When interviewing some of the top trainers in the industry in the weeks leading up to the Cheltenham festival, we asked each of them for their tip for the festival. Some kept their cards close to their chests, some let us know which of their horses seemed underrated, and some sided with a horse from another yard which they can't see beaten. Here they all are (click on the trainer's name to see the full interview including their horses to follow for next season).
Philip Hobbs - Wait For Me (Wednesday 5.15 - Champion Bumper)
David Pipe - "Don Poli in the NH Chase – I’m hoping he goes in the four miler rather than the RSA! Kings Palace is our best chance of a winner." (Don Poli will instead run in the RSA Chase, Wednesday 2.05. Kings Palace also runs in the RSA).
Gordon Elliott - "Noble Endevor would be my tip for the festival" (Friday 4.40)
Harry Fry - "Faugheen!" (Tuesday 3.20)
Jonjo O'Neill - "One or two of Willie Mullins’ entries look serious contenders. Of our own, Goodwood Mirage might be our best hope of a win but they can soon make fools of us. He has put AP on the floor a couple of times when we've felt he could have given a good account of himself. He was the horse, if you remember, that extended AP's break from riding when they won at Wetherby. He has a couple of options and if he could get over the first two or three hurdles safely, it will be interesting to see how he gets on." (Wednesday 2.40, Friday 2.05 or Friday 4.40)
Tuesday, 10 March 2015
Faugheen - The Machine
Not only does Willie Mullins bring an army horses to the
festival each year, but among them there seems to always be some the most
exciting emerging talent jump racing has to offer. His novices this year will
be almost impossible to beat in some cases, and such was the case last year
too, with his outstanding novice hurdlers winning the Supreme and the Neptune.
On May 2nd 2008, the day before Henrythenavigator beat New Approach
to win the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and 5 days before Ruby Walsh and Willie
Mullins teamed up to bring a horse named Hurricane Fly its first victory on
Irish soil, a foal was born in Tuam, County Galway in the west of Ireland and
given the name Faugheen, a name he shares with a small village in South-East
Ireland.
Fast forward 6 months – November. After losing his Gold Cup
crown at the end of the previous season, Kauto Star is on course to return to
the top and wins the Champion Chase at Down Royal. Meanwhile, the same horse
that was bred on May 2nd is bought by Peter Quinlan for €4,000 at
the Tattersalls Ireland November National Hunt Sale.
It was another three years before we heard from Faugheen
again. At the Goffs June National Hunt Sale in 2011, less than a week before
Frankel asserted his dominance over the 1 mile division of flat racing by
winning the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, Faugheen was bought by
Rich Ricci for €12,000. And such began a match made in heaven when this horse,
only 3 years of age, was sent into training with Willie Mullins.
On April 28th 2012, Willie Mullins won the final
race of the Punchestown festival with a horse called Drive Time. Mullins had
had 57 runners over the 5 days of the festival that year, yielding a return of
12 winners, but there was no time for rest among the Closuttton operation. The
following day, young stable hopeful Faugheen was sent out to Ballysteen to run
in a 3 mile point-to-point. He won in style.
While point-to-point enthusiasts took note of Faugheen’s
talent and potential, it was over a year before the rest of the racing world
would see him. On May 11th 2013, Faugheen showed his class on the
racecourse for the first time, winning a bumper at Punchestown by 22 lengths.
It turned out to be good form, with the top 3 horses racking up a total of 12
wins between them from 15 starts in the next 365 days. Among the horses he beat
was Josses Hill in 2nd, who went on to finish 2nd in the
Supreme at Cheltenham and win the Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree.
Faugheen quickened very impressively when the time came and
only needed two or three reminders from Patrick Mullins which probably weren’t
all that necessary; new notebook and tracker entries were made with one name –
Faugheen, the horse to follow over the following season.
The summer came and went and the 2013/14 season began. Ruby
Walsh had taken the reins from Patrick Mullins after the impressive bumper
display and he paired up with Faugheen at Punchestown to guide him over hurdles
for the first time. His jumping was as you would expect in a maiden hurdle, his
progress through the field smooth as he went 2nd approaching the
second last. Odds-on backers held their breaths as he took the lead and eased
clear, jumping the last and winning easily.
It wasn’t a tough race by any means – Faugheen was the only
horse to go from it and do anything of note – but it was another impressive
display from what was becoming a real horse to watch from a yard which had
proven it could achieve anything.
Navan was the next port of call for the exciting Faugheen,
and a novice hurdle over 2m 4f. His price was even shorter this time, a
ridiculous 1/9 – ridiculous for most horses, warranted for Faugheen. We can’t
blame the bookmakers for attempting to deter us from backing a horse that looks
unbeatable, and this has been the case throughout the career of Faugheen.
Making a mistake at the third last, as Faugheen began to
move up on leader Empire Of Dirt, it looked for a moment as if a win could be
in doubt were his jumping to let him down. There was no such concern over the
second last, though, and after jumping it well, the beautiful acceleration we
were becoming accustomed to saw Faugheen pass out Empire Of Dirt with
ridiculous ease to win comfortably.
