• 1 – Amazing Maria (Ed Dunlop) (16/1) is the first filly in the line-up and represents the extremely successful first crop of Mastercraftsman. That means the step up in trip should suit Amazing Maria but there remains some stamina doubts with the mile and a half. Mastercraftsman was a comfortable group 3 winner over a mile and three furlongs and only went down a length to the great Sea the Stars in the Juddmonte International. Amazing Maria is a sweet travelling filly and showed a fabulous turn of foot when winning the group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood. However she will have a ten month absence to overcome and being in group 1 company for the first time after such an absence are massive negatives. She will be better for the run and she may well be an Irish Oaks possibility.
• 2 - Anipa (Roger Varian) (25/1) is an exciting and most progressive filly winning the Cheshire Oaks at Chester last month. Strictly on ratings she still has quite a bit to find as she is rated 98. However, that should not throw you off. Talent won this race off 96 last year and the trip is an unknown for many but not Anipa. A victory around a tight track like Chester will mean Anipa should handle Epsom well and her odds of 25/1 look a tempting each way price for this Sea The Stars filly.
• 3– Dazzling (A P O’Brien) (33/1). Dazzling was another filly who was promising in the betting after she won the Salsabil Stakes at Navan on her seasonal reappearance but last month she was humbled by a filly she will re-oppose in The Oaks, Tarfasha. Dazzling cannot be totally ruled out as the step up in trip may help her get closer to Tarfasha (possibly like Night of Thunder and Kingman in the Greenham and 2000 Guineas.) It is unlikely she will be winning today though.
• 4 – Honor Bound (Ralph Beckett) (25/1). You would want to be a brave soul to rule out a Ralph Beckett filly after the extraordinary Oaks that he dominated last year. Honor Bound comes into the race off a similar mark as Talent and just like Talant had a listed win under her belt. She was the narrow winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial last month and will have to improve again to feature here. It must be also noted that H H Sheikh Mohammad Bin Khalifa Al Thani has purchased this filly and she will be running in the same colours we have seen being carried from the likes of Vorda and Flotilla in the past. The trip will be no issue and I could not rule this filly out of this open renewal.
• 5 – Ihtimal (Saeed bin Suroor) (8/1). A group 2 winner as a juvenile when winning the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last October. She was a revelation in the off season in Meydan when taking the group 3 UAE Oaks by an astonishing ten lengths. She bounded further and further clear that day showing no signs of stopping and she looks to be ground versatile. She will most likely be covered up in the early stages to guarantee she gets the twelve furlongs. She is Godolphin’s sole represent and she should run well. Her 1000 Guineas run in which she finished 3rd rocketed her to a rightfully promising place in the betting.
• 6 – Inchila (Peter Chapple-Hyam) (50/1). Inchila is a filly who has improved from 2 to 3 and just like her sire Dylan Thomas has improved with a step up in trip. She was fourth of eight when well fancied in a Newbury Oaks Trial over ten furlongs. Her pedigree suggests a mile and a half would be perfect as her dam Inchiri was a listed winner over the distance. Inchila’s sole victory came when there was cut in the ground but she will have to improve a great deal for the step up in trip which is not impossible but in all fairness it looks highly unlikely she will be troubling the market protagonists.
• 7 – Island Remede (Ed Dunlop) (100/1). This filly showed improvement when being stepped up in trip however it was it a lower level. She comfortably won a Newmarket nursery off a mere 66 and has ran credibly in listed races. But she is surely just giving the owners a day out here.
• 8 – Lily Rules (Tony Coyle) (40/1). Lily Rules was runner up in Musidora Stakes to Madame Chiang last month and although she was running on all the way to the line, there is still stamina doubts over the extra two furlongs and furthermore Madame Chiang looked to be going away at the line. The mile and a half I do not think will play to her strengths as well as others and with that being said she looks vulnerable.
• 9 – Madame Chiang (David Simcock) (12/1). Madame Chiang is one of the most lightly raced fillies in the field and also one of the most exciting. She is from the first crop from of the beautifully bred and underrated sire Archipenko and has comfortably won both her outings on soft ground. I have had my eye on her since her easy Yarmouth maiden success last October and I was not at all surprised to see her follow up this year and win the Musidora Stakes. She ran on very well that day to suggest a mile and a half will suit her well (her dam won over the distance). Soft ground looks key to this filly and if she gets her wish she may be very tough to beat.
• 10 – Marsh Daisy (Hughie Morrison) (12/1). Hughie Morrison very nearly won The Oaks two years go with Shirocco Star and this year he is represented by a filly who is far more prominent in the betting then Shirocco Star was in 2012. Marsh Daisy was the winner of the Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood and when she grabbed the rail she really kicked on well and saw out the ten furlongs. Pivotal is known for getting horses of all types and the stamina on her dams side gives her a good chance of getting the trip. If she handles the track and gets soft ground, she could be in with a lively chance of victory.
