It has been an exciting and fascinating four days of racing
so far to finish off the Irish National Hunt season at Punchestown, and the
final day of the festival today, with the Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle taking
centre stage, while excitement also builds around the appearance of Annie Power
in the 3.45.
The place to be today, however, is in Newmarket, the home of
the race horse, as the British Champion Series kicks off in style with the
first Classic of the season, the 206th running of the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
This year’s renewal truly is a fantastic one, with the depth and strength of
the Guineas field just getting better each year.
There are some quality races on the support card too, and
with Guineas weekend one of the most popular events of the flat season, it’s
sure to be a great day of racing. We’ll be previewing all of the action, but
first, a few links:
It’s easy to get caught up with the racing on this side of
the Atlantic Ocean today, but don’t forget that the most exciting two minutes
in sport, the Kentucky Derby, is run at Churchill Downs tonight. The fantastic
Candice Hare has written her race preview and made her picks for The Parade
Ring, which you can view here.
Andy Cummins has written his brilliant 2000 Guineas preview,
as well as the horses to look out for on today’s support card. Some interesting
runners seem to be going under the radar today, and his Guineas picks are
available at nice prices this morning, so I would strongly suggest that you
give those a read.
Our trends analysis did fantastically next year, and we’re
starting it properly this weekend with the 2000 Guineas. Unfortunately, the
race turned out to be a no-bet race, but it’s well worth seeing what the
analysis picked anyway to help you narrow down your Guineas field.
Now, on to the racing…
2.05 Newmarket –
Suffolk Stakes
Rock Choir is the 8/1 favourite in the opener on Guineas day
and the 4yo actually still looks like value in a tough race to get the day
started. He showed what he was capable of last year on his listed debut at
Salisbury over 10f, and although he ran slightly below that standard to finish
4th and 5th on his subsequent outings, both also in
listed races over 10f, he could easily be back to his best over a furlong less
today. His full sister Chorist was a grade 1 winner and improved as she got
older, and it would be no surprised to see Rock Choir really find form as a
4-year-old this season.
He has never failed to place on four appearances with a hood
(winning on two of these occasions) and sports the headgear again today.
William Haggas has had 7 winners from 15 runners over the last 2 weeks which is
top form, and Rock Choir could easily keep up that fine form today.
Elsewhere in the market, Pricewise selection
Niceofyoutotellme still looks a decent bet despite his price being smashed in
to 12/1 due to Segal tipping him. He carries slightly more weight than on his
prior wins, which came over a furlong and two furlongs longer today, but
today’s 1m 1f won’t be an easy one, so I don’t think the trip will be too sharp
for him. He was very disappointing on his last outing over this course and
distance, finishing 21st of 25 last September, but he carried 9-10
that day compared to 8-8 today. He has serious place claims.
Rock Choir E/W 8/1
Niceofyoutotellme E/W
12/1
2.40 –Palace
House Stakes
Hot Streak was the best juvenile sprinter last year and just
improved throughout the autumn, topping off the season by finishing a close 2nd
in a 6f grade 1 at Newmarket behind Astaire. This may well be his toughest test
yet – there are only two 3yos in the race (the other being rank outsider
Extortionist). Although most of Hot Streak’s form is on softer ground than
this, he is one win from one run on good to firm and it is this fast ground
that could be the undoing of plenty of his rivals.
His age or inexperience is not enough to write him off today
as many seem to be doing, and at 6/1, I’m going to play it safe with an
each-way bet in a really competitive race – Moviesta, Pearl Secret and Stepper
Point all look in with a chance and if you were looking for value, a small
each-way bet may be the latter may be on the cards. I’m going to stick with Hot
Streak here, though, as it’s not an easy betting race.
Hot Streak E/W 6/1
3.10 – Jockey
Club Stakes
This is perhaps the toughest race of the day to break down
if you want to look past the favourite and search for value. Trading Leather is
the evens favourite and the most obvious bet, and last year’s Irish Derby
winner does look like the most likely winner on good to firm ground from the
stable of Jim Bolger which has a 21% win strike rate over the past 14 days, the
best of any trainer in the race. He has been fantastically consistent as a 3yo
and there’s no reason to believe he shouldn’t run well today as long as he’s
fresh after 238 days off the track.
