Summer Jumps Trainer To Follow

The last hurrahs of jumps racing both in Ireland and England are behind us, with plenty of top National Hunt heroes on display at both Punchestown and Sandown, topping off another great season for the sport.

The Newmarket Classics are already gone, as are the first of the Classics in France, whilst the big handicaps at the weekends signal that the best flat horses are now returning to the racecourse in all their glory.

It comes as a bit of an anti-climax, perhaps, for those who prefer their racing with obstacles. The unpredictability of the jumps and their ability to magnificently display all aspects of the equine skillset can leave some racing fans lost when it comes to the flat, which is in my opinion equally exciting, but a very different sport.

Post-Sandown, National Hunt racing is, in the main, undesirable and uninteresting. You may argue against that fact – the Swinton Hurdle and Pertemps Long Distance Hurdle were two decent handicaps which took place at Haydock inside the second week of May. There is, though, no denying the fact that we are unlikely to see the real heroes of jumps racing again until next Autumn.

There are, however, some trainers who like to exhibit their best horses around the summer months of June, July and August. Although the racing is of a lower class and definitely less competitive, particular trainers just seem to prefer it. Some, in fact, do quite well during these months.

I’ve picked out one trainer who sends his horses out during the months of June, July and August, and does quite well in doing so, in the hope of not only picking out a few winners this summer, but making consistent profits.

Peter Bowen

Peter Bowen has had a fantastic season in 2013/14, with profitable figures of so far this calendar year. His win strike rates haven’t quite been up to the standard of previous years, but that’s of no worry to us as it’s during the summer that these strike rates shoot up. This year has seen one of the best days for the stable in the recent memory, with Al Co winning the Scottish National at Ayr from massive odds for Bowen , possibly his biggest victory since his glory days in the Topham Chase with Always Waining.

Bowen’s record in the summer is hugely impressive, and last year was probably his best ever, with 33 winners and another 24 places from 100 runners in June, July and August last year, and giving a profit of +31.03pts to level stakes at SP’s.

Admittedly, that was his best summer in a while, but his wine strike rates of 20%, 19% and 22% in 2012, 2011 and 2010 respectably are very creditable and the 29.5pts profit in the latter year is to be noted. As for win/place strike rates, they haven’t dropped below 35% since 2007.

One theory on why Bowen’s horses do so well in the summer would be that they tend to perform better on better ground. Indeed, this theory holds up when we narrow down the criteria to races run on ground that’s good to soft or better (including good to yielding). With this added criteria of going, Bowen has spent only five of twelve summer months outside of profit in the last four years. This may not sound that impressive, but we can narrow it down even more… four of those five months were August.

If we eliminate August and focus solely on June and July, Bowen has been in profit every year since 2008 – when he was just 1pt in loss. Not only have his strike rates been impressive, but they’ve also been fairly progressive – 2010: 25%, 2011: 26%, 2012: 24%, 2013: 37%. We would have been in huge profits of 35.45 last season and we would have to go back to 2010 to find a month in which we didn’t make profits (and 2008 if we discount that one “freak” month).

With Bowen’s performances so solid, I would feel confident backing his runners alone. There is potential to expand the system by including the runners of Lawney Hill, who is also a summer specialist. However, her sample size isn’t as large as that of Bowen’s and so we would a) not be betting on as many horses and b) not be as confident of profits.

Therefore, we will this summer be backing all of Peter Bowen’s runners in National Hunt races (this includes NHF races, aka bumpers) to level stakes, beginning on June 1^st, provided the ground is good to soft (includes good to yielding and standard to slow) or faster.

I’ll add a separate page to keep track of these runners and hopefully we can gain some nice profits by the end of the year! Here’s a full analysis of the system’s performance over the last few summers:

Year	Runners	Winners	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%	Profit/Loss
2013	76	28	37%	19	25%	47	62%	35.45
2012	50	12	24%	13	26%	25	50%	6.5
2011	80	21	26%	16	20%	37	46%	17.68
2010	84	21	25%	24	29%	45	54%	42
2009	57	9	16%	15	26%	24	42%	18.37
2008	68	7	10%	17	25%	24	35%	-1
2007	30	4	13%	6	20%	10	33%	-16.87
2006	60	16	27%	11	18%	27	45%	47.18
2005	59	10	17%	17	29%	27	46%	-21.83
2004	32	7	22%	8	25%	15	47%	3.28