1.45 - Earl Grosvenor Handicap - Class 2 - 7 1/2f
A few horses have defied the infamous draw bias at Chester in the first two days of this year's May meeting, even in shorter races, and so, although the draw should still be taken into consideration today, it has been shown again that the draw isn't the be all and end all. A selection from a high draw can often have a bit of value (as described in the day one post) and so can often be worth a second look.
Such is the case with our selection in the opener today - Balty Boys has been popular in the betting so far, yet BetVictor are holding onto their long odds of 14/1, which looks like serious value to me in a very open handicap. He ran very badly in this race last year but picked it up next time out to place over 6f at Yarmouth, and this was the beginning of a season of fantastic consistency over 6f, 7f and a mile.
His bad performance last year doesn't give any worries in terms of having a lack of form on what is a unique course at Chester - he put in perhaps his best run of the season here last September, finishing a very close 2nd in a Class 3 handicap over this same distance. He is yet to win from five runs since switching yards to that of Brian Ellison, but the standard of his runs haven't dropped in the slightest, and with cheekpieces on for the first time today, he could improve again to the off the mark for his new trainer.
He ran on very well at Haydock last time out to finish 5th and if he can keep up this form today he will have a serious chance.
Balty Boys E/W 14/1
2.15 - Dee Stakes - Listed - 1m 2f
Mark Johnson's Somewhat is just holding on to favouritism for the Dee Stakes at the moment, but is facing stiff competition in the market from both Century and Kingfisher. This is a tough race to call but the former looked like one to follow when winning his maiden nicely at the Curragh last year over a mile on soft ground. He disappointed last time out when last of 11 runners in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, and it's hard to tell whether we should avoid him after that run or simply conclude that he won't perform on good ground.
Either way, he's unexposed and not to be ignored, back on good ground in a race with no reliable horses to back - he looks the pick of the lot.
Century 10/3
2.45 - Ormonde Stakes - Group 3 - 1m 5 1/2f
A small field for this year's Ormonde Stakes, but a decent one, no doubt, with the five horses all due to go to post with some sort of chance. Brown Panther was last year's Goodwood Cup winner and is in with a massive chance if able to reproduce that form. Hillstar has put in some creditable runs over the past while including a 3rd in the King George, and is also certainly not to be overlooked. Banoffee has course form, having won the Cheshire Oaks last year, and Jathabah has shown potential to be a decent horse despite recent form being poor.
It's Mount Athos who gets the nod, though, with last year's winner returning at 7 years of age as the oldest horse in the field. His last two runs at Meydan were of a fine standard (even if he came 8th in the latter) and 3rd in the Melbourne Cup is a serious achievement. He should handle the good to soft ground well as long as there is no more rainfall between now and race time.
Mount Athos 9/4
3.15 - EBF Stallions Handicap - Class 2 - 5f
I'm actually not convinced by the favourite here, Fine Cut, who drops back in trip to 5f today and looks worth taking on. The two who seem capable of doing so are the next two in the betting - course specialist Blithe Spirit and in-form See The Sun.
The latter has been raised 3lb as a result of a career best effort last time out to come 2nd over 6f, and although he was impressive on that day, I'm more interested in Blithe Spirit who loves Chester and whom if reproducing last year's form at the track should run a massive race.
Blithe Spirit 10/3
Note: If any of the win bets drift to 6/1 or longer, back them each-way. Best of luck and don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
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