On December 28th at Limerick, Faugheen, now
firmly in the Neptune picture, was back out, facing what should have been his
toughest task yet in Grade 3 company. Effortless was the only word to describe
it. Just too easy. This was better company – Azorian subsequently proved
himself to be good enough to place in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, beating Apache
Stronghold, while Lots Of Memories has since won a Grade 2 and finished 3rd
in two Grade 1’s.
There were some worrying scenes as three untidy jumps in a
row between the sixth last and fourth last would have put a lesser horse in
trouble; Faugheen’s momentum and, let’s be honest, raw talent, saw him win with
ease. Two months of rest and homework was the order from Mullins after that
race, to prepare him for the big prizes spring has to offer.
And so, his big day came. The sun rose over Prestbury Park
on the morning of day two of the Cheltenham festival and Willie Mullins’ team
of 14 for the day rose with it; it was to be his busiest day of the festival,
and the leading hope was Faugheen.
1.30 came and they were off. The leader jumped left over the
first and Faugheen followed in about 4th place, but lost no ground
in doing so and stayed in 4th for a long period. He travelled and
jumped well, moving into 2nd place approaching the fourth last which
he jumped badly but managed to stay in the picture. On they moved to the third
last and Faugheen began, without showing any strain, not quite to challenge but
to identify himself as a threat, dangerously quickening as they approached the
third – but again he jumps badly and knocks over the third hurdle!
He momentarily loses ground but makes it up to lead briefly
as they approach the last – still in the race, yet we shook with anticipation.
His last two jumps had been the worst we had seen, could the second-last finish
his race? He approaches it on level terms with Red Sherlock but jumps it well,
landing side to side with his competitor. It looks as if the two are ready to
engage in a ferocious battle up the hill – but no, Tom Scudamore is putting everything
into Red Sherlock while Ruby by contrast is simply shaking up Fagheen ever so
slightly yet getting a massive response.
He takes the lead and begins to draw clear. Those behind him
are under pressure, travelling well but unable to match the class of Faugheen.
Another moment of nervousness – we held our breaths as he tooks the last and he
flew over it – he flew over the last, he flew up the hill, like a train on
which the notorious hill had no effect – a machine. Faugheen the machine.
If Faugheen was trying to let us know at Cheltenham that he
was a serious horse, that he was a classy competitor, that he would be well in
contention outside of novice company at the following year’s festival, he gave
us a loud reminder the following month when Willie Mullins ran him at the
Punchestown festival in the hope of finishing off the season in style.
Style doesn’t begin to describe it.
Superlatives are overused in horse racing. We’re all guilty
of it. Words like “fantastic” and “impressive” are thrown about on a weekly –
no, a daily basis, in an attempt to sensationalise winners. The true measure of
a great performance is being left speechless after watching. Words can’t sum up
what you just witnessed. Such performances are few and far between.
Faugheen’s run was simply breath taking. The effortlessness,
the ease, the simplicity, the class. It was all too much to be summed up by
mere words. The image of Ruby Walsh sitting motionless on top of Faugheen,
looking back to see his competitors in the distance, stroking Faugheen’s mane
in praise, is one that will stay with me for a long time. He needed no
reminders, he needed no encouragement, and as for Ruby – he needed to do no
work, as Faugheen delivered the goods in tremendous style, with so much more
undoubtedly in the tank.
It had been a fantastic season for Faugheen. Confirmed to
stay hurdling the following season while stable companion Vautour took to the
fences, he took a well-deserved break after doing everything asked of him and
more.
It was on November 22nd that Faugheen reappeared
on the racecourse, heading to Ascot for a run in the Ascot Hurdle. The run was
yet again flawless, and Faugheen confirmed to us that he was still as well as
he had been the previous season. Approaching the final hurdle, it really seemed
as if Blue Fashion, who jumped the second-last very well, could make a race out
of it and seemed to be challenging Faugheen, yet as we watched Ruby Walsh’s
body language it was clear that that was never a doubt in the man’s mind. He
approached the final hurdle with a marginal lead, jumped over it very well and
yet again quickened characteristically well to finish 4 lengths clear.
The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton was touted as a possible clash between the top two in
the Champion Hurdle market, Faugheen and The New One. However, it was not to be
and Faugheen travelled to Kempton on Boxing Day to face much lesser opposition,
with Irving considered his main, and possibly only, rival. Faugheen put in his
trademark effortless performance, winning yet again, requiring nothing from
Ruby in the way of encouragement yet again – it was all too easy.
And so here we are. On March 10th 2015, over 300
miles from Tuam, County Galway where it all began, Faugheen will face his
toughest task yet. Facing course winners, Grade 1 winners, and two Champion
Hurdle winners is going to be an awful lot tougher than anything he’s had to do
before.
Faugheen’s improvement to date has been incredible, his talent unbelievable, his
potential unimaginable. What this horse could go on to achieve given his age of
7 (the same as Hurricane Fly when he won his first Champion Hurdle) is
inconceivable. Just as the career of a great Mullins hurdler comes towards its end, another is
just getting started.
He has one mammoth task ahead of him, though. Taking on
2-mile hurdling’s elite. The best of the best, the clash of the titans. If
Faugheen is to go on to achieve greatness in this great game, it all starts
here. Can he do it? Just as it does every time Faugheen leads over the last and
lifts off the ground, a racing world holds its breath in anticipation.
