Well, the 2000 Guineas yesterday left a slightly bitter
taste in the mouths of some. With the field quickly splitting into two separate
groups, one on the stands rail and one racing up the far side, the race was
very tough to analyse and, it could be said, asked more questions than it
answered.
Night Of Thunder ran a stormer considering he veered left
towards the end, leaving serious ground to make up but still finishing better
than any other horse in what was a talented Guineas field. Kingman ran a decent
race and it’s very possible that he and Night Of Thunder could dominate the
mile division this year.
Aidan O’Brien’s Australia arguably ran the best race of them
all, switching groups, running without cover and still finishing strongly to
take third in what was a tight finish. It’s hard at the moment to see what will
beat him in Epsom in a few weeks, and although we won’t be backing him ante
post at the prices, he looks a Derby horse in the making.
Congratulations if you followed our advice and backed Night
Of Thunder at 65/1 after the Greenham last month – days like yesterday don’t
come around too often so we should enjoy them when they do. A 65/1 winner is fantastic, but it
means little if we can’t keep it up today, on what is a tough day of racing at
Newmarket. Even apart from the Guineas itself, we had a decent day, with a 12/1
winner in the first setting us up nicely for what was to come.
Mentions should go yesterday to Sole Power, who ran a
fantastic race in the Palace House Stakes, switching out to the far side of two
or three horses towards the end, a brave decision by Jame Moore which paid off
and made the run even more impressive considering he was left with ground to
make up. Kingsgate Native ran a great race in 2nd and looks just as
good as a 9yo as he has in past years, while Hot Streak ran creditably against
his elders and is one to watch this year.
Absolutely So ran a decent race in a 7f handicap at Goodwood
yesterday – as soon as he hit the front, he looked like he had loads more in
the tank and nobody was going to catch him. The Victoria Cup has been mentioned
for him but I get the idea from him that he could have more to give over
further.It actually took Oisin Murphy about 2 minutes to pull him up after the
race, and he’s a horse I’ll be keeping an eye on this year.
Pether’s Moon ran a great race on his 4yo debut, Brass Ring
ran well most of the way for John Gosden – he has a big long stride and we
could see him going places. Meanwhile, over at Punchestown, Abbyssial walked
past a very strong field in the Four Year Old Hurdle, including both the Triumph
Hurdle winner and that of the Anniversary 4yo Hurdle at Aintree. In fairness, a
lot of the field looked like they were feeling the effects of a long season but
that’s to take nothing away from Abbyssial.
Anyway, on to 1000 Guineas Day and on to the racing…
2.05 – Qipco Supporting
British Racing Stakes (Handicap) – 1m 4f – Class 2
The day begins with a mile and a half handicap in which Café
Society is 5/1 favourite. He was a very promising horse last season who improved
towards the end of the year, having been lightly raced and fairly unexposed. He
should like the ground today and the market signals are good, having been
backed from 11/2 into 4/1 in places.
Van Percy might show a bit more value at 7/1. Like Café Society,
he is well treated in the weights, with Oisin Murphy on board brining a 3lb
allowance with him. He is 3lb higher than on his reappearance which was probably
on a par with his best runs last season, when he put in some great performances
in defeat. He has placed on both his starts on good to firm ground and is the
only horse in the field who has won on firm ground. His stable is in fine form
and Oisin Murphy has just put in some fantastic rides so far this season. My
only worry for Van Percy is that I’m not sure he’s suited to a track such as
Newmarket, but I hope he can answer these fears today. At 7/1, he’s a solif
each-way bet.
An honourable mention goes to Viewpoint who, at a big price,
has a lot in his favour but a 7lb rise from his latest all-weather start, and I
would rather go for something not carrying much weight – Van Percy it is, then.
Van Percy E/W 7/1
2.40 – Dahlia Stakes
– 1m 1f – Fillies Group 3
Integral represents Sir Michael Stoute, who has won five of
the last seven renewals of this race, and she’s probably the best horse in the
field based on her last run, coming 2nd to Sky Lantern over this
course last September. She progressed nicely last season, and although I see
this as being a fairly tight affair, I’m still debating whether or not 6/4 is
value about this worthy favourite.
The other of interest is Zurigha, fourth in last year’s French
1000 Guineas (when Esoterique finished 2nd). In contrast to
Esoterique’s disappointing form since then, however, Zurigha has won two listed
races since, at the end of last season at this track and the start of this
season in Kempton. She takes a step up in class but it will be very interesting
to see how she does at Group 3 level.
It could be a tough race and definitely an interesting one –
if Esoterique finds form, she will be a real contender, while Gifted Girl
progressed well last season and is now down in class. However, I’m going to
stick with a win and an each-way bet, on Intergral and Zurigha.
Intergral 6/1
Zurigha E/W 7/1
3.10 – Havana
Gold at Tweenhills Handicap – 6f – Class 2
A 20-runner 6f handicap is one punter’s nightmare and
another’s dream, but it’s admittedly not easy for anyone. These so-called “lotteries”
are not races which you can pick a winner in every day, but if you’re not in
you can’t win and so it’s worth giving it a go!
Yeeoow 14/1 comes from the yard of Kieran Burke which is
currently in flying form. He won off this same mark at Ascot last year and
although his subsequent performances have been up and down, his last run last
month at Pontefract to come 3rd was a decent performance where he
stayed on well at the end and looked to be back to his old ways. Despite being
unpredictable, Yeeoow is capable of plenty and with the yard in good form and
the ground in his favour, he’s worth a bet at 14/1.
The other to catch my eye is 100/1 shot Go Far. Firstly, I would
point out that he is a 100/1 shot so don’t go putting your life savings on him!
Most of his runs have been on the all-weather, having had only four starts to
date on turf. All four of these have been on good to firm ground, and he placed
twice, leaving no real worries over the going. His optimum distance on the
all-weather has been 6f, and although we don’t really know how he’ll do coming
on to the turf over the same trip, I’m surprised at his odds and think that he
does have some sort of place claims. He has also got a decent record of two
wins and two places from 6 runs with blinkers, which he will wear again today.
Yeeoow E/W 14/1
Go Far E/W 100/1
3.50 – 1000 Guineas
– Group 1 – 1m
The second classic of the year at Newmarket and the feature
race of the day as the best fillies over a mile compete for the 1000 Guineas.
Unlike yesterday’s 2000 Guineas when it was fair to say that all of the best
milers were present, there are a few horses unfortunately missing today.
A 1000 Guineas is never easy to pick the winner of, and we’ve
used our unique trends analysis to help us along. I would advise you take a
look at the trends analysis itself here.
Tapestry should be quick enough for a Guineas but should
have no trouble staying if the stiff Rowley mile. She will like the fast
ground, she was unlucky at the Curragh and she looks a serious horse.
As for Lucky Kristale, the real question is whether or not
she’ll stay up the Rowley mile and after watching her runs from last year a few
times, I think that she will. She impressed on more than one occasion last year,
including ran on well to beat Rizeena last July over 6f. If she does stay
today, she has a massive chance.
Aside from these, the most likely winner is surely the
favourite, but the other who stands out to me at a big price is Vorda 16/1. She
is another for whom the only question is over whether or not she’ll stay, but
if she does, she will be a big player today.
As mentioned, if you’d like to see further insight into the
race, I’d suggest you read the trends analysis, as well as Andy Cummins’ 1000
Guineas preview and picks.
Trends Analysis Bet:
Tapestry (E/W) 9/1
Trends Analysis Bet:
Lucky Kristale (E/W) 10/1
Vorda E/W 16/1
The very best of luck for today and remember not to bet more
than you can afford to lose.
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