The final day at Chester gave us small profits but not
enough to cover up the small losses from the first two days. With plenty of
racing today, there are plenty of opportunities to recover any losses left from
Chester.
1.50 Haydock –
Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle – Class 2 – 3m – Soft
This is a really tough race to start the day off and with a
long shortlist left, value will be the main priority when picking a bet.
Trackmate 16/1 hasn’t been seen since October, when he followed
up from an Aintree win in May with a win on
good ground at Cheltenham, over 3m 1f and 3m respectively. He has no
course form at Haydock, nor do most of the horses in the race, but with a
fantastic record both on left-handed and flat tracks, I expect him to love it.
Chasing a third win in a row today, he looks to be good value.
Meanwhile, at a massive price, Dolatulo represents the yard
of Warren Greatrex, who has been in great form over the past few weeks. Like
Trackmate, he has great form on this type of track despite never having run at
Haydock, and will also love the soft ground which should give him a decent
advantage over his rivals today.
Big Easy 15/2 and Firebird Flyer 14/1 were unlucky to miss
out on bets and are liable to run massive races today but with value in mind,
it will be Trackmate and Dolatulo who get the nod.
Trackmate E/W 16/1
Dolatulo E/W 33/1
2.05 Ascot –
Handicap – Class 3 – 1m 4f – Good to Soft
The favourite, Hamelin, was hugely progressive last year
over this trip last Autumn, winning his last two starts over a mile and a half,
in Kempton and Leicester in September and October. He simply kept getting
better in his four starts last season and if the progress can continue, he’ll
be the one to beat today. 5/2 looks more than fair.
The one to challenge could be Semeen, who has high potential
when he gets better ground than soft. If it stays dry at Ascot, he could run a
massive race and is worth an each-way bet. Meanwhile, Restraint Of Trade is the
one to watch, along with Al Saham at nice odds.
Hamelin 5/2
Semeen E/W 8/1
2.20 Lingfield –
Lingfield Oaks Trial – Listed – 1m 3f – Good, Good to Firm in places
The Lingfield Oaks Trial hasn’t supplied any winners for the
Epsom Oaks over the last while but with two of the seven winners which went on
to run at Epsom in the last ten years coming 2nd, it’s well worth
watching and taking note of any horses which catch the eye.
Today, it’s a tough race to dissect, and the favourite,
Casual Smile, is the one that everyone wants to be on. However, I’ll be opting
for an each-way bet on Kallisha at 9/1, who was noticeable when winning on her
debut in a Sandown fillies maiden in September. She ran on soft ground today,
and if she can bring as much to the table on a quicker surface today, she’s worth
an each-way punt.
Kallisha E/W 9/1
2.40 Ascot –
Buckhounds Stakes – Listed – 1m 4f – Good to Soft
Pethers Moon ran a fantastic race in the Jockey Club Stakes
at Newmarket last week on his 4yo debut and looks to have a bright season ahead
of him. He beat Gatewood (also running today) on his final 3yo start last
season and simply looks the one to beat here. 9/2 looks fair for a win bet, and
I’ll be going each-way if he drifts to 11/2 or longer. Elidor and Harris Tweed
deserve mentions, the former at a big price, but neither enough to convince me
to have a bet. I’m sticking with the favourite.
Pethers Moon 9/2
2.55 Lingfield –
Lingfield Derby Trial – Listed – 1m 3f – Good, Good to Firm in places
Sudden Wonder is a strong favourite here, having improved
for a step up in trip to 1m 2f last time out at Newmarket’s Craven meeting last
month. You would think that the good ground should be just another reason that
he can put in a big race, as he looks set to give ever more, considering the
step up to 1m 3f. It’s hard to oppose him today and 7/2 looks more than fair.
For an each-way bet, Hartnell is relatively unexposed on
good ground and I’d like to have him on my side going into the Derby Trial. He
was progressive throughout 2013, albeit on softer ground than today, and
connections gave reasons for his 5th on his seasonal debut – it wasn’t
actually that bad all things considered and I can see him possibly running a
big race if the ground does suit.
Sudden Wonder 7/2
Hartnell E/W 12/1
3.15 Ascot –
Sodexo Fillies Handicap – Class 2 – 1m – Good to Soft
Again, it’s really hard to stray from the favourite today
who is the obvious choice, with the experience behind her and everything
seemingly in her favour. She would be nap material if fillies weren’t so
unpredictable! She wasn’t good enough to beat Zurigha last time out at Kempton
when stepping up into listed company, but, back in a Class 2 handicap, she
shouldn’t really have any issues and should be a step above the field.
As mentioned, though, fillies can be unpredictable, and if
anything can take her on, it will probably be Feedyah (second favourite, 8/1)
or Dutch Rose 22/1. I’m sticking with the favourite and keeping an eye on the
other two.
Ribbons 6/4
3.30 Haydock –
Swinton Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 2m – Soft
It’s another tricky one for the 3.30 at Haydock, but a few
catch the eye as being well handicapped and with potential. Favourite Vibrato
Valavat is still available at 11/2, while 16/1 Songsmith and 20/1 Titus Bolt
make up the shortlist.
At 11/2, Vibrato Valvat looks a brilliant each-way bet,
after some fantastic performances of late, including coming 3rd in
the Imperial Cup at Sandown. Everything looks to be in his favour today, and
even if this is a tough handicap, 11/2 looks massive from Sportingbet, with
some firms down to 4/1 already.
20/1 is a nice price for Titus Bolt. It’s unknown what way
he’ll run today – he has been held up over 2m 4f on his last two starts but his
return to 2m could well see him return to his habit of making the running. He
produced a career best effort last time out to win a Class 3, and although he’s
taking a step up in class today, I’m very surprised at the price around him
this morning.
Vibrato Valvat E/W
11/2
Titus Bolt E/W 20/1
3.50 Ascot –
Victoria Cup – Class 2 – 7f – Good to Soft
3.50 Ascot –
Victoria Cup – Class 2 – 7f – Good to Soft
The Victoria Cup is one of the greatest cavalry charges and
one of the biggest headaches of the flat season. Everyone has their own method
for picking their horse in the Victoria Cup, varying from hours studying form,
to pins-sticking. It’s liable to be a tough one to figure out, but two stand
out to me:
The 14/1 favourite is Brownsea Brink, a very progressive
horse who has put in massive performances so far this season to come 2nd
over 7f in March and 3rd over a mile at Newbury in April. There were
worries that if the ground turned out to be soft, he wouldn’t handle conditions
well, but with any below par runs coming on definitely soft ground, while he
has never run on good to soft, I’m not overly worries about the going. He’s a
worthy favourite and still a nice price.
And, from the top of the market to the bottom – Dubawi Sound
50/1 who put in some fine races in defeat last year and has switched yards to
that of Hugo Palmer. His two runs so far this season have been good, and
although they were both on good ground, he has put in some of his best
performances on softer going. He is liable to have improved since last year,
and so he’s worth an each-way bet at a massive price – after a 65/1 winner last
Saturday, a 50/1 winner this week would be a great way to really get the flat
season going!
Brownsea Brink E/W
14/1
Dubawi Sound E/W 50/1
As always, the best of luck and don’t bet more than you can
afford to lose.
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