Monday, 9 March 2015
Cheltenham Day 1 Preview & Selections
The day has arrived! We’ve looked into the Grade 1’s in
great detail and some of the races in even greater detail on the blog and we’ve
added links under the races which you can see below. For convenience, though,
we’ve put it all here so that it’s on one page. We’re suggesting treading
softly on the handicaps with smaller stakes, while the Grade 1’s which have
been carefully analysed over long periods of time can be treated more
seriously.
Most importantly, sit back, relax and enjoy the excitement,
the exhilaration, the atmosphere, the spectacle that is Cheltenham. Only bet
what you can afford to lose and the very best of luck.
1.30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m½f
Douvan dominates the betting for this year’s Supreme but it
can often be a tough race for favourites and I’d be keen to find an alternative
with plenty of unexposed horses in the field. Second favourite L’Ami Serge is
prone to jumping issues and isn’t an each-way price while Jollyallan is still
very green and so we’ll look towards the outsiders.
Some Plan and Sizing John both run from big prices but it’s
Seedling who seems very overpriced with likeable consistency of late albeit in
races of a lower class. He runs well fresh and has a course win unlike any of
his competitors today. He had 3 wins from 3 starts since joining William
Greatrex’s yard and he could keep up this consistency in what is generally a
tough betting race.
SELECTION: SEEDLING
E/W 25/1
2.05 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m
Un De Sceaux is one of the day’s most popular favourites and
it’s very possible that he’ll have too much class for today’s field. However,
he fell on his first start over fences, he’s temperament will be a worry at
Cheltenham and front-runners have a bad record in the Arkle. We’re looking for
an each-way and Vibrato Valtat is the main opposition to Un De Sceaux after impressing
last time out.
At longer odds, Court Minstrel also looks to be in with a
lively each-way chance despite his bad run last time out. He should improve
from this performance due to better ground, a longer break, a left-handed track
and the fact that he tends to peak at the end of the season.
SELECTION: VIBRATO
VALTAT E/W 6/1
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY:
COURT MINSTREL E/W 33/1
2.40 - Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1f
There are a few interesting trends which can be put to use
in a lot of Cheltenham’s handicaps and this race is no different. My shortlist
comes down to Mendip Express, Gevrey Chambertin and Gallant Oscar.
Gallant Oscar had his last start in the Thyestes Chase on
heavy ground at Gowran last time out. The winner that day was deemed good
enough to run in the Gold Cup on Friday and so there’s nothing wrong with the
form, but Gallant Oscar did finish almost 30 lengths behind the winner. He was
by no means disgraced, but all of his form is on soft ground and he’s fairly
unexposed on this sort of surface other than one loss on good to yielding.
Gevrey Chambertin is still a novice and hadn’t taken very
well to fences prior to the introduction of blinkers in a class 3 at Newbury
last time out before Christmas when he made all and ran well to win. It’s going
to be tougher for him to win this from the front and he has form of 9P9 at
Cheltenham in the past so he’s fairly opposable if we find a better option.
The better option in my opinion is Mendip Express, carrying
more weight than the average winner of this race but probably still relatively
well handicapped. He was 2nd in the Becher Chase over the National
fences at Aintree before Christmas and subsequently finished 2nd in
a class 3 novices hurdle since then in his final prep run for this. He has won
at the track in the past and could easily run a big race today at a nice price
of 16/1.
SELECTION: MENDIP
EXPRESS E/W 16/1
3.20 – StanJames Champion Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m½f
Faugheen the Machine heads the betting and – no prizes for
guessing – we’re not backing him. There are question marks over Faugheen’s
hurdling and much bigger question marks over what he has beaten in the past. Although
he could show himself to be spectacular tomorrow, there’s a better betting
opportunity in the race.
Last year’s winner Jezki was gifted a lovely ride from Barry
Geraghty but has McCoy on board this year with whom he has a much less desirable
record. The market support for McCoy has led to The New One, very unlucky not
to win this last year, being available at an each-way price of 9/2. Never
outside the places over hurdles, it’s amazing to see him available at an
each-way price today and we’ll be backing him in confidence that he can either
take advantage if Faugheen turns out to be less talented than it seems or chase
him home within the places if the machine lives up to his nickname.
SELECTION: THE NEW
ONE E/W 9/2
4.00 – OLBG Mare’s Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 4f
Annie Power is the class horse in this race and although
there have been some question marks due to her being injured early on this
season, she has reportedly been working very well at home and is a better horse
than those which face her today.
8/11 is a good price for a horse which is in such a
different league to her opposition and she’s the bet here.
SELECTION: ANNIE
POWER 8/11
4.40 – Toby Balding National Hunt Chase (Listed Amateur Riders Novices
Chase) – 4m
Again, if we look at some of the key trends (7-8 years old,
top 2 last time out, 4-8 runs since July, top 2 in a chase over 3m+, 3-9 starts
in chases, had their debut in a bumper, a hurdle or a point to point) two
runners stand out – one of the more fancied contenders and one rank outsider.
Doing Fine won on his first start over fences before two bad
runs in November and December. The introduction of cheekpieces seemed to make
all the difference last time out, however, as he finished 2nd by
just a neck at Warwick last month. He may prefer softer ground than this
however.
