Sunday, 4 May 2014

1000 Guineas Trends Analysis

Our trends analysis was a no-bet for the Guineas yesterday, and thankfully so because it didn't pick the winner - Kingman came 2nd while Toormore didn't place. However, it wasn't really missed by followers of the blog, as we did back the 40/1 winner ante-post at 65/1 after the Greenham last month! It was a brilliant day for The Parade Ring and its followers, and hopefully you were on.

 Moving onwards, though. The first classic of the year threw up a big surprise and the 1000 Guineas is the race with more of a reputation for shock results out of the two. However, our trends analysis doesn't always side with the short-priced favourite, and rightly so: it managed to pick the winners of both the English and the Irish Derby last year, overlooking an evens favourite in both occasions.

So, what will it give us for the 1000 Guineas? Unfortunately, its record in fillies races last year wasn't nearly as strong as with the boys, but we'll battle on and try to keep it going! It's hard to trust a filly with you money at he best of times, but who knows what will happen? As for the analysis itself, if you don't know how it works, it's explained in yesterday's 2000 Guineas trends analysis.

Stall


Stall
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
17
0
0%
2
12%
2
12%
2
17
1
6%
1
6%
2
12%
3
17
1
6%
4
24%
5
29%
4
16
1
6%
1
6%
2
13%
5
17
0
0%
3
18%
3
18%
6
17
2
12%
0
0%
2
12%
7
17
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
8
16
1
6%
2
13%
3
19%
9
17
2
12%
3
18%
5
29%
10
17
1
6%
1
6%
2
12%
11
17
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
12
16
0
0%
1
6%
1
6%
13
16
1
6%
3
19%
4
25%
14
14
0
0%
4
29%
4
29%
15
16
0
0%
1
6%
1
6%
16
10
2
20%
1
10%
3
30%
17
9
0
0%
1
11%
1
11%
18
7
1
14%
0
0%
1
14%
19
4
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%

The stall numbers we’re focusing on are 3, 5, 6, 9, 13, 14, 16, 18.
This year, number one and number thirteen in the draw are non-runners and so all of the numbers above them will be moved down to fill their places, if that makes sense. Obviously, we can’t make adjustments for late non-runners, but it’s better if we do when possible. So, we have for the early non-runners. We’ll hope that there aren’t any more.

Place Last Time Out


Place LTO
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
No Run
24
1
4%
4
17%
5
21%
First
112
10
9%
15
13%
25
22%
Second
46
2
4%
5
11%
7
15%
Third
30
0
0%
2
7%
2
7%
Fourth
21
3
14%
2
10%
5
24%
Fifth
8
0
0%
2
25%
2
25%

Top 2, 4th and 5th are the places we would like a horse to have come on their last outing.

Market Position


Mrkt Pos
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
18
5
28%
4
22%
9
50%
2
18
1
6%
1
6%
2
11%
3
17
1
6%
6
35%
7
41%
4
22
1
5%
3
14%
4
18%
5
13
1
8%
2
15%
3
23%
6
18
4
22%
3
17%
7
39%
7
23
3
13%
2
9%
5
22%
8
13
0
0%
2
15%
2
15%
9
20
1
5%
3
15%
4
20%
10
11
0
0%
2
18%
2
18%
11
25
0
0%
2
8%
2
8%
12
17
0
0%
1
6%
1
6%
13
18
0
0%
1
6%
1
6%
14
15
0
0%
1
7%
1
7%
15
9
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
16
11
0
0%
1
9%
1
9%
17
6
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
18
8
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
19
3
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%

We’re going to focus on the first, third, fourth, sixth, seventh and ninth in the market.

Recent Form


8 of the last 10 winners posted a Racing Post Rating of 105 or higher last time out
9 of the last 10 winners had won a listed or group race
9 of the last 10 winners won or placed on their first turf start as a 2yo
9 of the last 10 winners had run at least 3 times as a 2yo
9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more wins
10 of the last 10 winners had won over 6f-8f

The Big Table


Horse
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
Bracelet
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
6
Ihtimal
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Miss France
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Manderley
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
3
Tapestry
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
9
Rizeena
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
8
Majeyda
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Sandiva
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Lady Lara
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Betimes
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
3
Euro Charline
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
3
Lightning Thunder
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Lucky Kristale
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
9
Pincess Noor
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Joyeuse
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Lamar
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Vorda
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
8

So, our shortlist:
  1.        Lucky Kristale, Tapestry
  2.        Rizeena, Vorda


Now, you may remember that last year we used to back anything at odds of 4/1 or longer each-way. It has been suggested on Twitter numerous times that we eliminate each-way betting from the analysis, so we’re going to keep track of profit/loss both ways.

We’ll never have a bet in a race if the trends analysis gives us three or more runners, because we don’t want to stake more than three points on a race, and we will also never have a bet with two runners unless we can be guaranteed profit if either of them wins. (ie, there ill be no betting on two horses if one is an evens shot.)

So, using the old methods, today’s bets would be:
“0.5pts e/w on Tapestry @ 9/1, 0.5pts e/w on Lucky Kristale @ 10/1”
Or, if we were tp eliminate each-way betting it would be:
“1pt win on Tapestry @ 9/1, 1pt win on Lucky Kristale @ 10/1”


The very best of luck and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose. If 2014 is anything like 2013 was for the trends analysis, we’ll be delighted!
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