• 11 – Marvellous (A P O’Brien) (100/30). The most fancied of the Coolmore trio and rightly so, she brushed aside her 1000 Guineas opposition by three lengths on her latest outing and stamped her mark at the top of The Oaks betting, she is by Galileo so she will have a likely chance of getting the mile and a half, her dam, You’resothrilling won the Group 2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (Now recognised as the Dutchess of Cambridge Stakes) at Newmarket as a two year old. Some observers believe that Marvellous has too much speed to get The Oaks trip but I believe she will as the Galileo and classy sprinting mare cross has been responsible for top middle distance horses of Coolmore recently. Examples of this are Leading Light, Magician and recant group 3 winner Adelaide. I believe Marvellous will get the trip well, but has this race came a little quickly? I do not see too much value in the 3/1 on offer as it’s a deep field with too many unknowns.
• 12 – Momentus (David Simcock) (66/1). The step up in trip will be of no issue for Momentus who is the only maiden in the line up. She was third in the Lingfield trial on her sole run this season which was an excellent effort on only her second run. She will most likely be outclassed here but she could well be one to watch closely as I believe there is certainly a listed or group race in her in the future and who knows how she could go then but watching brief today.
• 13 – Palace (A P O’Brien) (16/1). I am surprised that this filly is taking her chance in The Oaks as pedigree suggests that anything beyond a mile will be a struggle, however I am not one to question the opinion and knowledge of one of the best trainers that has ever lived. Her dam was unraced and has produced four black type horses, one being Palace herself and three others by Halling, High Chaparral and Dylan Thomas. These sires usually get ten to twelve furlong horses in time, but this mare has produced nothing that’s won exceeding a mile, even with the aforementioned sires stamina influences, and now the filly by Fastnet Rock takes her chance in The Oaks? I just think with all of this evidence, the trip is unlikely to suit Palace.
• 14 – Regardez (Ralph Beckett) (50/1). Regardez ran credibly in the Musidora behind Madame Chiang but will have a lot to find with her. Champs Elysees as the sire suggests a mile in a half will improve her and she is in top hands with Ralph Beckett (who one this race with his second string last year) however this filly does not strike me as a filly that is up to winning an Oaks.
• 15 – Taghrooda (John Gosden) (4/1). This is a beautiful filly that absolutely crushed her opposition when winning the Pretty Polly Stakes by six lengths at Newmarket over the Guineas weekend (the race that Talent won prior to winning The Oaks.) That race was a bit of a crawl and a little messy but you cannot take anything away from her victory. Sea the Stars out of a Saddlers Wells mare that won listed races over twelve furlongs or more means Taghrooda should get this trip very well. She will be very difficult to beat and I would not be surprised to see her win today and perhaps have a crack at the St Leger via the Yorkshire Oaks later in the season.
• 16 – Tarfasha (D K Weld) (11/2). Hamdan Al Maktoum is very well equipped for this years Oaks as he also has Tarfasha running for him, she debuted when only getting beaten a quarter of a length by Geoffrey Chaucer at Leopardstown and she made her seasonal reappearance by winning the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes on yielding to soft ground at Naas. She beat fellow Oaks hopeful Dazzling that day by six and a quarter lengths and with the form the Dermot Weld stable has shown this year it would be crazy not to consider Tarfasha in your shortlist.
• 17 – Volume (Luca Cumani) (16/1). Volume showed wonderful determination when going from pillar to post in an Oaks Trial at Newbury last month, she got her own way infont and made her rivals play, same tactics will likely apply here as well but staying in front for the extra two furlongs against classier fillies is unlikely. A plus is she has last years winning jockey Richard Hughes booked to ride.
As I said many times through this piece it is an open race. Especially when the trip is unknown for most fillies and seventeen runners does not make life easier either. Hard luck stories are almost guaranteed here. A few facts about the recant running of this race are, the last three winners have been all sent off at 20/1. (Talent, Was and Dancing Rain) That is the same amount as favourites or joint favourites that have won the race in the last ten years. So do not let the odds throw you off. Aidan O’Brien, Ed Dunlop and Ralph Beckett have all won the race twice in the last ten years, so has jockey Kieren Fallon.
I know my preview has made a case for nearly every filly, but my selection for this years Oaks is Madame Chiang. I have followed her ever since her effortless Yarmouth maiden victory and her victory in the Musidora on only her second run and also the fact her first start was seven months previously showed how progressive she was. A mile and a half on pedigree should not be an issue and I believe she will give her under rated first classic season sire Archipenko a first classic victory. I see Taghrooda as her biggest danger as the step up in trip should suit and add to her already excellent ability. Anipa is guaranteed to get the trip and may swoop up minor honours along with the well improved Ihtimal.
1st Madame Chiang
2nd Taghrooda
3rd Anipa
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