Sunday at Leopardstown and Longchamp brought small profits
despite more crossbars being hit, following a lack of luck on Saturday. This
week we have three days of top quality midweek racing with York’s Dante
Festival beginning today and bringing with it some great entertainment to liven
up what is normally a quiet day on the racing front.
Today’s racing is decent but not easy to figure out or get
an angle on, and it’s not going to be an easy day. There doesn’t seem to be
much value about the fields with the exception of one or two cases and it’s
unlikely to be a day that will make us a fortune. Still, there is televised
racing and some interesting prospects taking to the track, so it’s more than
worth taking a look.
1.45 –
StanJames.com Handicap – 1m 2f – Class 2
Big fields are good to see and we should never discount any
horse when a race is this unpredictable. However, the favourite is Rye House,
who seems to have everything in his favour. Sir Michael Stoute has won this
race twice in the past and has real claims to add to that tally in 2014, with
Rye House a course and distance winner at this same meeting last year, also on
soft ground. He showed his ability to win in style, his liking for the course,
and that he runs well after a break on that occasion and he looks like the most
exciting prospect coming into the race. I was hoping for more of a price about
him than 7/2, but realistically he is the most obvious choice – although the
race will be unpredictable, it’s hard to fault him.
Four-year-olds have done well in this race over the past few
years, winning 5 of the last 6 renewals and filling up the places last year,
when the race was won by a 5yo. Only three run this year, and with Pasaka Boy
of little interest, David O’Meara’s Grandorio and JJ Quinn’s German raider
Tahira are the two which make up the shortlist. 30/1 is a massive price for the
latter who has solid form in Germany but to whom the handicapper hasn’t been
helpful. Although the weight might not be a massive worry, preference has to be
for Grandorio who should like the soft ground and has course form. If there’s a
non-runner from either of our two selections, Tahira 30/1 is an each-way bet.
Storm King makes up the shortlist.
Rye House 7/2
Grandorio E/W 12/1
2.15 – Infinity Tyres
Handicap – 6f – Class 2
As the day goes on, the races don’t get easier, but with
four each-way places on offer again in the second contest of the day, value is
the name of the game. Again, we can’t discount anyone, but those of most
interest are located towards the top of the market. Lancelot Du Lac is the
current favourite but there are still prices of 10/1 to be taken which I think
is definitely fair. His consistency last season in these sprints was
commendable and there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t keep up that form
today.
As a second bet, Royal Rascal is probably even more
interesting in my opinion despite not having shown anything close to the level
of consistency for which today’s favourite was known towards the end of last
season. He won the listed Rockingham over this same course and distance as a
2yo. Both of his starts last season were hugely disappointing but his decent
performance to finish 6th last time out signalled that he may be on
his way back to his juvenile form and he’s well worth a punt on this basis. I
was hoping for a bit more value than 11/1, but those are the prices on offer
and we’ll take them.
Lancelot Du Lac E/W
10/1
Royal Rascal E/W 11/1
2.45 – Musidora Stakes
– 1m 2f – Group 3
Cambridge is popular in the Oaks betting at the moment, due
to the fact that she’s bred to stay and was impressive when beating Regardez at
Nottingham last Autumn. However, she’s well worth taking on today on soft
ground and I think that second in the market, Queen Of Ice 5/1 is the one to
oppose with.
Queen Of Ice takes a big step up in class today but ran well
to win in a Class 4 on her debut, and her progress was obvious when next seen
in April of this year, winning a Class 2 at Kempton over the mile. She takes a
step up in both trip and class today, but with improvement clear so far, she
looks like she can continue to go in the same direction and overcome a much
tougher challenge today.
There is each-way value in the field also. 16/1 seems to me
to be a massive price for Eastern Belle, considering that John Gosden has won
this race twice in the last three years. She showed real potential so far when
running in three Newmarket maidens to come 3rd, 2nd and 2nd
and looks to be going in the right direction. She isn’t yet up to this standard
but the hope would be that the longer trip over which she is completely
unexposed could bring more from her.
Queen Of Ice 5/1
Eastern Belle E/W
16/1
3.15 –Duke Of York
Stakes – 6f – Group 2
It’s a really tough sprint to end the day with the top two in
the market both holding serious claims. With little to find between them, it
has to be Moviesta that gets the vote – the Group 2 winner was last seen on
2000 Guineas day, running a great race to come close in the Palace House Stakes
at Newmarket. A course and distance winner in these same conditions last year,
he was promising when 5th on his seasonal debut and could easily
have come on for the run – he looks like he could have the edge on the
favourite today and is a solid each-way bet at 6/1.
As for something with a bit more value, I’m surprised to see
that Body And Soul is 14/1 after a decent run in a listed race in Nottingham
last Saturday. He may have a bit more to find taking a step up in class but he
has talent and place claims.
Moviesta E/W 6/1
Body And Soul E/W
14/1
As always, the very best of luck and don’t bet more than you
can afford to lose.
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