It’s hard to see where the value is elsewhere in the market,
but I would expect this to be a closer race than the betting suggests and it’s
a tough one to call the places in. Renew, Brass Ring and Gospel Choir all look
to have their chances and with no value in backing the latter each-way at 4/1,
it’s between Renew and Brass Ring for an each-way bet. The former has never
failed to place on good to firm ground, nor has he ever failed to place at
Newmarket, and ran creditably on his reappearance in Dubai two months ago.
There are three places to be filled and so in the name of value I’ll back renew
each-way at 25/1.
Trading Leather EVENS
Renew E/W 25/1
3.50 – 2000 Guineas
This year’s 2000 Guineas is a remarkably competitive race,
and Kingman is a worthy favourite after a stunning display in the Greenham
Stakes over 7f at Newbury. Experts of the breeding will suggest that he won’t
be able for the stiff Rowley mile, with his sire having never won over further
than 6f. He is out of Zenda who was a French 1000 Guineas winner, but it’s important
to remember that the Rowley mile is a stiff mile and not an easy test for a
horse who struggles to stay the mile. With John Gosden also having expressed
concerns over fast ground, and with Kingman’s motion sometimes looking unusual,
I’m keen to take him on today despite a fantastic performance in the Greenham.
Australia is out of Galileo and has been hyped up by
Ballydoyle since last year, but he has had some issues coming out of the stalls
which may cause him to lose ground which he can’t afford to lose in a 2,000
Guineas. His breeding suggests he is more of a Derby horse and 3/1 doesn’t
represent much value in my book. I’ll have to give him a miss – although he
does seem to have speed, I suspect that it’s over a longer trip that I’ll be
backing Australia.
Toormore was last year’s Champion 2yo and his form was superb.
They say that the Guineas is the final race of the 2yo season (meaning that
juvenile form is the most important aspect coming into a 2000 Guineas) and if
this is true, Toormore is the one to be on. Some described him Craven Stakes
win as workmanlike, but he looked to me like he had more in the tank and was
holding back. I think he has lots more to give, and there is absolutely no
question that he’ll stay up the Rowley Mile. I can only say that I’m shocked at
his price of 9/1 this morning and he’s my main Guineas bet.
Of course, there are three places to be filled and there’s
definitely value further down in the field. Spanish raider Noozhoh Canarias
looks a potential bet at 25/1, as does Roger Varian’s 14/1 shot Kingston Hill.
Both seem to have everything in their favour but I’m going to side with
Kingston Hill and just have one each-way bet as I would be in no way surprised
to see Toormore and Kingman fill up two of the three places (Toormore and
Kingman battling out the finish in a 2000 Guineas – how exciting would that
be?!)
We had an ante-post each-way bet of Night Of Thunder at 62/1
after the Greenham and I’m happy enough with that considering that he’s 40/1 this
morning and although connections seem unsure about the fast ground, he could be
underrated.
So, it will be Toormore as the main selection, with Kingston
Hill each-way. I wouldn’t put you off a Kingman/Toormore Rev. Forecast, while
an honourable mention goes to Noozhoh Canarias and we’ll sit tight on our ante-post
betting slips for Night Of Thunder.
Toormore E/W 9/1
Kingston Hill E/W
14/1
(Option
Toormore/Kingman Rev. Forecast)
Punchestown Bet: 4.20, Champion Four Year Old
Hurdle
The Punchestown Festival reaches its end today and I’m going
to have one last bet – Tiger Roll at 2/1 in the 4.20 will be a festival bet
(the others were Faugheen and Jezki (both won) and Trifolium each-way,
unplaced).
Tiger Roll 2/1
Enjoy Guineas day and the very best of luck. Remember not to
be more than you can afford to lose.
Note: Possible extra
bet to be added later in the 5.00 – watch this space just in case.
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