The premier event of the racing calander. The Derby from Epsom Downs at 4 o’clock will be of interest to all racing fans around the World. Sixteen colts have been left in and will take their chance in the one mile four furlong contest on Saturday afternoon.
• 1. Arod – (Peter Chapple-Hyam) (16/1). This is a colt that I have really taken a shine to this season. He has showed signs of inexperience on both runs this season but still eased away with a Windsor maiden and only found subsequent Prix Du Jockey Club winner The Grey Gatsby too strong in The Dante Stakes at York last May. Even then Arod shaped that he would improve for the extra two furlongs and the experience. This will only be his fourth run and The Dante has been a super pointer to The Derby in recant years. This colt is one to take extremely seriously.
• 2. Australia – (A P O’Brien) (11/8). Described as “the best horse I have ever had” by Aiden O’Brien and reports of John Magnier saying he would be genuinely “surprised” if Australia got beat in The Derby on top of a good run when finishing third in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket saw Australia go odds on in the ante post betting, however recently O’Brien came out and said that soft ground would not suit Australia and other rumours have been circulating that stable-mate Geoffrey Chaucer trounced him on the gallops has seen his priced be eased back to odds against. He is impeccably bred as he is the son of former Derby winner Galileo and Oaks heroine Ouija Board so the trip should be of no issue. He landed the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Trial, a Group 3 at Leopardstown last September by six lengths that kick-started all the Derby talk but he very much still has a lot to prove. He is nearly guaranteed to be in the frame but I would not be willing to back him at such a short price.
• 3. Ebanoran – (John M Oxx) (16/1). It is brilliant to see John Oxx with a lively contender for this years Derby, his horses have not been performing to what was expected in recant times but all is looking well now and Ebanoran showed signs of serious inexperience when being first past the post in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown but was disqualified and placed second for impeding both Geoffrey Chaucer and Fascinating Rock who was placed first. However I do feel ten furlongs would be the maximum trip for this colt as he is by Oasis Dream and he looked to be only just getting home over the distance. A positive is the dam stayed two miles. The form the Derby Trial he was placed second in will certainly be tested as the first three home all re-oppose today. I do feel that a mile and a half may stretch this colts stamina.
• 4. Fascinating Rock – (D K Weld) (14/1). A three year old that has burst on the scene and is also unbeaten this season. He landed the Ballysax Stakes at Navan and the Derrinstown Stud Stakes at Leopardstown after a steward’s inquiry. His sire Fastnet Rock was a top sprinter and the dam stayed ten furlongs, on paper you would think Fascinating Rock would not stay, but the dam has produced a horse called Quick Jack who was by Footstepsinthesand and has won over a mile and a half and he is also a smart hurdler. Not many would predict that from a mare by Polar Falcon, who himself ran over sprint distances to a mile. His sire and dam suggest he will not stay, but his half brother gives hope that he may. It will be anyone’s guess whether he does or not.
• 5. Geoffrey Chaucer – (A P O’Brien) (7/1). In any other yard this colt would have received far more attention then he has been getting. He has very much played second fiddle to stable-mate Australia. Geoffrey Chaucer won the Beresford Stakes as a two year old and was third on his reappearance in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, he was only just beaten by Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran who both had previous runs this season. The going was also soft which is not ideal for a comeback run and he was also giving the field three pound for his Beresford victory. He is well bred like any Coolmore horse, he is a half brother to the excellent Shamardal and the stamina influence of his sire Montjeu should make sure Geoffrey Chaucer hard to beat. The one negative is he has never raced in a field with six or more runners. That should not be a big issue. He seems adaptable to any surface as well. Expect a big run from Ballydoyle’s forgotten colt.
• 6. Impulsive Moment – (Andrew Balding) (66/1). A beautifully bred colt by Galileo and out of the grade 1 winning Luas Line. A step up in trip should help Impulsive Moment as he is a full brother to smart hurdler Ballyglasheen and he was chasing Western Hymn all the way home in the Derby Trial at Sandown last April. He still looks up against it however. Stranger things have happened in this World then a horse like this running the race of his life, he is the most likely outsider of 25/1 or over to run a decent race but he still has a lot to find.
• 7. Kingfisher – (A P O’Brien) (50/1). Kingfisher was part of Aiden O’Brien’s Chester classic trial invasion last month and he helped improve his trainer’s prolific record at the track by winning the listed Dee stakes by a length. He looked fairly exposed prior to this victory and he was humbled by Fascinating Rock in the Ballysax Stakes at Navan. It may have been he needed that run or even still he could be soft ground dependant. Likelihood here is he will be outclassed.
