The less said about yesterday, the better. A terrible day
for us at York with very little to be happy about going into Dante Stakes day.
However, today could be slightly more interesting on the betting front, with a
couple of horses looking overpriced throughout the day. It was a tough day
yesterday and today could follow suit with unexpected winners – be cautious.
1.45 – Betfred Supports
Jack Berry House Handicap – Class 2 – 5f
Obviously, these big-field sprint handicaps are never going
to be easy to get your head around, but there are two which jump out as being
value among this field of 20.
Magical Macey is available now at incredible prices of 22/1
with Betbright, and it’s hard to understand why after he gave two of the best
runs of his career in this race the past two years. Although he may be seen
running to his best on a flat track, he should love the softer ground (even if
it is drying out) and the price has to be considered value. We would hope to
see him in form after he signed off last season with a decent 5th in
a similarly big handicap – as long as he is fresh he could easily outrun his
odds.
Secret Witness is also 22/1 at the moment, and in this case
the price is more understandable considering the horse’s inconsistency over the
past season. It’s clear that on his day, Secret Witness can beat some decent
horses, but the problem is that we don’t know whether or not he will run back
to 2012 form today. Though hard to predict, he’s still worth an each-way bet at
22/1.
Making the shortlist is Long Awaited who is surely close to
winning a race like this one soon – but we’ve said that a few times before and
16/1 isn’t as much value as the other two.
Magical Money E/W
22/1
Secret Witness E/W
22/1
2.15 – Middleton
Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 2f
Back we go to the unpredictable fillies, so yet again we’ll
be careful in this race – don’t bet big. Thistle Bird is a decent favourite at
7/2, but I would be keen to take her on, and Ambivalent could be the one to be
on. All the rage in the market so far, she lost narrowly in this race last year
and went on to win the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh, putting in a
great effort that day topped only by her run to come 3rd at Meydan
last time out. Her consistency in the two runs between those two would make her
a solid each-way bet, but after real market support, 9/2 is the best we can get
and so it’s a win bet.
Ambivalent 9/2
2.45 – Dante Stake
– Group 2 – 1m 2f
We’ve done our trends analysis on this one which can be seen here.
True Story is the hugely popular favourite, and with the
ground now seeming to be drying out significantly, it’s looking like he should
run and be well able for the conditions. He entered the notebook as having been
hugely impressive following an easy victory when breaking his maiden at
Newmarket last time out, and it would be a surprise to see him being beaten
today.
There is still an each-way place up for grabs, and Arod
looks the most likely to take it at a decent price. He looked like he could be
a smart horse when winning a maiden at Windsor the last time we saw him, and if
he handles the step up in class he could run very well today.
True Story 8/11
Arod E/W 12/1
3.15 – Hambleton
Handicap – Listed – 1m
Another handicap to finish off the day for us at York but
not as big a field this time, with twelve due to go to post for this year’s
renewal of the Hambleton. It’s a tough one to figure out, with a shortlist of
four – Queensberry Rules 7/1, Fury 6/1, Fort Bastion 7/1, and the one that gets
the bet – Ingleby Angel 15/2.
He produced a sure career best when coming 2nd
over the mile at Thirsk on good ground when last seen two weeks ago, following
up from consistently good performances over the second half of last season.
With a particular liking for a left-handed track having been treated well by
the handicapper coming into this, he looks a nice each-way bet to finish off
the day.
Ingleby Angel E/W
15/2
As always, good luck and don’t bet more than you can afford
to lose.
No comments:
Post a Comment