has trouble breaking from the gate and has either broken out wide or stumbled at the start of nearly every race he’s run of late aside from the G2 San Felipe, in which he started perfectly. He’ll need another perfect start here, as he’s drawn between two who are quick out of the gate in Samraat and Danza. California Chrome been more successful when running outside in the clear, which he won’t be able to do here, so if you’re looking to play against him, this appears to be as good a shot as any.
Personally, my top choice is Uncle Sigh, whose sire Indian Charlie finished third in the Kentucky Derby back in 1998. After twice finishing a close second to Samraat in races where the latter held a tactical advantage, Uncle Sigh ran what was perhaps his best performance to date in defeat in the G1 Wood Memorial. Sure, he finished fifth in there, but he completely blew the break, giving up a good two lengths to the field, before settling off the pace, which he hadn’t done in any prior race. He often looked unfocused and despite having by far the widest trip in the field, he finished the race with interest. Based off that effort, I’m inclined to think the extra furlong won’t be an issue and he’ll wear blinkers for the first time here, with which he’s looked fantastic in videos of recent works. The only concern for Uncle Sigh is that the ground near the rail at Churchill Downs can be taxing at times, so he’s only playable if horses show an ability to work the rail path in races on the undercard.
Others to consider are Samraat, who as I previously mentioned defeated Uncle Sigh twice at shorter distances. He fought gamely to finish second in the Wood Memorial and is as gritty as they come. If the pace gets chippy early on, Dance With Fate and Medal Count, who finished 1-2 in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes, are viable options. Both of them will be switching from the all weather back to dirt, but they have each run respectably on the dirt in the past and should be closing late.
Selections:
1. Uncle Sigh (40/1)
2. Samraat (16/1)
3. Dance With Fate (20/1)
4. Medal Count (33/1)
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