Ballyculla had some decent form over hurdles but has failed
to impress as much over fences, with form of 3242 in class 3 handicap hurdles
to date. This will be a bigger ask but his 2nd last time out at
Exeter a couple of weeks ago was one of the best runs of his career and if he
improves from that then he’ll have place claims. Back on soft ground with a
decent place at the track in the past, 66/1 is too big a price.
SELECTION: BALLYCULLA
E/W 66/1
5.15 - CHAPS Restaurants
Barbados Novices Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 4½f
Generous Ransom is drifting despite the fact that he idled
when winning here on New Year’s Day so realistically ran very well last time
out over course and (almost) distance. Considering this last start, 11-6 is
probably a low weight for him. Currently 10/1, he looks to be well in with an
each-way shot.
Also worth noting is Horizontal Speed, currently available
at 16/1, who has produced some of his career best performances on his last few
starts and looks to represent value even if he will need to improve more in
order to win this. His form this season reads 2321 (the 3rd having
been a disappointing 3rd of 3 in a Grade 2 but the others all
respectable runs).
SELECTION: HORIZONTAL
SPEED E/W 16/1
Day 1 - 4:00 Mares Hurdle Preview & Selection
The Mares Hurdle being a Grade 1 affair is undeniably
fantastic for the sport as a whole where mares are concerned. In recent years,
it has been dominated by the Mullins wonder-mare Quevega, winner of six
renewals before retiring at Punchestown at the end of last season. She was
definitely a cut above the rest, yet never got the chance to attempt to beat
the boys at the festival - this race was always her sole target.
 |
| Annie Power is undoubtedly the best horse on form |
Perhaps more impressive than Quevega was at this stage in
her career is Annie Power, undefeated heading into last year's festival when
she was beaten by More Of That coming up the hill in the World Hurdle. She's
back into easier company this season instead of taking a shot at what looks an
easier World Hurdle than last year's - however, with her weight allowance,
Mullins has suggested that she could be a Champion Hurdle contender over a
shorter trip in the future.
The mares have a dire record at the festival when attempting
to beat the boys, but this isn't reflective of the talented mares currently in training. There
are plenty of talented mares running today, but nothing we have seen can even
suggest that they're up to the standard of Annie Power.
Simply fantastic, I would be bullish in saying that if she
was to be campaigned as conservatively as Quevega was throughout her career
then Annie Power could achieve as much success if not more. This obviously must
be a temptation for Mullins and Ricci (imagine how their record in the race
would look if Annie won the next five renewals) but I doubt it will be the case
and sincerely hope not. A horse with Annie Power's talent and potential needs
to go and achieve as much as possible, needs to be campaigned boldly to succeed
in and dominate the top races of the calendar.
Let's have a look at some of today's more highly rated opposition.
 |
| Glens Melody was impressive last time out |
Glens Melody was impressive in victory at Warwick last time
out, showing a bit of class and bringing her record to 3 from 3 at that track.
It would be fair to suggest that she was denied some festival glory by
stablemate Quevega despite probably being worthy of a victory herself, and
Quevega's victory is unlikely to make matters better for Glens Melody at this
year's festival with Annie Power set to dominate. She ran a good race to finish
2nd in this last year and a similar display would not be a surprise, but she
has been popular in the market and is no longer an each-way opportunity.
The best English hope is probably Polly Peachum from
Henderson's yard, pulled up on her last start at Kempton in November on soft
ground on which she has been ineffective in the past. On good ground, she could
return to her characteristic consistency (lifetime form of 210411121 on good to
soft or better compared to 105P on soft or worse). However, a long layoff after
being pulled up has to be a worry and like many of Henderson's high-profile
festival runners this year, we don't know enough about their well-being at
home.
 |
| Caroles Spirit has been very consistent over the past while |
Caroles Spirit's consistency is even more admirable, with
lifetime form of 43123111212 (14/1 may seem like a big price considering this).
She has never contested a Grade 1 but her Grade 2 places and listed wins suggest
that she could put up some sort of a fight in top company. Her recent form is
over 3m but she drops back in trip and wears blinkers for the first time so she
could be of interest here.
L’Unique was 3rd in this race last year and it’s
hard not to think that that was her chance, with this year’s Annie Power arguably
a more formidable opponent that last year’s Quevega. Unseen since November, she
has place claims if she’s fit after a long break and based on some of her past
form. However, she’s unlikely to compete with the favourite.
Annie Power has been injured and hasn’t been seen since last
May – over 300 days off the track. However, she is reportedly training very
well and it’s hard to see past her on form and talent alone. She’s simply of a
different class to her opponents today and she has to be the pick of this
field.
SELECTION: ANNIE
POWER 8/11
Day 1 - 2:05 Arkle Chase Preview & Selections
With Un De Sceaux's last two starts having been so
impressive that he's now commonly compared to an airplane and even Sprinter
Sacre, he's odds on in the Arkle and fully expected by the racing community to
justify these odds in style, treating the two-mile chase like a five furlong sprint, taking off from the
start and giving television cameramen nightmares, unable to fit both he and the
field into their views due to the massive margins he will leave between himself
and the also-ran's.
 |
| Un De Sceaux is the heavily supported favourite |
When betting at odds-on we have to attempt to find holes in
the cases of the favourites, problems with their claims to victory. Over time,
Arkle winners have tended to run patiently - in 2012, Sprinter Sacre tracked
Cue Card (2nd) and Al Ferof (4th) before taking the lead two out to win. In
2013, Simonsig tracked Overturn (4th) and Arvika Legionnaire (pulled up) to
take the lead at the second last and win. Last year it was a battle of two
front-runners to finish first and second, but this was a notable exception to
the trend of front-runners performing poorly in the Arkle.
