Dante Stakes Trends Analysis

Although both of our 1000 Guineas hopes disappointed (Tapestry travelled well and stopped suddenly, suggesting a problem with the horse, while Lucky Kristale ran keenly and possibly didn’t stay the mile), our trends analysis hasn’t had a bad start, all things considered  - fillies races didn’t tend to go our way last year either, while big fields also weren’t to our liking.

6 runners will go to post for the Dante Stakes at York today, though, and it’s of much more interest. True Story is the strong favourite, but this analysis was known to predict unusual, yet correct, outcomes last season – who knows? If you don’t understand how the trends analysis works, I would advise you look back at the 2000 Guineas trends analysis, where we explain it in more detail.

Stall

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	3	18%	6	35%
2	17	1	6%	5	29%	6	35%
3	17	3	18%	5	29%	8	47%
4	17	5	29%	2	12%	7	41%
5	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
6	15	3	20%	2	13%	5	33%

Based on the past 17 years, we can't exclude any of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6.

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	60	13	22%	13	22%	26	43%
Second	17	2	12%	4	24%	6	35%
Third	11	1	9%	3	27%	4	36%
Fifth	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
Sixth	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%
Seventh	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Tenth	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Anything that came 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th or 6th picks up points here.

Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	18	6	33%	5	28%	11	61%
2	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
3	18	3	17%	3	17%	6	33%
4	15	4	27%	6	40%	10	67%
5	19	1	5%	3	16%	4	21%
6	14	1	7%	1	7%	2	14%

The top 4 in the market will all receive points.

Recent Form

4. 10 of the last 10 winners had 2-5 career starts

5. 10 of the last 10 winners made their debut over 7f or further

6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m or further

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Arod	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Bunker	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Odeon	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
Saab Almanal	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	4
The Grey Gatsby	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	3
True Story	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6

The shortlist:

1.       True Story 8/11, Arod 12/1

And, unfortunately, because True Story is odds-on, it’s yet another no-bet race for our trends analysis.