Well, Saturday was a great day for us but we can’t bathe in
past glory forever – Sunday was disastrous, with 12/1 place money our only
returns of the day. In some cases I felt we were unlucky – in others we simply
had it wrong.
Our trends analysis got off to a bad start – Tapestry travelled
very well most of the way but stopped fairly suddenly towards the end.
Hopefully there is nothing wrong with her but it would seem likely that there
could be a problem. Lucky Kristale, meanwhile, was keen from the second she
burst out of the stalls and was never going to win when using up so much energy
early on. Whether she didn’t get the gallop she needs and therefore didn’t stay
the trip, or simply had a bad run is yet to be seen.
We have to move on, though, and with last weekend’s bank
holiday Monday cards being fairly poor, we find ourselves at Chester’s midweek
May meeting, on the day of the Chester Cup.
Chester’s an interesting track and there’s no doubt that
over the coming couple of days you will hear on many occasions about the famous
draw bias whereby unless your horse is drawn a low number, you theoretically
have no chance of winning. This is more relevant over shorter distances.
One interesting point regarding this is that horses running
from lower stalls are inevitably given a short price by the bookmakers and
heavily betted on by the punters. This means that there can often be little
value in backing a horse drawn in the very low stalls, while if you have a
horse running from a higher stall there can often be a bit of value in their
price.
Another interesting point is that the draw bias is only
really relevant over shorter distances – the Chester Cup, for example, is run
over 2m 2 ½f, and therefore the draw bias is much less relevant. However, this
is often overlooked by punters and odds compilers alike, meaning that there can
be a lot more value around the horses handed a higher draw, even if their
chances of winning aren’t much lower than those of the horses running from
lower draws.
Chester is a tight track with a short run-in and so horses
which tend to run prominently have a massive advantage in most races. Horses
held up at the back and waiting for their moment realistically have little
chance compared to those running prominently throughout.
Enough about the course, though – let’s move on to the
horses themselves, and on to the racing…
1.45 – Lily Agnes
Conditions Stakes – 2yo – 5f
The day’s racing begins with a 2yo race, which regular
readers will know I do not like betting in. However, it is a Channel 4 race so
I’ll give it a go, and most of these horses have had a run meaning that we do
have some starting point.
The favourite, Cheerio Sweetie, is a fast horse to say the
least and has gotten a good low draw today. She was impressive in winning on
her Lingfield debut and there was plenty to like about her follow-up
performance to come 2nd at Musselburgh last time out. It was Mukhmal
who beat her that day but he has been handed to widest draw of them all and so
Cheerio Sweetie looks set to reverse the form today.
The main danger looks to be stable mate Charlies Star, who
was 2nd in two maidens before dropping down in class to break her
maiden in a class 6 at Yarmouth. She showed a touch of class on her penultimate
start, however, when beaten by Kasb who was coming from the stable of John
Gosden, which was at the time in flying form. The race looks at this stage to
have been a decent one and so Charlies Star’s form is not to be underrated.
I can’t separate these two and with both at fair enough
prices, I’ll have a win bet on both, with guaranteed profits if either wins.
Cheerio Sweetie 5/2
Charlies Star 9/2
2.15 – Cheshire Oaks
– 1m 3f
This year’s Cheshire Oaks looks a difficult one to figure
out, with those at the top of the market providing a real headache for any
punter. I’m going to stay away from trying to pick the winner and opt for an
each-way bet at a nice price.
Secret Pursuit has 3f to find today, but this race doesn’t
often go to a horse proven over the 1m 3f trip. She has won her last two
starts, the first on the all-weather at Lingfield and the second at Nottingham
in a handicap on the turf. She is a massively progressive horse who has looked
all the better for her move onto turf and I would hope that she can deal with
the massive step up in class and in trip (both of her previous wins were in
Class 5 races over a mile). However, with Oisin Murphy on board, I think she
could step up her performance today and put in a big run. The confidence of
connections to throw her into a big race like this adds to my suspicions that
she could be one to follow.
Secret Pursuit E/W
22/1
2.45 – Chester Cup
– Heritage Handicap – 2m 2 ½f
The Chester Cup is one of the aforementioned races in which
draw bias has little effect on the race itself due to the long distance it’s
run over, but the bookies still slash prices on those drawn in lower stalls.
Mubaraza is proving a very popular favourite and looks a
likely winner but at less than 5/1 I feel there’s little value the 5-year-old. Not too far further down the
betting is Communicator, who represents a bit more value at 9/1, and is liable to
run a big race for the yard of Andrew Balding. Again, Oisin Murphy being
on-board and the 3lb allowance he brings with him is a massive bonus and with
success over both course and going in his favour, Communicator looks a decent
bet.
Clowance Estate 16/1 from the yard of Roger Charlton is
another who represents some value in the field. Both Charlton and jockey James
Doyle have been doing well of late, and although there are question marks over
whether Clowance Estate will stay the trip after seemingly failing to do so
when trying for the first time in the Caeserwitch, going and course will also
be in his favour today. He wears cheek pieces for the first time which make him
even more of interest and I can’t help but think that 16/1 could be too big for
him.
The other of interest in Montaser 18/1, but with three
failed attempts at even making the frame at Chester, conclusions will have to
be drawn that he doesn’t like it here and so is worth giving a miss.
Communicator E/W 9/1
Clowance Estate E/W
16/1
3.15 – Stellar Group
Cup – Handicap – 5f
It’s far from an easy handicap to finish off the day and it
sums up perfectly how tough a day this could be for the punter. I rated Rusty
Rocket and Fitz Flyer as having nice chances earlier on in the week but with
both given wide draws and the race being run over 5f, they will have to be
discounted.
The ones who were well treated by the draw and caught my attention
were Top Boy 8/1, Go Nani Go 11/2, and Red Baron 14/1.
The latter ran well last month, first to come 2nd
and Musselburgh and then to win at Doncaster, but he followed up with a
below-par performance at Thirsk last time out. He has real claims if he can get
back to his Doncaster form in a race which trainer Eric Alston has won twice in
the past. Very well treated by the handicapper, Red Baron is worth a bet at
14/1.
Of the other two, co-favourite Go Nani Go makes more appeal
and looks a nice each-way bet a 11/2. I will have to give Top Boy a miss for
today but will be sickened if he ends up winning!
Red Baron E/W 14/1
Go Nani Go E/W 11/2
As always, the very best of luck, and don’t bet more than
you can afford to lose.
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