Secondly, Un De Sceaux fell on his chasing debut. He was
under no pressure (he was clear from the fourth fence and was jumping the third
last when he fell) but still made a bad error. His two subsequent runs involved
identical tactics and resulted in wins, but his last start in the Irish Arkle
saw a similar error at the second last. To put it simply, he has fallen in the
past and his jumping isn't perfect.To add to this worry is the fact that a
horse hasn't won the Arkle after falling in the same season since Moscow Flyer
in 2002.
4/7 suddenly looks a bit short for Un De Sceaux, but wait,
there's more - Un De Sceaux is a very temperamental horse who sweats up a lot
before the start and could easily become overwhelmed by the occasion. He has
never run at one of the National Hunt season’s showcase meetings, and although
the atmosphere at Leopardstown last time out may have helped slightly in this
regard, it’s simply incomparable to the overwhelming atmosphere at Prestbury
Park on day one of the festival.
He’s a class act to say the least, but I’ll be keen to
oppose him at such a short price. The question, however, is what to oppose him
with.
 |
| The consistent Vibrato Valtat is probably the main challenger |
Vibrato Valtat looks the most obvious alternative, according
to the markets anyway. His jumping has been fairly strong since taking to
fences and he looks a smart type. After winning impressively at Warwick about a
month ago he was suddenly being touted as opposition to Un De Sceaux. It was
admittedly an impressive win but when looking at that form we have to take into
account exactly what he beat – nothing really in comparison to the opposition
which Un De Sceaux belittled in the Irish Arkle on his last start. At 6/1, he
may be a nice each-way option, but he shouldn’t be a match for Un De Sceaux on
talent alone.
Josses Hill hasn’t taken to fences completely naturally
since finishing 2nd in last year’s Supreme – the first of his three
starts over fences in particular was flooded with errors, and he could only
manage to finish runner-up in a class 2 at Kempton in his final prep run. His
form over fences reads 212 and he may not look to have the same class as the
two ahead of him in the market, but 14/1 could be a big price. My only doubt,
other than the fact that he doesn’t look a natural chaser, is that he may
prefer a flatter track than Cheltenham – his supporters will be quick to look
towards the Supreme 2nd in this regard, however.
 |
| Clarcam will have to reverse form with the favourite |
Clarcam looked a very interesting prospect when beating
Vautour at Leopardstown over Christmas on bad ground. He followed this up by
finishing 15 lengths behind Un De Sceaux in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and
it’s extremely tough to see him reversing that form. His record is far better
in the first half of the season suggesting that he might peak earlier than
would be ideal and he’s also more back-able soon after his last start.
25/1 is a big price for Sgt Reckless who is an interesting
each-way prospect. 4th in last year’s Supreme, he ran well on his
chasing debut to win a class 4 at Uttoxeter before disappointing in a Grade 1
hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. He then ran in a class 5 maiden on the flat in
January – an unusual preparation for an Arkle runner.
Smashing has only run in low class races since he began
chasing, finishing 3rd on his first start in November, 2nd
in another Beginners Chase the following month and 1st in January in
another 7k beginners chase. He’s certainly improving, but a lot more
improvement is needed ahead of this.
Three Kingdoms was also a runner in the Supreme last year,
finishing down the field in 12th. The McCoy money should come in for
him today and his form over fences so far probably justifies some market support
– 1121 so far with the last two both coming in Grade 2 races. He has beaten
Gods Own over fences but again it’s hard to see him competing with the top few
in the market.
 |
| Court Minstrel disappointed last time out |
Court Minstrel is an interesting each-way prospect for me
despite a bad run last time out. He was very disappointing finishing up behind
Vibrato Valtat and Dunraven Storm when last at Sandown in December and hasn’t
been seen since. However, a longer break should be of benefit today, the ground
should suit better, he likes left-handed tracks and tends to peak at the end of
the season – expect a much better performance today than at Sandown.
Gods Own maintained his novice status throughout last season
and began this term well with a Grade 2 win at Exeter before two bad runs in
December which could both be put down to soft ground not suiting him. Back on
better ground, his claims should be better but I’m not convinced that
Cheltenham is his track – a right-handed flatter venue may be more to his
liking.
We don’t really know what Sail By The Sea could be capable
of, even if he is a bit inexperienced. He’s completely unexposed with only four
starts to his name, including an impressive win last time out in a class 4 at
Chepstow.
I’m not convinced that Dunraven Storm should be the rank
outsider with odds of 66/1 insulting him slightly. He fits the average profile
of an Arkle winner almost perfectly and should like the ground especially if it
stays dry between now and the off. A strong preference for right-handed tracks
and a bad record in March are the negatives but I wouldn’t completely write him
off to the extent that everyone else is.
