My name is Andy. I am seventeen years of age and live in Dublin Ireland. I have a strong interest in racing. I am a fan of the breeding side of the game as well and I have recently started writing short pieces on upcoming racing. Some feedback would be wonderful and I can be contacted via my twitter (https://twitter.com/Handy_Andy96) or by email on andrewcummins96 @ gmail .com
Thank you for your time,
Andy
One of the most eagerly anticipated races of the British Racing calendar, The Qipco 2,000 Guineas raises the curtain for The British Champions Series and is also the first Group 1 of the season in the UK.
Like every other year this is an eagerly awaited renewal of the race with the leading protagonist being Kingman. The John Gosden trained colt is generally around the even money mark for the race and was extremely impressive when winning the Greenham Stakes at Newbury three weeks ago. However there may be more chinks in his armor then one may think. For a start the Rowly mile at Newmarket will take some getting and being by Invincible Spirit, in my opinion I don’t think Kingman will see out a mile as well as some of his opposition. However his dam Zenda did win the French 1,000 Guineas and one will argue the mile will be no issue. The ground will most likely turn up good to firm. John Gosden has expressed his concerns about this already. I believe Kingman is too short at even money with these question marks over his head, however I would not put you off him, he has the right to be favourite on what he has shown us. If you were to back him I would leave him SP as I cannot see him getting any shorter on the day.
The Ballydoyle duo of the impeccably bred Australia and last season’s Dewhurst winner War Command pose a great threat to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a seventh victory in the race. Australia was a Group 3 winner at two when winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile trial at Leopardstown on Champion Stakes day, a race he won very impressively, his pedigree screams Epsom as Galileo and Ouija Board won the Derby and Oaks respectively and questions are drawn to whether he has the speed for the 2,000 guineas. Galileo has sired only one (English) 2,000 Guineas winner and that was the freak that is Frankel. I believe Australia will have to be very special indeed to win such a race. There is no doubt his best work will be towards the end of the race. As for his stable mate War Command, I can see this classy colt going very close. His dam (Wandering Star) won a group 2 in Woodbine in Canada over ten furlongs so the mile should not be an issue. 14/1 (Boyles Sports) is a great each way proposition and I think he is the more likely of the Ballydoyle duo to be first past the post.
Rookie trainer Richard Hannon Jr is mob handed in pursuit of his first Group 1 and first classic as a trainer, he saddles Shifting Power (Generally a 33/1 chance) who won the European Free handicap at the Craven meeting at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Night of Thunder who is between 20/1 and 25/1 for the race was a remote second to Kingman in to Greenham Stakes, however if Kingman turns out to be a proper machine this colt could be closer then some may think. He beat everything comfortably in the Greenham bar Kingman, so possibly strong supporters of Kingman may opt to also back Night of Thunder each way as his price is appealing. Hannon’s main contender is the champion two year old colt of last year Toormore. Toormore was the winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood when he just edged out Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Outstrip and he also landed the National Stakes at the Curragh when seeing off Phoenix Stakes winner Sudirman. His Craven win was workmanlike but it was his first run of the season and he was conceding three pounds to the whole field. I believe this was an excellent showing and his credentials are stronger with a course and distance victory under his belt. I think his form is top class and 6/1 is a very tempting price.
Roger Varian saddles Racing Post trophy winner Kingston Hill who also represents the first crop of Mastercraftsman in the classic. I personally cannot fancy him as the Racing Post Trophy looks to have been below par but all Kingston Hill can do is beat what is put before him and in fairness he is unbeaten. The ground could also be a concern as Kingston Hill has never encountered anything quicker then good to soft. Kingston Hill is a general 10/1 chance.
Noozoh Canarias will make history of being the first Spanish trained horse to run in the 2,000 Guineas, he is not there to make up the numbers either with an excellent second in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last October.
The good to firm ground also makes me fancy Outstrip at a big price. The Breeders Cup Juvenile winner will love the quick ground and at 25/1, in my eyes is an insane price for a Group 1 winner. This is a decant each way bet as his two defeats to rivals Toormore and War Command were on good to soft ground and there is every chance it can be reversed with a faster going.
My selection for the race is Toormore as his form seems the strongest and he is guaranteed to see out the mile. The ground and trip puts me off Kingman. 1/1 just seems far too short for a horse that may not like that ground, I expect him to run a decent race though. War Command and Outstrip will not be disgraced either at bigger prices.
• 1st – Toormore (6/1)
• 2nd – War Command (14/1)
• 3rd – Outstrip (25/1)
Stay tuned to the blog this weekend for more from Andy as he previews the 1000 Guineas and both Saturday and Sunday's support cards.
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