Epsom Derby 2014 Trends Analysis

Stall

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	15	1	7%	1	7%	2	13%
2	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
3	17	1	6%	2	12%	3	18%
4	16	2	13%	2	13%	4	25%
5	17	2	12%	3	18%	5	29%
6	17	1	6%	2	12%	3	18%
7	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
8	17	2	12%	2	12%	4	24%
9	16	1	6%	0	0%	1	6%
10	16	3	19%	3	19%	6	38%
11	15	0	0%	6	40%	6	40%
12	15	0	0%	3	20%	3	20%
13	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
14	10	2	20%	1	10%	3	30%
15	7	1	14%	0	0%	1	14%
16	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%

We'll be paying attention to the horses drawn in stalls 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14 and 15.

Place LTO

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	119	13	11%	19	16%	32	27%
Second	41	3	7%	8	20%	11	27%
Third	28	0	0%	5	18%	5	18%
Sixth	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Eighth	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We’re looking for horses which came in the top 3 last time out.

Market Position

Market Position	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	19	5	26%	6	32%	11	58%
2	16	5	31%	5	31%	10	63%
3	17	4	24%	2	12%	6	35%
4	20	2	10%	4	20%	6	30%
5	18	0	0%	2	11%	2	11%
6	15	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
7	18	0	0%	5	28%	5	28%
8	26	1	4%	2	8%	3	12%
9	13	0	0%	2	15%	2	15%
10	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
11	16	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	14	0	0%	2	14%	2	14%
13	16	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
14	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
15	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
16	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

The top 4 in the market as well as 7th will get points here.

Recent Form

9 of the last 10 winners have had 2-5 career starts

10 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that season

10 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on all of their starts that year

10 of the last 10 winners ran in the previous 35 days

9 of the last 10 winners had won a group race

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Total
Arod	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	5
Australia	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	8
Ebanoran	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Fascinating Rock	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Geoffrey Chaucer	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	8
Impulsive Moment	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	5
Kingfisher	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	3
Kingston Hill	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	5
Orchestra	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Our Channel	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	5
Pinzolo	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	6
Red Galileo	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	3
Sudden Wonder	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	5
True Story	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	6
Western Hymn	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Romsdal	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	5

So, we have our shortlist:

1.       Australia 15/8, Geoffrey Chaucer 11/1 – 8

2.       Ebanoran 16/1, Orchestra 16/1 – 7

As Australia is less than 2/1, this has to be a no-bet race. However, if he goes to 2/1 or more by 11am, we will be having a bet, which will be 1pt win on Australia, 0.5pts e/w on Geoffrey Chaucer.

If it does end up being a bet, the very best of luck to all of you. Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose, and enjoy Derby day. There are few days throughout the summer which carry more excitement than the legendary Epsom Derby. And what a renewal this looks to be.

UPDATE 9.07AM:

Ladbrokes have now gone 2/1 on Australia and so this is now a race with a trends analysis bet! The betting plan is as follows:

1pt win on Australia @ 2/1
0.5pts e/w on Geoffrey Chaucer @ 11/1