Inevitably, the usual ten-year trends can be exhausted around big races such as this one, sometimes to the point where any value they may have led to in the market has disappeared by the time we get there. We will be doing our normal trends analysis for the race - after all, it did pick out the 7/1 winner last year - but it can be useful to take a different angle and look at the race from a slightly different perspective.
Therefore, I've handpicked a few other stats regarding which trainers, jockeys and stallions have been most successful over the past 10 years not only in the Derby, but in any race run under similar conditions - ie, all races run over a mile and a half at Epsom. These stats account for all races since the beginning of the 2004 calendar year.
Trainer
There are no fantastically strong trends here but of those with Derby hopefuls in 2014, one trainer in particular does stand out:
| Trainer | Runners | Wins | Win% | Places | Place% | Win/Place | Win/Place% | P/L |
| Andrew Balding | 13 | 3 | 23% | 2 | 15% | 5 | 38% | 10 |
Jockey |
A few more jockeys stand out than trainers, most notably:
| Jockey | Runners | Wins | Win% | Places | Place% | Win/Place | Win/Place% | P/L |
| Kieran Fallon | 19 | 5 | 26% | 2 | 11% | 7 | 37% | 11.25 |
| Jamie Spencer | 30 | 7 | 23% | 4 | 13% | 11 | 37% | 15.75 |
| Seb Sanders | 19 | 4 | 21% | 4 | 21% | 8 | 42% | 40.75 |
| Ryan Moore | 40 | 8 | 20% | 7 | 18% | 15 | 38% | 8.5 |
| Eddie Ahern | 17 | 2 | 12% | 6 | 35% | 8 | 47% | -8.5 |
| Richard Hughes | 29 | 4 | 14% | 9 | 31% | 13 | 45% | 11.25 |
| Tom Queally | 11 | 1 | 9% | 4 | 36% | 5 | 45% | -5 |
| William Buick | 17 | 2 | 12% | 5 | 29% | 7 | 41% | -2.67 |
Stallion
Unfortunately, of the stallions we would be looking out for, only two have progeny in the remaining 17 entries in the race.
| Stallion | Runners | Wins | Win% | Places | Place% | Win/Place | Win/Place% | P/L |
| High Chaparral | 11 | 2 | 18% | 3 | 27% | 5 | 45% | 20.5 |
| Galileo | 63 | 10 | 16% | 8 | 13% | 18 | 29% | 19.25 |
What Does It Mean?
It's unknown yet who will ride which horses, and so it's hard to really know where to go with the data as of yet - we will revisit this later. However, there are some things we do know.
Andrew Balding will run Impulsive Moment in the race next Saturday.
Western Hymn will be the only representative of the progeny of High Chaparral, while the race will feature a few horses by Galileo - notably Australia, as well as Impulsive Moment, Kingfisher and Orchestra.
Finally, Kieran Fallon is the only one of our jockeys with a confirmed ride at the moment - that will be on True Story.
Our Ante-Post Derby Outsider
Having made big profits when selecting this year's 2000 Guineas winner as our sole ante-post bet at 65/1, we're back to attempt to have an ante post bet in this year's Epsom Derby.
Admittedly, there is nothing which stands out as massive value as much as Night Of Thunder did three weeks prior to the Guineas, but at a massive price, it is worth taking a look at Andrew Balding's sole runner in the race, Impulsive Moment 100/1.
Although David Probert didn't make our shortlist as being one of the most successful jockeys over the mile and a half at Epsom, he does love the track, with a 50% win/place record there from 76 rides. He also shows 90pts of profit to level stakes when backing him on Balding's horses and so I'm not worried about backing a jockey who has never before ridden a horse in the Derby.
I'm going to take a chance on the long shot with an each-way bet at the 100/1 currently on offer from Bet365, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill - and the 161/1 available on the exchanges!
0.5pts e/w on Impulsive Moment @ 100/1 OR 161/1 (exchanges)
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