The likelihood is that Un De Sceaux could be too good for
these. However, we’ve already outlined our doubts and he’s odds-on, so an
each-way option has to be the choice. It looks likely that Vibrato Valtat will
chase Un De Sceaux home or take advantage of any mistakes from the favourite to
win and he seems a very safe each-way option. At massive odds, Court Minstrel
has to be taken into consideration for the longshot bet of the day.
SELECTION: VIBRATO
VALTAT E/W 6/1
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY:
COURT MINSTREL E/W 33/1
Day 1 - 3:20 Champion Hurdle Preview & Selection
And so it’s
on to one of the most exciting, important, exhilarating races of the festival –
the Champion Hurdle. 2 miles, 8 fences – maximum class over the minimum trip.
And with
class, the natural place to start is the bookies favourite, the punter’s
favourite, and the unsentimental Ruby Walsh’s favourite today – Faugheen.
Unbeaten in eight starts, Faugheen the Machine has done everything asked of him
since and prior to winning the Neptune almost a year ago. Breath taking
displays as described in our Faugheen feature – but it’s our job now to pick
holes in them, and it’s easier to do so than his price would suggest.
 |
| Faugheen The Machine has been extremely impressive to date |
Firstly,
Faugheen’s hurdling. Almost all of his 7 starts over obstacles have featured
mistakes, blunders and errors over the hurdles. His class and ability to
maintain momentum has made up for these mistakes, ensuring that he has always
stayed on his feet and never been beaten. But what was there to beat him? Purple
Bay, 2nd behind him last time out, wasn’t considered
good enough to compete today. It might be slightly insulting to say that
there was nothing of note behind him in last year’s Neptune, but there was
certainly nothing of the class of Faugheen’s competitors today.
Faugheen
has never run against this sort of opposition. Two Champion Hurdle winners and
possibly the unluckiest loser in recent memory provide the competition today; a
far cry from what he has faced in the past. Furthermore, Faugheen has never
been put under real pressure in the past. Jezki and The New One, lovers of the
Cheltenham hill, will not hand it to him easily today and the likelihood is the
Faugheen will have to fight for this. Does he have the ability to do so? I
simply don’t know.
Yes, the
favourite has been fantastic in all of his starts to date, yes, I’m being
overly critical, but that’s what we have to do when looking at a horse of these
odds before deciding that we trust in its ability enough to back it.
 |
| Hurricane Fly won this twice but this looks like one too many |
Stablemate
Hurricane Fly has won the Champion Hurdle twice and is a truly incredible horse
with an astounding twenty two Grade 1 successes to his name. His resurgence of
form this season has been heart-warming to watch, and I doubt that there’s a
fan of this sport on either side of the Irish sea that would begrudge the
mighty Fly another victory in this race. However, although I’d love it as much
as the next man, I just can’t see it happening. The record of 11yos at the
festival is well documented (in our Cheltenham ground rules feature) and this
is surely one too many for Hurricane Fly.
I’m not
saying that his runs around Leopardstown this winter weren’t classy
performances – they were, but Leopardstown is Hurricane Fly’s second home and
he was always going to be tough to beat there. Barring an unprecedented colossal
storm over Gloucestershire tonight resulting in a notable change in the
official going description, Hurricane Fly is hard to back.
Last year’s
Champion Hurdle winner went on to beat the Fly again at Punchestown before
losing to him three times this winter. They were, however, all creditable
displays (he blundered the last on his last appearance but other than that
would have finished 2nd) and I can see him doing well here today. He
liked Cheltenham and there were very few chinks to be found in his armour last
year when winning this; underrated immediately due to the lack of luck which
befell The New One, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him repeat the feat a year
later.
However, he
had the benefit of having Barry Geraghty on his back last year when AP McCoy
chose to ride My Tent Or Yours. Geraghty is the master of races over this trip
at Cheltenham and guided Jezki to a fantastic win. This year, however, AP McCoy
will be riding Jezki. Jezki’s record with McCoy on board is 3 wins and 2 places
from 7 starts. His record with Geraghty is 5 wins from 5 starts. I would be
much more comfortable in backing him to retain his Champion Hurdle crown was
Geraghty taking the reins again today.
 |
| Jezki won last year but doesn't have the benefit of Barry Geraghty this year |
Not only
will McCoy’s presence be a possible disadvantage to Jezki (that statement may
be considered blasphemy at a time when the racing world are worshipping AP!)
but it will certainly effect the markets, with the racing public wanting
nothing more than to see their beloved McCoy kick off the festival with a win
in the Champion Hurdle. As a result, Jezki’s price is 4/1 and shortening.
Jezki being
such a significant steamer means that those behind him in the market will drift
– most notably The New One. The aforementioned lack of luck in last year’s race
was suffered by the Twiston-Davies charge as the up-and-coming Our Conor
tragically fell in this race last year, badly hampering The New One who went on
to recover in style, tearing up the hill in pursuit of Jezki and My Tent Or
Yours to finish 3rd. He immediately became the favourite for this
year’s race and went on to win at Aintree the following month, but only in a
photo finish and not in the style of a 4/9 favourite, or an ante post Champion
Hurdle favourite for that matter.
 |
| The New One was very unlucky not to win this race last year |
A listed
win at Kempton and a class 2 win at Haydock this season were followed by two
grade 2 successes. He was wholly unimpressive in the latter, his jumping dodgy
throughout to say the least. The heavy ground and terrible conditions may
explain in some part why he didn’t run well, but backers today will have to
hope that in the two months off the track this problem has been solved.
