Irish 1000 Guineas Trends Analysis

Things look to be on the up for our trends analysis, picking the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas yesterday at an admittedly short price, but also 2^nd and 3^rd from two bets in the Temple Stakes, both at each-way prices. So far this season, we would have done better when following last year’s methods of backing any horse at 4/1 or more each-way, but as a lot of people have asked to see how the analysis performs with win-only bets, we will keep a record using both methods.

Last season, and indeed so far this year, the trends analysis has proven not to do as well in fillies races – the Newmarket 1000 Guineas gave no return this year, while last year we failed to pick the winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas, the Epsom Oaks, or the Irish Oaks at the Curragh. However, the idea of the trends analysis is to cover major races (with the exception of those with particularly large fields – it’s debatable whether this year’s 1000 Guineas at Newmarket should have qualified), and so we have run it past today’s Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh.

Stall

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	4	24%	7	41%
2	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
3	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
4	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
5	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
6	17	2	12%	2	12%	4	24%
7	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
8	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
9	15	2	13%	1	7%	3	20%
10	15	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
11	14	1	7%	0	0%	1	7%
12	12	1	8%	2	17%	3	25%
13	13	1	8%	2	15%	3	23%
14	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%

We'll be looking out for horses running from stalls 1-4, as well as 6, 7, 9, 12 and 13.

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	74	6	8%	12	16%	18	24%
Second	36	2	6%	5	14%	7	19%
Third	28	2	7%	3	11%	5	18%
Fourth	23	0	0%	3	13%	3	13%
Sixth	14	2	14%	2	14%	4	29%

We will give points to horses who came in the top 2 or 6th last time out.

Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	5	29%	5	29%	10	59%
2	19	1	5%	3	16%	4	21%
3	18	1	6%	3	17%	4	22%
4	16	2	13%	3	19%	5	31%
5	19	2	11%	3	16%	5	26%
6	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
7	18	2	11%	2	11%	4	22%
8	15	2	13%	3	20%	5	33%
9	13	0	0%	3	23%	3	23%
10	26	1	4%	3	12%	4	15%
11	7	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	13	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
13	22	0	0%	1	5%	1	5%
14	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We'll keep an eye on the favourite, and 4th, 6th, 8th and 9th in the market.

Recent Form

10 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f+

9 of the last 10 winners had run once or twice that season

8 of the last 10 winners had either won or placed in a group one race

8 of the last 10 winners ran in the past 21 days

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Lightning Thunder	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Queen Of Power	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Al Thakhira	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Heart Focus	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	No	1
Avenue Gabriel	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	3
Palace	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	4
Wonderfully	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
My Titania	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
Vote Often	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Ballybacka Queen	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Marvellous	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Tested	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	6

So, we have our joint winners:

1.       Lightning Thunder 4/1, Tested 6/1

And our bets (either using last year’s e/w methods or not)

0.5pts e/w on Lightning Thunder @ 4/1 – Irish 1000 Guineas

0.5pts e/w on Tested @ 6/1 – Irish 1000 Guineas

Or, if we were using win bets only, just swap the points for “1pt win” on each selection.

As always, the very best of luck. Remember only to bet what you can afford to lose (or preferably less!) and never to chase your losses. Bet sensibly and responsibly, and hopefully profitably! Enjoy.