Day two at Newmarket is headed by the Qipco 1,000 Guineas. The first British classic for fillies of the season. It is quite a tougher conundrum to solve on a punters point of view then the colt’s comparison. The market is headed by Rizeena. She is a daughter of the rejuvenated Iffrajj who had an excellent year last year. He was also the sire of the former guineas favourite, the ill fated Chriselliam, she had a victory over the now favourite Rizeena in the fillies mile and also put in a breath-taking display at the Breeders Cup Juvenile fillies race in Santa Anita last November. Sadly we lost a top filly in the off season and her absence from the race is a real shame.
The show must go on and the best place to start is the market leader Rizeena. The Clive Brittain trained filly won four of her eight starts last season including the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh. She is best priced at 7/2 to win the race but there are many chinks in her armour. For a start she has already been beat four times but in her defence she is a very tough filly who has never ran a bad race. Her Moyglare triumph is the best form in the race but even her second in the fillies’ mile was a slowly run race and the Guineas will be a totally different ball game. She deserves to be favourite on her juvenile form but I would not be rushing to take 7/2. Her dam won once over seven furlongs and her sire Iffrajj was a top class sprinter. We may see Rizeena burning out as she comes to the closing stages on Sunday.
Another filly who comes into the guineas with a leading chance but has stamina questions is the extremely talented Lucky Kristale. Trained by George Margarson, her only defeat was behind Rizeena in the Queen Mary Stakes but she reversed that form in the Dutchess of Cambridge stakes at Newmarket next time out although Rizeena had a three pound penalty that may have cost her. Lucky Kristale is by Lucky Story and out of a Pivotal mare. That pedigree screams speed and I simply cannot see her staying a mile. However if she does stay the mile she will be a massive threat. George Margarson has been very upbeat in recant interviews about her chances and he is confident she will stay. Its absolutely crucial she settles with cover in the early stages or else there is no hope she will stay the mile. Lucky Kristale is available at around 8/1 for the Classic.
Tapestry for Aidan O’Brien looks set to be the more fancied runner for the Ballydoyle and Coolmore outfit this year. The filly by Galileo out of the Group 1 winning Rumplestiltskin gives the perfect blend of sped and stamina which will suit the Rowley mile absolutely ideally. She is on the wrong side of the Moyglare form with Rizeena but that is not a huge worry as it was a messy race. Its rare for Aidan O’Brien to only saddle one horse in a race such as this and this race is no exception as Bracelet will also take her chance in the field. Possibly a surprise runner in the field as there was an extreme drift on her on the exchanges during the week which prompted her likely withdrawal at the declaration stage, but now anyone that laid her at a big price during the week may be regretting it as she has an electric turn of foot for a daughter of Montjeu, this comes from her dam Cherry Hinton who was by top sprinter Green Desert and is out of Urban Sea. This also makes her a very close relation to the likes of Galileo and Sea The Stars. Her group 3 Leopardstown win on her reappearance when the yard was off to a slow start for the season makes me believe this filly is seriously above average, however the quick ground is an unknown but if she handles it we could see a wonder filly on our hands. Bracelet is a 10/1 chance.
France are well equipped for an assault on the 1,000 Guineas this year as Andre Fabre and Philippe Sogorb saddle Miss France and Vorda respectively. Miss France won the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket last year by just seeing off Lightning Thunder who re-opposes in the Guineas, these two were well clear of the field but the third in that race Sweet Acclaim was sold to America and ran very credibly in a grade 3 to give the form some boost. Her reappearance this season (in which Vorda finished second) can be excused as she travelled at the back and was caught for a turn of foot as it turned into a total dash off a slow gallop. She has a very lively chance of pulling a victory off and I would be very surprised if she was not at the business end of proceedings. Miss France is currently an 8/1 shot. There is every chance however that Vorda could well be the dark horse of the field. She is 16/1 which I find incredible as she won the Cheveley Park Stakes and finished ahead of Rizeena in the Darley Prix Morny at Deauville. I think it is likely she will stay the mile and if you disregard her Breeders Cup run were she was trapped wide the whole way around she has been very consistent. I think she is very appealing and a super each way bet.
Three other fillies that catch the eye are Ihtimal for Godolphin who improved leaps and bounds over in Meydan on the Tapeta, she won the May Hill at Doncaster as well and is around 8/1. She will need to improve again however. Sandiva was the winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes on her reappearance and will have ground in her favour. The Richard Fahey trained filly will need to improve again and has a little bit to find with Kiyoshi who will benefit from the likely quick gallop. There was a relentless gallop when she ran off with the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot so impressively. If she has matured and cut out her antics of hanging under pressure we could see this talented filly taking the Guineas. The Charles Hills trained and Qatar Bloodstock owned filly is best priced at 16/1.
Prediction:
I believe this race will be won by Tapestry as she looked a classy individual last year and was a shade unlucky in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh which was won by Rizeena and she will like the good ground. I would have preferred her stable partner Bracelet however the quick ground concerns me. If she acts on the ground she will absolutely fly up the Rowley mile. Group 1 and course winner Vorda is dangerous and Kiyoshi will run with a quick gallop to aid her.
• 1st Tapestry 6/1
• 2nd Vorda 16/1
• 3rd Kiyoshi 14/1
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