However, convincing or not, this brought his record to 5 wins from 5 starts
since his eye catching Champion Hurdle run last year.
The depth
of the field probably doesn’t compare to last year’s – Our Conor and My Tent Or
Yours aren’t present, and although Faugheen is a massive addition, it does
leave us with four main contenders as opposed to last year’s five.
Of the
others, few seem to be in with a real chance of winning. The field is made up
by Arctic Fire, Vaniteux, Kitten Rock and Bertimont.
Arctic Fire
chased home Hurricane Fly (and actually finished ahead of Jezki) in the Irish
Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, and has a very likeable
consistency having finished up in the top 3 on all of his last 7 starts. He
wasn’t far behind Jezki and the Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown at
Christmas either and was 3rd in another Grade 1 earlier on this
season. He seems to like bigger fields and right-handed tracks but it’s still
understandable that those hunting for value see him as a viable each-way
option.
 |
| Vaniteux could well be the pick of the outsiders |
Vaniteux
was 3rd in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, a race in which Nicky
Henderson has run some good horses in the past. He has been runner-up in his
three subsequent starts this season, most notably having 4 lengths to find with
The New One in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. To me, he’s
one of the more interesting each-way chances for those looking for value in a
race. There are three places to be filled and he could well be in the mix for
one of them, with a good record under these conditions.
Kitten Rock
is also considered an outsider despite the fact that he chases his fifth win in
a row in this race. He has left more to be desired in Grade 1 company in the past,
however, and although he has built up some consistency and momentum, this is a
different class to anything he has beaten in the past.
The fact
that Bertimont is 200/1 with some firms shows the competitive nature of the
race – he has never run in a grade 1 but placed in two of his four starts in
grade 2 company. He was a few lengths behind a well below-par The New One at
Haydock last time out and he would need more than one horse to underperform
today to be in with a real shout.
So, three
horses at the top of the market are of the most interest unless we get lots of
rain in which case the Fly will come into the equation. Jezki will probably end
up representing no value due to the punters lumping on to AP, while there are
too many question marks over Faugheen to back him at evens. This leaves us with
The New One, quickly drifting and bidding to make up for last year’s
misfortune.
Having made
the frame in all but one of his starts to date (the only disappointment in this
regard was in the Champion Bumper back in 2012), the McCoy factor making him an
each-way price means value for the punter.
If Faugheen
is to disappoint, The New One should be primed and ready to take advantage. If
not, it’s still hard to see him finish outside the top 3 (hoping that no horses
are withdrawn in the next 18 hours and that there will be three each-way
places). I’ll be surprised to see The New One finish outside the top three
(which will mean money back for us) and it would be no surprise to see him come
out on top (in which case we’d make a tidy profit).
For those
looking for a big-priced bet, Vaniteux is of more appeal to me than Arctic
Fire, but it’s The New One that I’ll be backing today with the each-way
security making him look like a very strong bet.
SELECTION: THE NEW ONE E/W 9/2
Day 1 - 1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle Preview & Selection
The tapes go up and the roar sounds around Prestbury Park.
The festival has begun. At 1:30, a year of waiting will be over, the
anticipation will have become almost unbearable, and the running of the Supreme
Novices Hurdle will signal the beginning of the highlight of a jump racing
fan's year.
Willie Mullins won the race the last two years in a row with
two very good horses in Champagne Fever and Vautour. Given the incredible
quality and depth of the army he takes over the Irish Sea to Cheltenham each
year, when he describes a horse as one of the nicest he's ever taken there, we
sit up and take notice. Such is the case with Douvan.
 |
| Douvan has convincingly answered all questions asked of him to date. |
He was brought to Mullins' yard this season after impressing
in two starts overseas and is unbeaten from two starts on these shores. He made
virtually all the running to win with incredible ease on his Irish debut at
Gowran Park last November, earning him odds-on favouritism when appearing again
after Christmas in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle at Punchestown.
Again, he impressed visually and won with absolute ease, showing an undeniable
class. The evidence would point towards this having been a particularly weak
renewal of the race, however, with no subsequent form of note so far and no
exciting prospects on the horizon.
The £7k novices hurdle at Gowran did, however, feature what
is becoming a consistent Grade 2 performer in Modem (5th), and, more notably, a
next-time-out Grade 1 winner in Sizing John who came out on top of some classy
sorts in a messy race at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is, however, still an
outsider for this race.
Douvan has been regularly compared to Vautour in the run-up
to the Supreme. They both ran in a low-class race before Christmas, both then
went straight to the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown and passed that test with
flying colours. However, Vautour stopped off at Leopardstown to make his mark
in Grade 1 company in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle on his way to festival glory
- Douvan did not. Vautour beat a well-respected top class horses in The Tullow
Tank on his way to festival glory - Douvan did not. Vautour was challenged,
taken off the bridle and forced to get involved in a battle on his way to
festival glory - Douvan was not.