• 8. Kingston Hill – (Roger Varian) (7/1). Another horse that has slightly gone under the radar during the off-season. He won what now looks like a poor renewal off the Racing Post Trophy last season very comfortably but he did not really turn up at the 2000 Guineas, I would put that run down to the fast ground which he never encountered on a racetrack before and also the fact that it was his seasonal reappearance. He won the Racing Post Trophy so easily and going away to signal that a step up in trip will be of no issue. He is by the man of the moment, Mastercraftsman who is enjoying a very successful career at stud thus far and his dam won over a mile and three furlongs but needed cut in the ground. I believe that connections of Kingston Hill will welcome any rainfall as they know he handles it.
• 9. Orchestra – (A P O’Brien) (14/1). A nine and a half month absence did not stop Orchestra from recording a narrow victory in the Chester Vase last time out, this was made more impressive as he just edged out Romsdal on soft ground and Romsdal had the experience of two runs this season prior to the Chester Vase run. That race threw up last years Derby winner Ruler of the World. The advantage Orchestra has is he is guaranteed to stay the trip and he will improve for that run as well. He is certainly another O’Brien horse to take seriously.
• 10 Our Channel – (William Haggas) (100/1). Winner of the Investec Derby Trial at Epsom last April but that is only a class two conditions stakes and has been a near useless pointer to the derby in recant years. He will need a dramatic improvement on top of his last run to feature in any way here.
• 11 Pinzolo – (Charlie Appleby) (50/1). Pinzolo was well fancied last year for The Racing Post trophy but he was a real no show when being trounced by Kingston Hill. He made his seasonal return in the Newmarket Stakes and was defeated by Barley Mow but he did come out and win The Fairway Stakes two weeks later and the form has been franked since as the second, Master Carpenter has won a listed race since. Pinzolo however will still need to improve immensely.
• 12 Red Galileo – (Ed Dunlop) (100/1). Red Galileo has been tried in quality company for most of his career thus far. He now looks exposed at listed level and I cannot see this colt being involved today.
• 13 Romsdal - (John Gosden) (25/1). Romsdal ran Orchestra to a very close finish in The Chester Vase last time out, that was his third run of the season and he was beaten by a colt that had been off for nearly ten months. Romsdal has still a bit to find and there is a good chance he could find improvement but I believe Orchestra is a better horse then Romsdal and if Orchestra has to improve, then Romsdal certainly has to improve furthermore.
• 14 Sudden Wonder – (Charlie Appleby) (66/1). Sudden Wonder was the winner of a sales race at Newmarket this season but he was beaten two and a half lengths when finishing third in the Lingfield Derby Trial, that means he will have an awful lot to find being upped to this company and he should be well held.
• 15 True Story – (Saeed bin Suroor) (11/1). This is a colt I have followed since his debut last year and it did not at all surprise me to see him absolutely destroy his opposition in The Feilden Stakes at Newmarket. That saw him be cut from 40/1 to around 10/1 for the Derby but a disappointing third in the Dante last month has saw his price drift out a little bit. His pedigree suggests the trip should be okay, his dam was unraced is by Darshaan and her half sisters won over a mile and a half (both by Sadler’s Wells) so there is hope he will be okay. Manduro can get all types of horses however and True Story’s jockey Kieren Fallen stated that True Story was the fastest Epsom Classic horse he has ever ridden. Personally I think he will see out the trip and run an excellent race but if he does not stay I would not be surprised to see this colt drop back in trip for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood or possibly even St. James’ Palace depending on how he comes out of this race. Either way I do feel there is a Group 1 in this colt. The question is, is it over this trip or shorter?
• 16 Western Hymn – (John Gosden) (14/1). The Derby field concludes with Western Hymn. He has a lot to boast about as he won a Newbury conditions race when beating Snow Sky by over two lengths, Snow Sky went on to win a Lingfield Derby Trial but unfortunately he is ruled out of the Derby through injury. Western Hymn went on to win the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown when odds on in shocking ground and to this day is still unbeaten. Not many horses win out of season December two year old maidens at Kempton and end up in The Derby, this just highlights how progressive Western Hymn has been. He is by Derby winner High Chaparral and out of a mare that won over seven furlongs. A cross of stamina and speed that I personally for races like this, I believe the trip will be no issue and is worthy of any Derby shortlist.
Prediction: All the ante post talk has surrounded Australia but that does not mean there is no threat to him winning The Derby. His closest enemy could be closer then he thinks, I have been impressed with stable mate Geoffrey Chaucer, I thought his comeback run this season under all the circumstances was excellent. Orchestra from the same stable warrens respect as well as he won the same trial as Ruler of the World did last year. My preference however is with Arod. He has showed inexperience on all three runs but has still improved. His Dante second looks strong form and the extra two furlongs will suit. The 16/1 available right now is a super each way bet.
1st Arod
2nd Geoffrey Chaucer
3rd Australia
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