Thursday, 15 May 2014

York Day 3 Preview & Selections

Yesterday gave slight profits for us at York thanks mostly to Ambivalent’s win, covering our stakes for the day and returning a little bit extra. However, it still wasn’t what we would be hoping for and we’ll definitely be aiming to go better today.

1.45 York – Marygate Stakes – Listed -   5f


A 2yo fillies race to start the day off, and this is as far from ideal as could be. Two-year-old races are bad enough for betting as it is, and with the added unpredictability a filly brings to the table, this is not where we want to be placing our money. However, we will have a look anyway.

It’s a hard one to narrow down – all those around the top of the market are of interest as well as a few down towards the bottom of the market. The pick of them, though, seems to be 13/2 shot Sarista, coming from the in-form yard of David Barron. She has just two runs to her name but both showed her as having huge amounts of speed at her disposal. Admittedly, both of these races were run on firm ground, but horses by Kodiac have a decent record of 35% win/places on good to soft, and if she can follow suit, she will be well able for this field today.

Sarista E/W 13/2

2.00 Newbury – Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial Stakes – Listed – 1m 2f


This isn’t actually part of the Dante meeting but is being shown on Channel 4 so we’ll give a brief preview and two selections in the form of Hadaatha 5/2 and Lahinch Classics 17/2.

The former was impressive when winning on her debut at Newmarket over 7f, and with breeding suggesting she will want a longer trip than that, she looks likely to improve today over a mile and a quarter. She faces tougher opposition, though, and it won’t be particularly.

One who may be of interest at a nicer price is Lahinch Classics 17/2. She wasn’t visually impressive when winning last time out on the all-weather at Dundalk but still unexposed and with breeding potentially on her side, I’m not happy to write her off in today’s race.

Hadaatha 5/2
Lahinch Classic E/W 17/2

2.15 – Jorvik Handicap – Class 2 – 1m 4f


This is an interesting race and it’s probably worth trawling through the bottom half of the market for value – Itlaaq 11/1 is of interest but maybe worth giving a miss, in favour of two at longer odds.

Duke Of Clarence is available 22/1 with BetVictor at the moment and that looks like value for a horse who has run to a consistently high standard for the majority of last season, with the results usually going his way in terms of at least a place. He was last seen at Chester last week and didn’t run a great race but we can take nothing really from it, except for concluding that he doesn’t stay a longer trip. Therefore, we can discount this run and have an each-way bet in the hope that he will get back to form over his preferred shorter trip.

The other is also at nice odds – Kashmir Peak is as short as 14/1 in places but still 22/1 with BetBright. He normally runs well on flat turf but has disappointed since last seen in such a race last October – since then he has run disappointingly in two handicap hurdles and come close on a number of occasions on the all-weather over the winter – he came 2nd three times in a row in January and February. We’ll see him in a hood for the first time today, he should like the cut in the ground and past performances would suggest that he’ll be suited to the track (he was unplaced on his one previous start at York).

Duke Of Clarence E/W 22/1
Kashmir Peak E/W 22/1


2.45 -  Duke Of York Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 6f


This one is really hard to figure out and I’m finding it hard to separate the two at the top of the market. Tac De Boistron is currently holding on to favouritism as a result of an impressive seasonal debut at Ascot over 2m last time out. The ground should suit and he has beaten Cubanita (third in today’s market) easily in the past.

Slight preference has to go, though, to Gospel Choir, winner of the Jockey Club Stakes on 2000 Guineas day two weeks ago. Behind him that day were Pethers Moon (who since ran a good race to come 2nd behind Gatewood at Ascot last weekend) and Trading Leather (who admittedly ran keenly). Sir Michael Stoute’s yard are in great form (5 wins and another 7 places from 25 runners in the last two weeks) and Gospel Choir looks like he will stay the trip – he looks the pick of them at 9/2.

Gospel Choir 9/2

3.15 – Michael Seely Memorial Stakes – Listed – 1m


It’s another fillies race now, and so I’ll just have one bet – Folk Melody 13/2 was short on luck before running on well in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket last time out and shouldn’t be discounted today for the in-form yard of Charlie Appleby. She is entered into the Oaks, the Ribblesdale Stakes and the Coronation Stakes and so seems to be highly thought of by connections. At 13/2, she looks a nice each-way bet today.

Folk Melody E/W 13/2


As always, the very best of luck and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.

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