He has answered every question asked of him convincingly,
but the Supreme will be an entirely different test. The best two-mile novices
hurdlers in existence will all compete for this, and we don't know as of yet
whether Douvan is classy enough to beat them on the bridle, and if not how will
he perform when put under a bit of pressure. The theme of unanswered questions
begins in the first race and will continue for four days.
 |
| L'Ami Serge has impressed to date with some small jumping errors the only setback. |
The English defence against this carefully planned tactical
Irish invasion is led in this race by Nicky Henderson's charge L'Ami Serge. A
much more experienced horse than Douvan, he ran five times at Auteil while a
resident at the yard of Guillaume Macaire (with form of 323622). His
crossbar-hitting days came to an end when he arrived on British shores and
became familiar with the classic partnership of Barry Geraghty and Nicky
Henderson, who led him to three wins from three starts in the space of a month
and a half. He won easily despite a nerve-wracking mistake at the last when the
race was won on his English debut in listed handicap company at Newbury.
He took a step up in class to win an extremely weak Grade 2
back in novice company at Ascot in December, again making it look easy but
making a mistake at the last. He was last seen in Grade 1 company (but in a
ridiculously weak renewal of the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle) at Sandown last time out.
Jumping issues were still evident with L'Ami Serge making an error at the
fourth hurdle and hanging left over the last, but this did little to take away
from the impressive nature of the run.
Harry Fry's Jollyallan has had six starts to date but still
runs green. He has a big engine and plenty of potential but errors and his
immaturity have plagued his starts and limited his success to date. Since
taking to hurdles this season, he has won three races (at Exeter and Newbury in
November and Kempton over Christmas) but finished 2nd behind Garde La Victoire
at Sandown in a listed race last time out, when his greenness ultimately cost
him a shot at victory. He made mistakes at the first jump and the second last
and was eventually beaten on the run-in to lose by half a length.
 |
| Jollyallan has a serious engine but needs to mature. |
Shaneshill was one of the best around for Mullins in bumpers
last year, 2nd in the Champion Bumper here and winning it at Punchestown to
finish off a wonderful season. Since then, he has taken to hurdles with two
starts to date, winning his maiden against opposition considered to be far
inferior to him and finishing 2nd behind No More Heroes when odds-on favourite
in a Grade 2 at Navan next time out. Jumping hasn't come naturally to him so
far but there were sure signs of improvement in this regard from his first
hurdles start to his second.
Alvisio Ville won his maiden at Leopardstown as was expected
but didn't have enough to beat Nichols Canyon, a proven Grade 1 performer on
his next start at Leopardstown last month.
Qewy by contrast was a lot more impressive last time out,
winning a class 2 at Newbury in style. It was only his second start over
hurdles and it had been almost a year since he picked up his last win in a
listed race on the flat at Leopardstown. He was beaten by Aso, who was available
at prices of 66/1 for today before being withdrawn ahead of the final
declarations, in his first start over hurdles and he seems relatively
ineffective on good ground (just one place from five starts on good or better
compared to three wins and a place from eight starts on softer ground).
Tell Us More is another Mullins entry. He won his maiden
with ease, looking very impressive in doing so at Gowran before finishing 2nd
in a Grade 1 at Naas in January. The horse that beat him that day was McKinley,
an experienced contender with 9 starts and 4 wins over hurdles to date.
 |
| Sizing John's form over hurdles reads 121, only ever beaten by Douvan. |
Sizing John has had three starts over hurdles. He won two of
them including a Grade 1 last time out and holds form of 121; the only horse to
beat him was Douvan. Seedling has also been very consistent over the past
while, with form of 23111 since finishing 10th on his first start over hurdles.
All of this form has been of at a very low class in comparison to his rivals
today, however. Most of Bentelimar's form (113011 since taking to hurdles) is
in handicaps, with a listed win last time out to boot.
Some Plan and Velvet Maker make up the field - the former
has by far the better claims, with form of 121 over hurdles in class 4, 3 and 2
races respectively. He's improving but his progress would have to be massive
were he to have claims today. Velvet Maker only broke his maiden last time out
on his fourth attempt and has only run in low-class races.
The Supreme can be a graveyard for favourites and although the
jolly won with extraordinary style last year, I’m keen to take on Douvan. L’Ami
Serge’s jumping errors are of worry and Jollyallan needs to mature a bit so it’ll
be an each-way bet for us here. A few outsiders look to have claims; Bentelimar’s
consistency is worth noting and he certainly seems to be improving, while Qewy
was impressive last time out but the ground seems a bit too dry to back him.
Two longshots which may be overpriced are Some Plan and Sizing
John. The former fits the average profile for the race very nicely and has that
course experience which can be a massive advantage when the festival comes
around. He will aim to lead if his previous runs are anything to go by. This
worked well for him in the past but he will have serious class behind him today
and making all will not be easy.
The latter has Grade
1 success to his name, a weak race as it may have been, and has the impressive
record of only having lost to Douvan.
When it comes down to picking one horse which stands out as
a potential each-way opportunity it’s Seedling that gets the nod. 3 wins from 3
starts since joining Greatrex’s yard, he could well have more to offer even if
he has never run against opposition comparable to today’s. He has the massive
advantage of being the only horse in the field with a course win and runs well
fresh. He’s by no means a nap to begin the festival but 25/1 is a big price and
I’m willing to put a small bet on a longshot in what can often be a betting
minefield.
SELECTION: SEEDLING
E/W 25/1
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