Epsom Dash Selections

 This is a great race every year and although it’s not an easy one to pick the winner of, it’s fantastic for spectators and a hard one not to have a bet on. With Paddy Power, Bet365 and SkyBet paying out on five each-way places, I’ve managed to find three each-way shots which could fill a place or better in what is a highly unpredictable race.

Steps won for us at Haydock last week, beating Eton Rifles by just a neck in a listed race. Softer ground would be preferable but he has two wins and two places from ten starts on good ground, and two places from six starts on ground quicker than that. A 54% place record over this trip is encouraging, as is a 53% place record for Roger Varian’s horses over the past three weeks. If his progression continues today, he will have claims despite quick ground and a penalty after last week’s win. However, a bit of luck will be needed in-running – Steps tends to run on from behind in the closing stages of a sprint and so if he doesn’t get his run or gets caught up in a bit of traffic, it could ruin his chances completely.

At longer odds, Ballesteros 25/1 hasn’t managed a win in the last two seasons, finishing last of all in this race last year. Also at his best on softer ground, he does not at first glance seem like an interesting bet in today’s race. However, he put in some decent races at the end of last season and his return at Newbury this April was good, despite him finishing 5^th of 8. At the time, I wondered whether he would run a big race and come into the Dash at a shorter price, but his subsequent run to come 11^th in a handicap at York wasn’t impressive and so we see him here at long odds. Interestingly, he wears a hood today which he has only done once before on what was possibly his worst ever start, at Ascot last June coming last of all. Connections seem to think that the hood is still a good idea for him and might bring about some improvement, though. Ballesteros can run to a high standard on his day and although there are plenty of reasons not to back him today, I’ve been waiting for him to run in this race for a while and have to be tempted to have a bet.

Finally, Judge N Jury 33/1 ran a very good race last time out and is being written off for the Dash because he has been drawn in stall 1. However, the stats would tell us that it’s not impossible to win from the lowest draw, as Rudis Pet did it in 2002, while last year’s 2^nd, as well as 4^th in 2011 and 2009, came from stall 1. His record on good ground reads 14 wins and places from 29 starts (38%). Back to form on his last run, he looks likely to put in another good race today and looks very overprices at 33/1.

0.5pts e/w on Steps 11/1

0.5pts e/w on Ballesteros 25/1

0.5pts e/w on Judge N Jury 33/1