2.05 Haydock
Although fillies have a reputation for being unpredictable,
in 4yo+ fillies races on the flat the favourite won 51% of the time last year.
So far in 2013, only 28% of favourites have won in such races, and so there are
mixed messages around whether we should be backing the favourite in races such
as this one. Today’s favourite is Astonishing from the yard of Sir Michael
Stoute, and although she has some class when conditions suit, she is likely to
be up against it today. Completely unexposed on soft ground and having never
won after a layoff of longer than 30 days, she is well worth taking on at 3/1
and shortening, and two stand out at nicer prices.
Moment In Time 7/1
was last year’s winner of this race, and although she hasn’t managed to pick up
a win since then, her runs have been to a decent standard for the most part and
she has put in a few good performances. She has placed on all three of her past
starts at Haydock and slower ground shouldn’t be an issue – she has won on soft
ground as well as having placed on heavy. After a few runs at Meydan over
further, she drops back to a mile and a half today and to what I feel is her
ideal trip. She looks a nice each-way bet.
The other of interest with value in mind is Silk Sari 14/1.
She will have to bring more to the table today than she has on her past five
appearances, but she has been progressing steadily since her maiden last June
at Kempton and the soft ground should suit. She looked like one to watch when
winning nicely last time out at Doncaster earlier on this month and it’s good
to see her running up in class this time. It’s yet to be seen whether she will
be good enough to take on these rivals today but she looks like value and is
worth a punt.
Moment In Time E/W
7/1
Silk Sari E/W 14/1
2.40 Haydock
This is a tougher race at Haydock with at least half the
field looking to be in with a good chance. A case can be made for most of
these, not least the favourite Garswood who failed to see out the mile on his
seasonal reappearance, but in whom connections should be confident as he
returns to 7f and softer ground. However, in a tough race, I won’t be lumping
on at 7/2 and so the quest for value continues.
Penitent has been a star for David O’Meara’s stable and the
superb young trainer will surely think that 18/1 is a big price today for a
horse who loves soft ground. However, preference for an each-way bet goes to
Breton Rock 15/2 (Sportingbet) who beat Custom Cut, another resident of O’Meara’s
yard, over course and distance a few weeks ago on similarly soft ground, and
looks like he could run a big race here today if he can put in a similar
performance. That last run was probably a career best and if he continues to
progress in the style he has been, he is liable to give opponents with shorter
prices a run for their money today.
Breton Rock E/W 15/2
3.15 Haydock
Again a tough race to narrow down, with Steps and Swan Song
of massive interest to take on favourite York Glory. Steps is probably the pick
of the two, with plenty of market support for Roger Varian’s charge. He looked
like one to watch after winning a listed race at Ascot last October. He didn’t
quite live up to expectations on his subsequent two starts but looked to be
going in the right direction when 3rd at Newbury last month on soft
ground. He has been unsuccessful on two starts at Haydock but has picked up two
wins and another three places on good to soft ground, a very strong statistic which
will give supporters confidence today. He’s worth a bet at 9/2.
Meanwhile, 7/1 could be a bit of value for Move In Time who
is a very good sprinter when running to his best, but hasn’t been seen since
last July. He won easily at Musselburgh last year after 136 days off the track
and if he’s back and ready, he could put in a good run today. He is liable to
have a few cobwebs to be shaken off, but still looks a contender.
Steps 9/2
Move In Time E/W 7/1
3.50 Haydock
The top three in the market all have claims here – Parbold seems
to be highly thought of by connections, having been entered in the Irish 2000
Guineas and with an entry also in the St James Palace Stakes. Aeolus is good on
his day but I’ll give him a miss today too. Shamshon is probably the pick of
the top three, having won easily at the Dante meeting at York despite drifting
terribly in the market prior to the race. However, soft ground is a worry and
so the attention of most turns back towards the favourite.
Although this is considered by some to be a three-horse
race, I would cautiously have a go at an each-way bet, and at 16/1 Ben Hall
just about fits the bill for value. He’s a decent horse on his day for whom the
soft ground could also be a slight worry. However, I would hope that a move to
Mike Murphy’s yard may have brought about the small bit of improvement and some
consistency which will be needed to win today. It’s a longshot but worth a bet,
despite there only being 2 each-way places on offer.
Ben Hall E/W 16/1
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