2.05 – Aston Park
Stakes – Listed – 1m 5 ½f
This is an interesting race featuring a few horses we’ve
been waiting to see again and a lot which are in with a decent chance. Mount
Athos missed Chester when we were backing him and he runs in a lower grade of
race today, making him the favourite. He has a nice chance but is far from
unbeatable here. Brass Ring ran well in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket,
putting a good long stride to use from the front – it would look like he’ll
have a good season ahead of him, but there could be better competitors today.
Batallion probably is of most interest at short odds after
impressing on his seasonal debut at Ripon last month over a mile and a half –
at the time, we would have thought he was a definite group horse this season.
However, he loves a slight cut in the ground (he’s three from three on good to
soft) and is unexposed over this longer trip, an area where breeding posing
questions. It will be no great surprise to see him win, but he’s worth taking
on too.
Preference, then, goes to 6/1 shot Forgotten Voice for the
yard of Nicky Henderson. There are questions marks over whether he will stay
the trip today also, but this will be more down to how he runs, and you would
think that Frankie Dettori will know exactly how to ride him to get him to
reach his potential. He will love the ground which is drying still – the quicker,
the better for Forgotten Voice. 6/1 seems a great price for a solid each-way
bet to start the day off, as long as he isn’t too keen.
Forgotten Voice E/W
6/1
2.20 Newmarket –
Triconnex Handicap – Class 2 – 1m 6f
This is a hard one to find value in, but instead of going
through the pros and cons of those at the top of the market, I’m siding with a
value each-way bet. Blue Wave 16/1 is hardly the most likely winner but is a big
price considering how promising he looked before the start of the season, in
January and February. It was downhill from there and he didn’t perform nearly
as well on turf for the first time in a while at Ripon last time out on softer
ground over 1m 4f.
There are doubts over how far he’ll stay – in my opinion,
the jury’s out on that one and I’m not willing to write off his staying
abilities just yet. He actually did beat De Rigeur on that day, who is 9/1 today.
Both seen in better light on all-weather than turf. It’s fair to say that we
would be quicker to back Blue Wave on the AW but I think that fast ground could
see him run a decent race on turf – it’s a longshot, but probably a better
option than picking one at the top of the market, in a race where anything
could happen – Van Percy is the type of consistent horse I would love to back
at an each-way price and would normally be a bet, but it would have to be to
win at 3/1, and I’m giving him a miss today.
Blue Wave E/W 16/1
2.40 Newbury –
Handicap – Class 2 – 7f
This should be a really interesting one to watch, and a lot
of horses from the race could go on to do big things this season. Bronze Angel
ran fantastically on his first appearance in blinkers and connections are
hoping he’ll get back to winning ways today, but 7/2 is far too short and I
actually don’t fancy him at all today. Monsieur Chevalier ran well on his reappearance
and the handicapper has been kind to him, you would think.
Making the shortlist are Sir Reginald 11/1, who has been
below par recently but could easily bounce back to form in conditions that he
should like, and Fort Knox 8/1, who has won at a higher level both in Ireland
and the UK and could easily put in a big run today – he should also like the
conditions. Preference goes, though, to Indignant, who hasn’t been done any
favours by the handicapper but has all in her favour today. She will excel on
the quickly drying ground, she has placed at Newbury before and everything says
that she should love it here. The Hannon yard is in form and there aren’t many
who ride at Newbury as well as Richard Hughes (a 44% win/place rate). I’m
surprised to see that Racebets are still 7/1 on her and she has to be the bet.
Indignant E/W 7/1
2.55 – King Charles
II Stakes – Listed – 7f
I’m between the top two in the market on this one, and
finding it hard to find anything between them. Parbold ran a decent race over
course and distance in the Free Handicap, coming 5th of 6 but still
running well. Aeolus came a close 3rd that day and could easily have
won. This quickly progressive horse from the yard of Ed McMahon is very
progressive, and if that progress continues, I’m going to have to back him here
ahead of Parbold. It was really a toss-up between the two, but Aelous gets
slight preference.
Aeolus 7/2
3.15 Newbury –
London Gold Cup – Class 2 – 1m 2f
Another interesting race here with a few in with a chance,
but attention turns to a 1m 2f race at Sandown last month, where Windshear
fought out a thrilling finish with Collaboration.
Both run today and we could easily see a repeat of such a
finish, with Windshear looking like the pick of the lot. Collaboration also
looks to have major chances but would prefer softer ground, while Satellite is
the other interest but we will give him a miss at 4/1. Windshear, on the other
hand, has everything in his favour – he should do well on the quicker ground, everything
would suggest that he’ll love Newbury, and again, Richard Hughes could prove to
be the man to have your money on at this track.
Windshear E/W 9/1
3.30 Newmarket –
Coral Sprint – Class 2 – 6f
This race looks likely to go to Roger Charlton, who saddles
the top two in the market, probably the two of most interest, Stomp 7/2 and
Stars Above Me 5/1. Stars Above Me has a decent 2nd over course and
distance to his name after running well last time out, but preference goes to
Stomp who is improving constantly and looks to be in with a massive chance
today. He has been given an extra 8lb but 5lb of that is taken off thanks to
jockey Joey Haynes, and although there isn’t much value about him, he’s our
pick.
Although Stars Above Me is probably second-best, there is
value in the market for 22/1 shot Meritocracy – far from a consistent horse, he
has run well on his day and is capable of producing a performance that will
beat any horse in this field. There’s no guarantee that he will bring this
talent to the table today, but there is a chance, and 22/1 is a nice price.
Stomp 7/2
Meritocracy E/W 22/1
3.50 Newbury –
Lockinge Stakes – Group 1 – 1m
We did our trends analysis on this one, which you can see here, and it gave us two bets: Montiridge e/w at 15/2, and Verrazano e/w a
11/2. Odds have changed now but are still backable each-way, with the former
down to 6/1 and the latter out to 7/1.
Montiridge E/W 6/1
Verrazano E/W 7/1
As always, the very best of luck and be sure only to bet
what you can easily afford to lose.
I would suggest that you bet with Bet365, who have a whole host of offers for shrewd punters to take advantage of, especially on days like today. Competitive odds (guaranteed to match or beat those of Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral and others on Channel 4 races) and special offers (back a winner at 4/1 or more in a Channel 4 race and get a free bet to the same stake in the next), they are sure to help us to make more money from our betting. You will receive a matched first deposit when you sign up to the sum of €200 or £200, which should cover a lot of stakes - you can sign up for an account here, by clicking here and then signing up in the top left-hand corner.
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