Irish 2000 Guineas Trends Analysis

It has been a year since we first began using our trends analysis to analyse Britain and Ireland’s top flat races – in that space of the time, the methods have been tweaked, the qualified races narrowed and the final results varied. Indeed, changes are still constantly being made to the analysis to help maximise profits and minimise losses. This year hasn’t had a great start; a few non-bet races, and a loss overall, has put us in a worse position than we were at this time last year, when we were starting from scratch. However, this analysis did manage to pick the winner last year, with Aidan O’Brien’s 3/1 shot Magician providing us with the first of many successes over the course of the season.

12  months later and here we are – now under more pressure with losses to recover. But, it’s back to the same first race to get us back on track – the Irish 2000 Guineas. And if we can get a result like last year’s we won’t be complaining.

Stall

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Plae%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
2	17	2	12%	1	6%	3	18%
3	16	4	25%	4	25%	8	50%
4	15	4	27%	2	13%	6	40%
5	17	0	0%	5	29%	5	29%
6	16	1	6%	7	44%	8	50%
7	16	1	6%	0	0%	1	6%
8	13	1	8%	3	23%	4	31%
9	11	1	9%	1	9%	2	18%
10	9	0	0%	1	11%	1	11%
11	7	0	0%	3	43%	3	43%
12	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%
13	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14	1	1	100%	0	0%	1	100%

So, according to data from the last 17 renewals of the race, we should take note of horses which run from stalls 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12 and 14.

Place Last Tim Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	50	8	16%	10	20%	18	36%
Second	25	0	0%	5	20%	5	20%
Third	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
Fourth	24	1	4%	8	33%	9	38%
Seventh	7	1	14%	0	0%	1	14%
Eighth	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Ninth	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We're going to look out for horses which came in the top 2 or 4th on their last appearance.

Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	18	5	28%	7	39%	12	67%
2	17	3	18%	6	35%	9	53%
3	16	3	19%	5	31%	8	50%
4	19	4	21%	3	16%	7	37%
5	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
6	19	2	11%	2	11%	4	21%
7	13	0	0%	2	15%	2	15%
8	16	0	0%	3	19%	3	19%
9	9	0	0%	1	11%	1	11%
10	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%
11	8	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

It's the top 4 in the market that we'll be interested in.

Recent Form

10 of the last 10 winners had 4-7 career starts

10 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that season

8 of the last 10 winners had run over 7f or 8f

8 of the last 10 winners had won a group race

9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 in a group one race

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Total
Kingman	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	8
Mustajeeb	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	6
Prince Of All	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Dolce N Kamara	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	3
Big Time	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	3
Shifting Power	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	7
Great White Eagle	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	4
Mandatario	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	No	No	1
Obliterator	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	3
War Command	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Fountain Of Youth	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	3
Michaelmas	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	3
Johann Strauss	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Davids Park	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	4

So, we have our shortlist:

1.       Kingman 4/5

2.       Shifting Power 10/1

And, our bet:

1pt win on Kingman @ 5/4 – 3.20 Curragh – Irish 2000 Guineas

The very best of luck, and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.